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Abstrak :
[ABSTRAK
Faktor emisi dan konsumsi bahan bakar tergantung pada berbagai faktor. Driving cycle merupakan perilaku lalu lintas dan merupakan reprsentasi berkendara dari suatu wilayah. Ada banyak standar driving cycle seperti metode Eropa driving cycle, Jepang Cycle, US-EPA, dll. Namun, driving cycle tersebut tidak dapat mewakili kondisi aktual Jakarta. Penelitian ini menjelaskan driving cycle yang diperoleh di Jakarta. Jakarta driving cycle adalah langkah pertama untuk menentukan emisi nyata untuk mengurangi polusi dan untuk mempengaruhi pilihan kendaraan di Jakarta. Faktor emisidigunakan untuk menentukan emisi gas buang di persimpangan Semanggi. Studi kasus persimpangan Semanggi dibahas. Aspek psikologis berkontribusi pada pemahaman tentang perilaku pemilik mobil untuk menggunakan bus rapid transit di Jakarta. Diskusi tentang The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) dan aspek psikologis dibuat untuk studi kasus ini. Penelitian ini juga menjelaskan model dinamis dari pengurangan emisi di sektor transportasi darat, studi kasus perempatan Semanggi di Jakarta. Sistem transportasi perkotaan adalah sistem yang kompleks dengan beberapa variabel, loop umpan balik, dan dipengaruhi oleh faktor sosial, ekonomi, dan lingkungan. Model system dinamis yang diusulkan terdiri dari dua submodel: "Vehicle Fleet" dan "Perhitungan Emisi". Model ini berjalan dalam perangkat lunak Powersim Studio menggunakan data dari Indonesia Japan Economic Agreement Partenership (IJ-EPA) dan Kepolisian Republik Indonesia.;

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ABSTRACT
Emission factors and fuel consumption depend on various factors. The driving cycle represents traffic behaviour and is representative of a given region. There are many standards of driving cycles such as the method of European Driving Cycle, Japan Cycle, US-EPA, India Cycle, etc. However, these driving cycles cannot represent the actual condition in Jakarta. This paper describes the driving cycle obtained in Jakarta. Jakarta?s Driving Cycle is the first step for determining real emissions in order to decrease pollution and to influence vehicle choice in Jakarta. Emissions factors are deduced and used to determine exhaust emissions in the Semanggi intersection. The case study of the Semanggi intersection is discussed. Psychological aspects contribute to the understanding of the behaviour of car owners to use bus rapid transit (BRT) in Jakarta. Discussion about TPB theory and psychological aspects are made for this case study. This paper describes a dynamic system model of emissions reduction in the land transport sector with the case study of the Semanggi intersection in Jakarta. The urban transportation system is a complex system with multiple variables, feedback loops, and is influenced by social, economic, and environmental factors. The proposed DS model consists of two submodels: ?Vehicle Fleet? and ?Emissions Calculation?. The model runs in Powersim Studio software using data from Indonesia Japan Economic Agreement Partenership (IJ-EPA) and the Traffic Management Centre of the Indonesia National Police Headquarters. ;Emission factors and fuel consumption depend on various factors. The driving cycle represents traffic behaviour and is representative of a given region. There are many standards of driving cycles such as the method of European Driving Cycle, Japan Cycle, US-EPA, India Cycle, etc. However, these driving cycles cannot represent the actual condition in Jakarta. This paper describes the driving cycle obtained in Jakarta. Jakarta?s Driving Cycle is the first step for determining real emissions in order to decrease pollution and to influence vehicle choice in Jakarta. Emissions factors are deduced and used to determine exhaust emissions in the Semanggi intersection. The case study of the Semanggi intersection is discussed. Psychological aspects contribute to the understanding of the behaviour of car owners to use bus rapid transit (BRT) in Jakarta. Discussion about TPB theory and psychological aspects are made for this case study. This paper describes a dynamic system model of emissions reduction in the land transport sector with the case study of the Semanggi intersection in Jakarta. The urban transportation system is a complex system with multiple variables, feedback loops, and is influenced by social, economic, and environmental factors. The proposed DS model consists of two submodels: ?Vehicle Fleet? and ?Emissions Calculation?. The model runs in Powersim Studio software using data from Indonesia Japan Economic Agreement Partenership (IJ-EPA) and the Traffic Management Centre of the Indonesia National Police Headquarters. , Emission factors and fuel consumption depend on various factors. The driving cycle represents traffic behaviour and is representative of a given region. There are many standards of driving cycles such as the method of European Driving Cycle, Japan Cycle, US-EPA, India Cycle, etc. However, these driving cycles cannot represent the actual condition in Jakarta. This paper describes the driving cycle obtained in Jakarta. Jakarta’s Driving Cycle is the first step for determining real emissions in order to decrease pollution and to influence vehicle choice in Jakarta. Emissions factors are deduced and used to determine exhaust emissions in the Semanggi intersection. The case study of the Semanggi intersection is discussed. Psychological aspects contribute to the understanding of the behaviour of car owners to use bus rapid transit (BRT) in Jakarta. Discussion about TPB theory and psychological aspects are made for this case study. This paper describes a dynamic system model of emissions reduction in the land transport sector with the case study of the Semanggi intersection in Jakarta. The urban transportation system is a complex system with multiple variables, feedback loops, and is influenced by social, economic, and environmental factors. The proposed DS model consists of two submodels: “Vehicle Fleet” and “Emissions Calculation”. The model runs in Powersim Studio software using data from Indonesia Japan Economic Agreement Partenership (IJ-EPA) and the Traffic Management Centre of the Indonesia National Police Headquarters. ]

Abstrak :
State Owned Enterprises (SOE's) in Indonesia, had a significant role in national economics, but its performance did not show satisfying results. So, in 1988, government made reformation efforts in SOE through issued Presidential Instruction No. 5/1988 on State Owned Enterprises Soundness and Management improvement. But until 1998, all SOE that have been reformed still did not perform an improvement. It indicated from the ratio of Return on Asset were only under 4 %. With economical crisis in 1997, government convincing to continue the improvement effort of SOE to become an efficient and effective corporation. PT Indosat Tbk, as the one of SOE indicated as anomaly in majority of SOE, because of it showed an increasing performance, after government effort to reform that corporation through privatization program in 1994. While several years the financial performance growth rapidly, and PT Indosat Tbk was admitted as The Managed Company from Far Eastern Economic Review. The performance as the result of activities of organization earned profit. However the performance information from financial reports could net be references for defining sustainable performance. According to Kaplan and Norton theory, in performance measurement Balance Scorecard (BSC), BSC model was relationship model that characterized in systemic and dynamics from financial and non financial aspects. Financial aspects represented from profitability and revenue, whereas non financial aspects were customers, internal business process, growth and learning perspectives. Nowadays, with existing information technology, the relationship model of systemic and dynamic BSC model could be mapped through dynamics system approach. By means of Dynamic System those causal relationship were described in causal loops (cause-and effect relationship), which informed the state of the performance system and this information can be used in current decision making. Model of system dynamics approach was useful, because of: first, described a simplified representation of system relationship without losing of essence of main object; second, system dynamics method was suitable for mechanism, pattern and trend based on structuring and analyzing of system, pattern of complex system, dynamics, and uncertainties; third, system dynamics could view dynamic process naturally in non linear behavior through simulation. According to research results by PowerSim program, system dynamics model of PT Indosat Tbk indicated that financial performance (especially SLI) was referencing of " Limit To Growth" behavior. That means financial performance as reflected of corporate performance could not be forced to increase till the certain point. From simulation result, revenue indicator showed increase till year 2000, after that revenue will decrease. Whereas on profit, growth curve still growth until 2003 and then curve would decline. From mapping system dynamics model of PT Indosat Tbk performance, factors that influence and had a causal relationship with the model consist of: traffic volume, revenue, profit, expenditures, dividend payable, maintenance & administration & general cost, marketing budget, research & development budget, personnel cost, total cost, material cost per unit, discount margin, price, government tariff, customer satisfaction index (CSI), operating excellent index (OEI), training index, external factors. Causal loops that formed of system model was presented by: marketing loop which impact to market share, and customer satisfaction; business internal process loop which includes factors due to all cost that spent for production process, and finally directed to operating excellent index; human development loop that was described through training index. Following the sensitivity analysis on selected key variables from system PT Indosat Tbk performance resulted that customer factor such as customer satisfaction related to product price had a significant impact on revenue and profit. Increasing price to 5 % could be enough to increase the financial performance, although market share decreased. However taking 10 % discount on price would decreased a financial performance, although there were an escalation of market share. Changing 10 % to CSI and market share had a significant impact on revenue and profit. This conditions meet along with behavior of Telecommunication industries structure in Indonesia, that still had an opportunity in market (because of Oligopoly structure), and fast growing information technology. Because of that, market research was needed to understand customer expectation and perception of product and services, with the result fitting and matching between customer and corporate goals. Besides all factors above, an available capital for expenditures and reinvestment of business operation development had a significant impact on sustainable performance, it identified from changing behavior of the model. It was accordance with behavior telecommunication that had difficulties of barrier to entry. Because of investment was necessarily in network infrastructures far staying with appropriate technology development. Therefore government could support this condition with provided regulation that facilitated the corporation to cooperate with foreign investors, so PT Indosat could improve the infrastructures quality and operational efficiency, to generate more revenues for the forthcoming years.

Abstrak :
Pengembangan kapas transgenik dilakukan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan serat kapas yang mencapai 464.400 ton per tahun, untuk industri tekstil di Indonesia. Produksi kapas Indonesia hanya dapat memenuhi 2% kebutuhan dalam negeri sehingga sisa kebutuhan kapas harus dipenuhi melalui impor. Rendahnya produktivitas kapas di Indonesia dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor, diantaranya iklim, teknologi budidaya, ketersediaan bibit unggul serta gangguan hama dan penyakit. Faktor-faktor tersebut mengakibatkan pertumbuhan dan perkembangan tanaman terganggu sehingga potensi produksi tanaman kapas menjadi tidak optimal. Kapas transgenik Bollgard adalah salah satu produk rekayasa genetik yang dikembangkan melalui teknik rekombinan ADN. Gen Bt yang ditransfer ke tanaman kapas memiliki efektivitas pengendalian yang tinggi terhadap hama utama tanaman kapas H. armigera sehingga melalui pengembangan kapas transgenik diharapkan produktivitas tanaman kapas dapat ditingkatkan. Di samping meningkatkan produktivitas, dalam pengembangan kapas transgenik Bollgard harus dilakukan pengkajian terutama pada saat dilepas ke lingkungan, mengingat protein crylAc yang dihasilkan oleh Bt di dalam kapas Bollgard kemungkinan dapat tertransfer ke tanaman lain, berpengaruh pada serangga non-target maupun jumlah mikroba tanah yang dapat mempengaruhi kesuburan tanah. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membangun suatu model dinamik yang dapat menggambarkan secara holistik pengaruh pengembangan kapas Bollgard pada lingkungan, baik lingkungan alami yang dicerminkan melalui dinamika populasi serangga hama dan mikroba tanah, lingkungan sosial dalam hal ini adalah dinamika penduduk dan kehidupan sosial ekonomi penduduk khususnya petani, melalui tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat yang memperoleh manfaat dari budidaya tanaman kapas, maupun lingkungan buatan berupa ekosistem perkebunan kapas. Penelitian ini juga bertujuan untuk membuat prediksi pengaruh pengembangan tanaman transgenik pada lingkungan melalui simulasi model dinamik. Penelitian dilakukan dengan pendekatan gabungan kualitatif dan kuantitatif. Metode yang digunakan adalah metode system dynamics. Pelaksanaan penelitian dilakukan melalui tahap: (1) desk study, untuk mengkaji hasil-hasil penelitian sebelumnya, (2) tahap deskriptif analitik dengan metode survei, dan (3) pembuatan model. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diketahui bahwa diagram simpal kausal yang menyusun model pengaruh pengembangan kapas transgenik pada lingkungan membentuk empat simpal positif (reinforcing loop) dan empat simpal negatif (balancing loop). Pada subsistem penduduk bekerja satu simpal positif dan satu simpal negatif. Pada subsistem produksi kapas terbentuk duo simpal positif dan dua simpal negatif sedangkan pada subsistem serangga hama terbentuk satu simpal positif dan satu simpal negatif. Simulasi yang dilakukan pada model dinamik pengaruh pengembangan kapas transgenik pada lingkungan menyimpulkan bahwa pengembangan kapas transgenik Bollgard menunjukkan adanya dampak pada penurunan populasi serangga hama. Berdasarkan prediksi, populasi serangga hama akan meningkat kembali sejalan dengan timbulnya resistensi serangga hama terhadap protein crylAc yang dihasilkan tanaman kapas Bollgard. Jumlah total mikroba tanah berkurang akibat protein crylAc, dan diprediksi berkurangnya mikroba tanah dapat mengurangi tingkat kesuburan tanah. Penelitian ini juga menyimpulkan bahwa pengembangan kapas transgenik menunjukkan adanya pengaruh pada tingkat kesejahteraan petani. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian tersebut, beberapa upaya yang disarankan antara lain: menerapkan teknik budidaya yang tepat dengan mengurangi penggunaan herbisida dan pupuk kimia untuk mengatasi berkurangnya mikroba tanah yang dapat mempengaruhi kesuburan tanah. Pengendalian serangga hama yang dapat mengganggu keseimbangan ekosistem dan stabilitas produksi dengan pengelolaan resistensi hama melalui penerapan strategi refugia. Selain itu, perlu dilakukan pengkajian lebih lanjut mengenai dampak tanaman transgenik pada komponen tanah lain yang ikut menentukan kesuburan lahan, seperti komponen fisik tanah, kimia tanah, serta bahan organik tanah.

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The development of transgenic cotton is performed to fulfill cotton demand by Indonesian textile industries at the amount of 464.000 ton per year. Indonesia's production supply only 2% of local demand, while the rest is imported. The low cotton productivity in Indonesia is influenced by climate condition, cultivation technology, the availability of high quality seed stock, and pest attack. The effect from those factors will inhibit plant's growth, which resulted on the low cotton productivity. The transgenic Bollgard cotton is produced by genetic engineering using DNA recombinant techniques. Bt gene transferred to cotton plant cell can effectively control H. Amigera cotton's main. Development of this transgenic cotton is expected increase cotton plant productivity. Research on the impact of transgenic Bollgard cotton cultivation to the environment should be done due to the possibility that crylAc protein produced by Bt which is inserted to Bollgard cotton can possibly transferred to other plant and then influence either the non-target insect or the number of soil microorganism and has the effect to soil fertility. The objective of this research is to build a dynamic model that can describe holistically the impact of developing Bollgard cotton to the environment, either natural environment indicate by the dynamics of pest population and soil microorganism, social environment indicate by the dynamics of population and socio-economic aspect mainly farmer with the prosperity level who get the benefit of cotton cultivated, or man-made environment indicate by cotton field eco-system. The other objective research is to predict the impact of developing transgenic plant to the environment by means of system dynamics model simulation. The research is used the combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches and System Dynamics method. The research is divided into 3 phases: (1) desk study to review and study the previous research (2) descriptive analyses, done by survey method, and (3) build a dynamics model. The research finds that the causal loop diagram created to study the impact of transgenic cotton to the environment forms 4 positive loops (reinforcing loops) and 4 negative loops (balancing loops). In population subsystem, there are 1 reinforcing loop and 1 balancing loop. In cotton production subsystem, there are 2 reinforcing loops and 2 balancing loops, and pest insect subsystem formed 1 reinforcing loop and 1 balancing loop. Based on the simulation of the dynamics model on the impact of development, of transgenic cotton to the environment, it is concluded that there is an impact to the decrease of pest insect population. It is predicted that, insect pest population will increase along with the increasing resistance of the pest to crylAc protein produced by Boligard cotton plant. The number of total soil microorganism will decrease due to the presence of crylAc protein and is predicted to decrease the soil fertility index. This research finds that there is an impact to the farmer's income from the cultivation of transgenic cotton. It is suggested to implement the suitable cultivation technique to resolve the decreasing number of soil microorganism that affect to soil fertility, the effects of applying refugee strategy to control pest insect population. Further researches concerning the impact of transgenic plant to another soil component which would be influenced soil fertility and plant productivity should be done.

Abstrak :
Pengelolaan sampah kota adalah bentuk pelayanan publik di sektor kebersihan yang dilaksanakan oleh pemerintah daerah. Karakteristik timbulan sampah kota yang semakin meningkat seiring dengan pertumbuhan penduduk, membutuhkan sistem pengelolaan sampah yang dapat menjamin keberlangsungan di setiap dimensi kehidupan. Saat ini sistem pengelolaan sampah Kota Serang masih dikelola dengan sistem pengelolaan konvensional KAB (Kumpul-Angkut-Buang), sehingga berpotensi menimbulkan dampak negatif terhadap status berlanjutan di setiap dimensinya (sosial, ekonomi dan lingkungan). Ilmuwan lingkungan memandang kondisi tersebut, sebagai suatu permasalahan yang harus ditinjau dari prespektif lingkungan. Untuk mengatasi permasalahan tersebut, maka digunakan pendekatan yang bersifat multidisiplin dan integralistik. Adapun pendekatan yang digunakan adalah pendekatan kuantitatif, dengan metode permodelan System Dynamics. Hasil simulasi model System Dynamics menunjukkan cakupan pelayanan persampahan dan emisi CH4 pada sistem pengelolaan sampah Kota Serang belum dapat memenuhi status berlanjutan. Oleh karena itu diperlukan intervensi untuk dapat mempengaruhi kinerja model. Intervensi model dilakukan dengan cara menerapkan 3 (tiga) skenario alternatif kebijakan lingkungan. Berdasarkan hasil simulasi, diperoleh kinerja model yang paling optimal dan dapat deterapkan adalah model dengan skenario intervensi kombinasi. Skenario intervensi kombinasi dapat meningkatkan rata-rata cakupan pelayanan persampahan menjadi sebesar 72,74% per tahun, serta menurunkan emisi CH4 sebesar 74,84%. Kondisi tersebut, menunjukkan terjadi peningkatan status berlanjutan pada sistem pengelolaan sampah Kota Serang. ......Municipal solid waste management is a form of public service which is provided by local government. Characteristics of municipal waste generation an ever increasing along with population growth, requiring waste management system that can ensure the sustainability in every dimension of life. The current waste management system in the City of Serang is still managed with conventional management systems (end of pipe), that potentially could be negative impact to the sustainable status in all its dimensions (social, economic and environmental). Environmental scientists looked at these conditions, as a problem that must be evaluated from the perspective of the environment. To overcome these problems, then the types of approach used which is multidisciplinary and integralistic. As for the approach used is a quantitative approach, with method a System Dynamics modeling. The dynamic simulation results show that service coverage for wastes and methane (CH4) emissions on municipal waste management system in Serang city could not achiev sustainability status. Therefor need interventions for influence the performance of the model. Interventions model carried out by applying three (3) alternative scenarios of environmental policy. Based on simulation results, is known that the most optimal performance of model and can be implemented, is a model with a combination of intervention scenarios. Intervention scenarios of combination can be increase the average service coverage for waste amounted to 72.74% per year, and reduce CH4 emissions by 74.84%. These conditions to describe an increase in sustainability status of municipal solid waste management in the city of Serang.

Abstrak :
Reklamasi wilayah pesisir jakarta menggangu 3 aspek keseimbangan wilayah pesisir, seperti aspek lingkungan, sosial, dan ekonomi, serta dibutuhkan strategi pengelolaan wilayah pesisir. Pada penelitian terdahulu sudah dijelaskan bahwa reklamasi telah mengganggu 3 aspek utama keseimbangan, namun belum terlihat jelas bagaimana pengelolaan terhadap dampak reklamasi tersebut. Model yang di rancang akan divalidasi dan nilai validasi model yang disebut Average Mean Error AME. Berdasarkan hasil rekalkulasi, didapat nilai AME Luas tambak = 5,69 , AME Hutan mangrove = 2,17, AME Hasil produksi ikan laut = 11,49 , dan AME hasil tambak = 13,16. Simulasi model dilakukan sampai pada tahun 2019. Hasil simulasi kondisi BAU didapatkan bahwa keadaan hutan mangrove terancam punah diiringi dengan luas tambak yang cenderung meningkat. Hasil tangkapan ikan mengalami peningkatan karena jumlah area luas tambak yang kian meningkat. Pembuatan skenario intervensi ditujukan untuk merubah keadaan existing, yaitu mencegah kepunahan hutan mangrove dan tidak menambah area luas tambak. Skenario intervensi terdiri dari 2 skenario, dimana skenario intervensi 1 adalah skenario intervensi dimana hasil tambak dinaikan menjadi 300 dengan penggunaan teknolog, sedangkan skenario intervensi 2 adalah skenario intervensi dimana hasil tambak yang ditingkatkan menjadi 300 diimbangi dengan program restorasi hutan mangrove dengan target menambah luas hutan mangrove sebesar 2 ha setiap tahunnya. Dampak pada aspek ekonomi adalah menurunnya pendapatan nelayan dari Rp. 5.000.000,00-Rp. 10.000.000,00 menjadi sekitar Rp. 2.000.000,00-Rp. 3.000.000,00. Dampak pada aspek sosial adalah menurunnya tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat. Dampak pada aspek lingkungan hidup adalah berkurangnya luasan mangrove serta diiringi dengan meningkatnya luasan tambak. Perancangan 2 skenario intervensi pada model untuk menyelesaikan permasalahan yang ada, dimana skenario intervensi pertama adalah restorasi mangrove dan skenario intervensi kedua adalah penggabungan pelengkapan fasilitas nelayan dalam melaut dan program restorasi hutan mangrove.