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"ABSTRAKPenelitian ini mengkaji proyeksi besaran kebutuhan energi primer jangka panjang untuk sektor kelistrikan Jawa Bali dari tahun 2015 s.d tahun 2050 dengan menggunakan model LEAP. Beberapa skenario proyeksi diterapkan dalam simulasinya yaitu skenario Referensi, skenario dengan variasi PDRB, skenario Optimasi Supply Side dengan variasi pada reserve margin, perbaikan susut, perbaikan efisiensi pembangkit, serta perubahan peran pembangkit gas menjadi pemikul beban dasar, dan skenario Optimasi Least Cost-Lower GHG. Dari hasil penelitian ini, diketahui bahwa berdasarkan Skenario Referensi dengan kondisi PDRB sebesar 5,6% per tahun, susut di transmisi dan distribusi pada 9,45%, reserve margin 35%, tidak ada kenaikan efisiensi pada pembangkit baru untuk PLTU dan PLTGU, dan target bauran energi untuk gas dan EBT sesuai dengan target KEN, pada tahun 2050, kebutuhan energi listrik untuk Jawa Bali diproyeksikan mencapai 596,69 TWh, dimana untuk memenuhi kebutuhan energi listrik tersebut, produksi energi listrik yang perlu disediakan adalah sebesar 658,97 TWh dengan total kapasitas pembangkit listrik mencapai 136,90 GW. Untuk memenuhi operasional pembangkit tersebut, proyeksi total kebutuhan energi primer yang perlu disiapkan adalah sebesar 1.835,88 TWh (6,61 milyar GJ) dengan rincian: batubara sebesar 131,6 juta ton setara 3,86 milyar GJ, gas alam sebanyak 2.690,8 BBTUD setara 1,04 milyar GJ, panas bumi setara 0,84 milyar GJ, tenaga surya setara 0,47 milyar GJ, biomassa sebanyak 15,8 juta ton setara 0,25 milyar GJ, tenaga air setara 0,15 milyar GJ, dan BBM 0,006 milyar GJ setara 165,7 ribu kL. Emisi gas rumah kaca yang dihasilkan pada skenario ini secara kumulatif (100 Year-GWP) adalah sebesar 8,76 milyar ton CO2.

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In this thesis, we will study the forecasting long-term primary energy demand for the Java Bali electricity sector from 2015 to 2050 using LEAP model. Some projection scenarios applied to the simulation are Reference Scenario, Scenarios with variations in GDP growth, Supply Side Optimization Scenarios with variations in reserve margin, losses improvement, and power plant efficiency, and changing the role of gas power plants to be baseload power plants, and Least Cost-Lower GHG Optimization Scenario. The results of this study found that based on Reference Scenario with following condition: GDP of 5.6% per year, a T&D losses of 9,45%, reserve margin of 35%, no efficiency improvement of additional coal-fired power plants and gas-fired power plants, and energy mix targets for gas and renewable energy in accordance with National Energy Policy (KEN) targets. In 2050, the electricity demand for Java Bali is projected to reach 596,69 TWh in, where to meet the electricity needs, the electricity production that should be provided is 658,97 TWh with a total power generation capacity reaching 136,90 GW. To fulfill the operation of the power plant, the primary energy forecasting that need to be prepared are 1.835,88 TWh (6,6 billion GJ) with details: 131,6 million tons of coal (3,86 billion GJ), 2.690,8 BBTUD of natural gas (1,04 billion GJ), 0,84 billion GJ of geothermal, 0,47 billion GJ of solar power, 15,8 million tons of biomass (0,25 billion GJ), 0,15 billion GJ of hydro-power, and 166 thousand kL of diesel oil (0,006 billion GJ). Cumulative greenhouse gas emissions (100 Years-GWP) of this scenario are 8,76 billion tons of CO2.

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"To examine the history of electrical energy in Indonesia indicated that one century or more, the electrical energy had been managed in commercial. In facts, sixty years after independence, the electrification ratio is only reached 54 percents. In the other hand, the rules and regulations passed that electrical energy is a basic right of people's right and the electrical energy is key branch production shall be controlled by state.Indonesia has supply of electrical energy determined by the primary energy is sufficient and positive interaction to all stakeholders and corrective electrical energy policy. The subject of this study is to change fuel to non fuel power station that is aimed to reduce the operational cost. Another strategic problem is to authority the electrical energy management under controlled by national government that has not succeeded to solve it.Target of this study is to determine the factor, which is affected to increase the supply of electrical energy, to determine the strategic alternative the supply of electrical energy, to estimate the factor which is concerned to increase the supply of electrical energy based on the intelligence perspective. This study used the literature study and interview with analysis description approach that combined with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) as the primary data collected from the experts or the persons who known on electrical energy.The result of study indicated that 69% respondents would like to wish the electrical energy management to be controlled by national government, Perum PT PLN still to be operator. This meant hat all investment and operational cost to be charged by state. The public has small chance to get and use the electricity connection that reflects to injustice and non-success. This atmosphere is the threat of political and security stability. The potential of threat occurred at the regional which producer's primer energy to power station occurred the electrical energy crisis, and another regional has not been supplied the electrical energy. Its implication is to national stability. To motivate the increasing of electrification ratio, the electrical energy policy has been integrated the regional as subject of development and private/cooperative as real condition the public participation."