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Abstrak :
The 1997-1999 currency crises series was a major shock to Indonesian economy. The crises had damaged Indonesian economy, since economic growth declined sharply and Indonesian banking system was in collapse. Should the monetary authority and business practitioners anticipated the currency crises, the social loss caused by it could be reduced. Learning from past mistakes, an early warning system to predict the possibility of currency crises occurrence in the near future is needed. This study applies the leading indicator approach to construct early warning system of currency crisis for Indonesia, both by using individual and composite leading indicators. A currency crises in this study is defined as any observation of exchange market pressure {EMI') over EMPs mean plus one time of EMPs standard deviation. Meanwhile, the threshold level for indicator's signal issuance is set to leave 20% best observations. Each indicator's performance is measured by using three criteria: (I) percentage of correctly called crises; (2) adjusted noise to signal ratio; and (3) probability of crisis following a signal. Results from this study show that there are five best individual indicators that can fulfil all of the criteria: (1) Rupiah REER misalignment over its trend value; (2) Deposit Money Banks' foreign assets growth; (3) financial account surplus; (4) base money growth; and (5) financial account surplus to GDP ratio. From the best individual indicators, 17 best composite indicators can be constructed. The first best composite indicator is the "VW', which is a direct combination of "Rupiah REER misalignment over its trend" and "Deposit Money Banks' foreign assets growth".

Abstrak :
Kalau kita perhatikan perkembangan ekonomi mulai tahun 1981 dan 1982, resesi dunia kembali mengoncang perekonomian Indonesia, yaitu dengan melemahnya pennintaan terhadap minyak bumi dan merosotnya harga-harga barang komoditas non-oil secara tajam, yang merupakan barang-barang ekspor Indonesia di luar migas. Terganggunya keseimbangan eksternal karena penerimaan devisa berkurang sedangkan permintaan barang impor meningkat. Krisis perbankan yang terjadi pada September 1984, diawali dengan adanya deregulasi perbankan tanggal 1 Juni 1983 yang memaksa bank-bank pemerintah menanggung kredit macet dan telah diberikan kebebasan untuk menetapkan sendiri tingkat bunganya, balk suku bunga deposito berjangka maupun suku bunga kredit. Peningkatan tingkat bunga deposito mengakibatkan naiknya jumlah deposito berjangka, khususnya deposito jangka pendek (Nasution, 1987). Kemudian dana deposito tersebut dipergunakan untuk investasi jangka menengah dan jangka panjang yang akhimya menimbulkan kesulitan likuiditas perbankan tahun 1984. Krisis perbankan tersebut mencerminkan kurangnya modal yang dimiliki bank, kurang baiknya manajemen bank dan pengawasan Bank Indoneia terhadap perbankan. Disamping itu, tindakan Bank Indonesia dalam mengelola kurs rupiah telah ikut menambah ketidakpastian yang menyulut spekulasi dalam masyarakat.