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Abstrak :
[Studi ini mencoba memberikan sebuah alternative dalam mengestimasi potensi Pajak Pertambahan Nilai (PPN) di Indonesia untuk tahun Pajak 2014 dengan menggunakan analisis Input-Output. Analisis deskriptif kuantitatif akan diterapkan dengan menggunakan tabel Input-Output Updating 2014 (tabel total transaksi harga penjual). Tujuan analisis ini adalah untuk mengidentifikasi sektor-sektor ekonomi yang memiliki kontribusi tinggi terhadap potensi PPN di Indonesia. Potensi Pajak per sektor hasil estimasi akan dibandingkan dengan realisasi pajak sektor terkait untuk mengidentifikasi sektor sektor yang mempunyai tax gap tinggi maupun tax coverage ratio yang rendah yang kemungkinan belum secara optimal dimonitor dan digali potensi pajaknya oleh otoritas pajak. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa sektor perdagangan, sektor gedung, dan sektor industry mesin memiliki potensi PPN yang paling tinggi dibandingkan sektor lainnya di Indonesia. Dalam hal tax gap dan tax coverage ratio, sektor industry makanan, minuman, dan tembakau, industry lainnya, tanaman bahan pangan lainnya, gedung; serta jasa adalah sektor sektor yang mungkin masih belum dieksplorasi secara optimal potensi pajaknya. Secara keseluruhan, tax coverage ratio PPN di Indonesia untuk tahun 2014 adalah sebesar 74,28%. Perbaikan database Wajib Pajak, sistem benchmarking, pemeriksaan pajak, dan program pengukuhan Pengusaha Kena Pajak (contoh: seluruh Wajib Pajak di sektor real estate atau di kawasan industri langsung dikukuhkan sebagai Pengusaha Kena Pajak) adalah beberapa strategi yang dapat meningkatkan tax coverage ratio. ......This study tries to provide alternatives in estimating Indonesia's Value-Added Tax (VAT) potential for the year 2014 by using Input-Output analysis. Descriptive quantitative analysis is performed by using Input-Output table updating year 2014 (i.e., total transactions table on producer prices). The analysis is aimed at identifying sectors that will contribute to a high VAT potential in Indonesia. Estimated VAT potential by sectors is compared to realized VAT revenue to identify sectors with a high tax gap or low tax-coverage ratio that may not be optimally monitored and regulated by the tax authorities. The result shows that trading, building, and industrial machinery contribute the most to VAT potential in Indonesia. In terms of tax gap and tax-coverage ratio, manufacturing of food, beverage, and tobacco; other industries other food crops; building; and services are the sectors that may be under-taxed and not be optimally explored. The overall VAT coverage ratio in 2014 was 74.28%. Taxpayers-database improvement, benchmarking systems, tax examination, and taxable-entrepreneur confirmation programs based on sector and region homogeneity (e.g., all taxpayers in a real-estate sector or in an industrial-estate area are directly confirmed as taxable entrepreneurs) are some of the strategies that could increase VAT-coverage ratio. , This study tries to provide alternatives in estimating Indonesia’s Value- Added Tax (VAT) potential for the year 2014 by using Input-Output analysis. Descriptive quantitative analysis is performed by using Input-Output table updating year 2014 (i.e., total transactions table on producer prices). The analysis is aimed at identifying sectors that will contribute to a high VAT potential in Indonesia. Estimated VAT potential by sectors is compared to realized VAT revenue to identify sectors with a high tax gap or low tax-coverage ratio that may not be optimally monitored and regulated by the tax authorities. The result shows that trading, building, and industrial machinery contribute the most to VAT potential in Indonesia. In terms of tax gap and tax-coverage ratio, manufacturing of food, beverage, and tobacco; other industries; other food crops; building; and services are the sectors that may be under-taxed and not be optimally explored. The overall VAT coverage ratio in 2014 was 74.28%. Taxpayers-database improvement, benchmarking systems, tax examination, and taxable-entrepreneur confirmation programs based on sector and region homogeneity (e.g., all taxpayers in a real-estate sector or in an industrial-estate area are directly confirmed as taxable entrepreneurs) are some of the strategies that could increase VAT-coverage ratio]

Abstrak :
[ABSTRACT
High foreign ownership of domestic government bonds (GB) could generate liquidity and reduce governments? cost of borrowing. However, they also contain risk in the case of sudden reversal. This study investigates the behavior of the foreign investors in the domestic Indonesian GB market by applying the vector auto regression (VAR) model. There are two factors that could determine foreign behavior in the domestic GB market, namely pull (or internal) factors and push (or external) factors. The finding from the VAR estimation provides evidence that oil price, as a push factor, positively drives foreign capital flows. Dynamic analysis from the Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that the shock of foreign capital flows negatively respond to GB yield, leading indicator, and exchange rate volatility, and vice versa. However, it has a positive impact on interest rates and vice versa. Based on its results, this study has important policy implications, such as government intervention in the secondary market through buyback and debt switch, application of a minimum holding period, strengthening the control and supervision body, construction of a Bond Stabilization Fund framework, and promotion of project-financing bonds

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ABSTRAK
Tingginya porsi kepemilikan asing pada Obligasi Negara (ON) domestik dapat meningkatkan likuiditas dan mengurangi biaya pinjaman pemerintah. Namun demikian, hal ini juga menyimpan risiko dalam hal sudden reversal. Penelitian ini mengamati perilaku investor asing di pasar ON domestik dengan mempergunakan model vektor auto regresi (VAR). Dua faktor yang mempengaruhi perilaku asing di pasar ON domestik yaitu pull factor atau faktor internal dan push factor atau faktor eksternal. Hasil temuan dari estimasi VAR menunjukkan bahwa harga minyak, sebagai faktor eksternal, secara positif menggerakkan arus dana asing. Analisa dari hasil estimasi Impulse Response Function (IRF) menunjukkan bahwa gejolak dari arus dana asing secara negatif saling mempengaruhi yield ON, leading indicator, dan volatilitas nilai tukar, tetapi berpengaruh positif terhadap tingkat suku bunga. Berdasarkan analisa diatas, penelitian ini memiliki implikasi kebijakan antara lain perlunya intervensi pemerintah di pasar sekunder melalui buyback dan debt switch, pemberlakuan minimum holding period, memperkuat fungsi pengawasan dan supervisi, menembangkan kerangka Bond Stabilization Fund (BSF), dan mempromosikan obligasi pembiayaan proyek;Tingginya porsi kepemilikan asing pada Obligasi Negara (ON) domestik dapat meningkatkan likuiditas dan mengurangi biaya pinjaman pemerintah. Namun demikian, hal ini juga menyimpan risiko dalam hal sudden reversal. Penelitian ini mengamati perilaku investor asing di pasar ON domestik dengan mempergunakan model vektor auto regresi (VAR). Dua faktor yang mempengaruhi perilaku asing di pasar ON domestik yaitu pull factor atau faktor internal dan push factor atau faktor eksternal. Hasil temuan dari estimasi VAR menunjukkan bahwa harga minyak, sebagai faktor eksternal, secara positif menggerakkan arus dana asing. Analisa dari hasil estimasi Impulse Response Function (IRF) menunjukkan bahwa gejolak dari arus dana asing secara negatif saling mempengaruhi yield ON, leading indicator, dan volatilitas nilai tukar, tetapi berpengaruh positif terhadap tingkat suku bunga. Berdasarkan analisa diatas, penelitian ini memiliki implikasi kebijakan antara lain perlunya intervensi pemerintah di pasar sekunder melalui buyback dan debt switch, pemberlakuan minimum holding period, memperkuat fungsi pengawasan dan supervisi, menembangkan kerangka Bond Stabilization Fund (BSF), dan mempromosikan obligasi pembiayaan proyek;Tingginya porsi kepemilikan asing pada Obligasi Negara (ON) domestik dapat meningkatkan likuiditas dan mengurangi biaya pinjaman pemerintah. Namun demikian, hal ini juga menyimpan risiko dalam hal sudden reversal. Penelitian ini mengamati perilaku investor asing di pasar ON domestik dengan mempergunakan model vektor auto regresi (VAR). Dua faktor yang mempengaruhi perilaku asing di pasar ON domestik yaitu pull factor atau faktor internal dan push factor atau faktor eksternal. Hasil temuan dari estimasi VAR menunjukkan bahwa harga minyak, sebagai faktor eksternal, secara positif menggerakkan arus dana asing. Analisa dari hasil estimasi Impulse Response Function (IRF) menunjukkan bahwa gejolak dari arus dana asing secara negatif saling mempengaruhi yield ON, leading indicator, dan volatilitas nilai tukar, tetapi berpengaruh positif terhadap tingkat suku bunga. Berdasarkan analisa diatas, penelitian ini memiliki implikasi kebijakan antara lain perlunya intervensi pemerintah di pasar sekunder melalui buyback dan debt switch, pemberlakuan minimum holding period, memperkuat fungsi pengawasan dan supervisi, menembangkan kerangka Bond Stabilization Fund (BSF), dan mempromosikan obligasi pembiayaan proyek;Tingginya porsi kepemilikan asing pada Obligasi Negara (ON) domestik dapat meningkatkan likuiditas dan mengurangi biaya pinjaman pemerintah. Namun demikian, hal ini juga menyimpan risiko dalam hal sudden reversal. Penelitian ini mengamati perilaku investor asing di pasar ON domestik dengan mempergunakan model vektor auto regresi (VAR). Dua faktor yang mempengaruhi perilaku asing di pasar ON domestik yaitu pull factor atau faktor internal dan push factor atau faktor eksternal. Hasil temuan dari estimasi VAR menunjukkan bahwa harga minyak, sebagai faktor eksternal, secara positif menggerakkan arus dana asing. Analisa dari hasil estimasi Impulse Response Function (IRF) menunjukkan bahwa gejolak dari arus dana asing secara negatif saling mempengaruhi yield ON, leading indicator, dan volatilitas nilai tukar, tetapi berpengaruh positif terhadap tingkat suku bunga. Berdasarkan analisa diatas, penelitian ini memiliki implikasi kebijakan antara lain perlunya intervensi pemerintah di pasar sekunder melalui buyback dan debt switch, pemberlakuan minimum holding period, memperkuat fungsi pengawasan dan supervisi, menembangkan kerangka Bond Stabilization Fund (BSF), dan mempromosikan obligasi pembiayaan proyek;Tingginya porsi kepemilikan asing pada Obligasi Negara (ON) domestik dapat meningkatkan likuiditas dan mengurangi biaya pinjaman pemerintah. Namun demikian, hal ini juga menyimpan risiko dalam hal sudden reversal. Penelitian ini mengamati perilaku investor asing di pasar ON domestik dengan mempergunakan model vektor auto regresi (VAR). Dua faktor yang mempengaruhi perilaku asing di pasar ON domestik yaitu pull factor atau faktor internal dan push factor atau faktor eksternal. Hasil temuan dari estimasi VAR menunjukkan bahwa harga minyak, sebagai faktor eksternal, secara positif menggerakkan arus dana asing. Analisa dari hasil estimasi Impulse Response Function (IRF) menunjukkan bahwa gejolak dari arus dana asing secara negatif saling mempengaruhi yield ON, leading indicator, dan volatilitas nilai tukar, tetapi berpengaruh positif terhadap tingkat suku bunga. Berdasarkan analisa diatas, penelitian ini memiliki implikasi kebijakan antara lain perlunya intervensi pemerintah di pasar sekunder melalui buyback dan debt switch, pemberlakuan minimum holding period, memperkuat fungsi pengawasan dan supervisi, menembangkan kerangka Bond Stabilization Fund (BSF), dan mempromosikan obligasi pembiayaan proyek, Tingginya porsi kepemilikan asing pada Obligasi Negara (ON) domestik dapat meningkatkan likuiditas dan mengurangi biaya pinjaman pemerintah. Namun demikian, hal ini juga menyimpan risiko dalam hal sudden reversal. Penelitian ini mengamati perilaku investor asing di pasar ON domestik dengan mempergunakan model vektor auto regresi (VAR). Dua faktor yang mempengaruhi perilaku asing di pasar ON domestik yaitu pull factor atau faktor internal dan push factor atau faktor eksternal. Hasil temuan dari estimasi VAR menunjukkan bahwa harga minyak, sebagai faktor eksternal, secara positif menggerakkan arus dana asing. Analisa dari hasil estimasi Impulse Response Function (IRF) menunjukkan bahwa gejolak dari arus dana asing secara negatif saling mempengaruhi yield ON, leading indicator, dan volatilitas nilai tukar, tetapi berpengaruh positif terhadap tingkat suku bunga. Berdasarkan analisa diatas, penelitian ini memiliki implikasi kebijakan antara lain perlunya intervensi pemerintah di pasar sekunder melalui buyback dan debt switch, pemberlakuan minimum holding period, memperkuat fungsi pengawasan dan supervisi, menembangkan kerangka Bond Stabilization Fund (BSF), dan mempromosikan obligasi pembiayaan proyek]

Abstrak :
[ABSTRACT
This paper investigated whether fiscal policy, especially government investment expenditure in Indonesia, depends on changes in the economic business cycle and whether its impact is significant on economic growth. This paper analyzed the relationship between government investment expenditure and output gap using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression covering three periods of study (1980? 1996, 2001?2014, and 1980?2014). In general, the result showed government investment expenditure tended to be acyclical. This study also evaluated the impact of the changes in government investment expenditure on gross domestic product (GDP) using a vector autoregression (VAR) approach. The results revealed government investment expenditure did not have a significant impact on economic growth.

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ABSTRAK
Tesis ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis apakah arah kebijakan fiskal, khususnya pengeluaran pemerintah, dipengaruhi perubahan siklus ekonomi dan berdampak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi atau tidak. Studi ini membahas hubungan antara pengeluaran investasi pemerintah dan output gap menggunakan model regresi ordinary least squares (OLS) yang meliputi tiga periode observasi (1980?1996, 2001, dan 1980?2014). Secara umum, hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa pengeluaran investasi pemerintah cenderung mengarah acyclical (netral). Selain itu, paper ini juga menganalisis dampak perubahan pengeluaran investasi pemerintah terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) menggunakan model vector autoregression (VAR). Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa pengeluaran investasi pemerintah tidak berdampak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi;Tesis ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis apakah arah kebijakan fiskal, khususnya pengeluaran pemerintah, dipengaruhi perubahan siklus ekonomi dan berdampak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi atau tidak. Studi ini membahas hubungan antara pengeluaran investasi pemerintah dan output gap menggunakan model regresi ordinary least squares (OLS) yang meliputi tiga periode observasi (1980?1996, 2001, dan 1980?2014). Secara umum, hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa pengeluaran investasi pemerintah cenderung mengarah acyclical (netral). Selain itu, paper ini juga menganalisis dampak perubahan pengeluaran investasi pemerintah terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) menggunakan model vector autoregression (VAR). Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa pengeluaran investasi pemerintah tidak berdampak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi;Tesis ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis apakah arah kebijakan fiskal, khususnya pengeluaran pemerintah, dipengaruhi perubahan siklus ekonomi dan berdampak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi atau tidak. Studi ini membahas hubungan antara pengeluaran investasi pemerintah dan output gap menggunakan model regresi ordinary least squares (OLS) yang meliputi tiga periode observasi (1980?1996, 2001, dan 1980?2014). Secara umum, hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa pengeluaran investasi pemerintah cenderung mengarah acyclical (netral). Selain itu, paper ini juga menganalisis dampak perubahan pengeluaran investasi pemerintah terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) menggunakan model vector autoregression (VAR). Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa pengeluaran investasi pemerintah tidak berdampak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi;Tesis ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis apakah arah kebijakan fiskal, khususnya pengeluaran pemerintah, dipengaruhi perubahan siklus ekonomi dan berdampak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi atau tidak. Studi ini membahas hubungan antara pengeluaran investasi pemerintah dan output gap menggunakan model regresi ordinary least squares (OLS) yang meliputi tiga periode observasi (1980?1996, 2001, dan 1980?2014). Secara umum, hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa pengeluaran investasi pemerintah cenderung mengarah acyclical (netral). Selain itu, paper ini juga menganalisis dampak perubahan pengeluaran investasi pemerintah terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) menggunakan model vector autoregression (VAR). Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa pengeluaran investasi pemerintah tidak berdampak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, Tesis ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis apakah arah kebijakan fiskal, khususnya pengeluaran pemerintah, dipengaruhi perubahan siklus ekonomi dan berdampak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi atau tidak. Studi ini membahas hubungan antara pengeluaran investasi pemerintah dan output gap menggunakan model regresi ordinary least squares (OLS) yang meliputi tiga periode observasi (1980–1996, 2001, dan 1980–2014). Secara umum, hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa pengeluaran investasi pemerintah cenderung mengarah acyclical (netral). Selain itu, paper ini juga menganalisis dampak perubahan pengeluaran investasi pemerintah terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) menggunakan model vector autoregression (VAR). Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa pengeluaran investasi pemerintah tidak berdampak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi]

Abstrak :
[ABSTRAK
Tingginya porsi kepemilikan asing pada Obligasi Negara (ON) domestik dapat meningkatkan likuiditas dan mengurangi biaya pinjaman pemerintah. Namun demikian, hal ini juga menyimpan risiko dalam hal sudden reversal. Penelitian ini mengamati perilaku investor asing di pasar ON domestik dengan mempergunakan model vektor auto regresi (VAR). Dua faktor yang mempengaruhi perilaku asing di pasar ON domestik yaitu pull factor atau faktor internal dan push factor atau faktor eksternal. Hasil temuan dari estimasi VAR menunjukkan bahwa harga minyak, sebagai faktor eksternal, secara positif menggerakkan arus dana asing.

Analisa dari hasil estimasi Impulse Response Function (IRF) menunjukkan bahwa gejolak dari arus dana asing secara negatif saling mempengaruhi yield ON, leading indicator, dan volatilitas nilai tukar, tetapi berpengaruh positif terhadap tingkat suku bunga. Berdasarkan analisa diatas, penelitian ini memiliki implikasi kebijakan antara lain perlunya intervensi pemerintah di pasar sekunder melalui buyback dan debt switch, pemberlakuan minimum holding period, memperkuat fungsi pengawasan dan supervisi, menembangkan kerangka Bond Stabilization Fund (BSF), dan mempromosikan obligasi pembiayaan proyek.

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ABSTRACT
High foreign ownership of domestic government bonds (GB) could generate liquidity and reduce governments? cost of borrowing. However, they also contain risk in the case of sudden reversal. This study investigates the behavior of the foreign investors in the domestic Indonesian GB market by applying the vector auto regression (VAR) model. There are two factors that could determine foreign behavior in the domestic GB market, namely pull (or internal) factors and push (or external) factors. The finding from the VAR estimation provides evidence that oil price, as a push factor, positively drives foreign capital flows.

Dynamic analysis from the Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that the shock of foreign capital flows negatively respond to GB yield, leading indicator, and exchange rate volatility, and vice versa. However, it has a positive impact on interest rates and vice versa. Based on its results, this study has important policy implications, such as government intervention in the secondary market through buyback and debt switch, application of a minimum holding period, strengthening the control and supervision body, construction of a Bond Stabilization Fund framework, and promotion of project-financing bonds.;High foreign ownership of domestic government bonds (GB) could generate liquidity and reduce governments? cost of borrowing. However, they also contain risk in the case of sudden reversal. This study investigates the behavior of the foreign investors in the domestic Indonesian GB market by applying the vector auto regression (VAR) model. There are two factors that could determine foreign behavior in the domestic GB market, namely pull (or internal) factors and push (or external) factors. The finding from the VAR estimation provides evidence that oil price, as a push factor, positively drives foreign capital flows. Dynamic analysis from the Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that the shock of foreign capital flows negatively respond to GB yield, leading indicator, and exchange rate volatility, and vice versa. However, it has a positive impact on interest rates and vice versa. Based on its results, this study has important policy implications, such as government intervention in the secondary market through buyback and debt switch, application of a minimum holding period, strengthening the control and supervision body, construction of a Bond Stabilization Fund framework, and promotion of project-financing bonds.;High foreign ownership of domestic government bonds (GB) could generate liquidity and reduce governments? cost of borrowing. However, they also contain risk in the case of sudden reversal. This study investigates the behavior of the foreign investors in the domestic Indonesian GB market by applying the vector auto regression (VAR) model. There are two factors that could determine foreign behavior in the domestic GB market, namely pull (or internal) factors and push (or external) factors. The finding from the VAR estimation provides evidence that oil price, as a push factor, positively drives foreign capital flows. Dynamic analysis from the Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that the shock of foreign capital flows negatively respond to GB yield, leading indicator, and exchange rate volatility, and vice versa. However, it has a positive impact on interest rates and vice versa. Based on its results, this study has important policy implications, such as government intervention in the secondary market through buyback and debt switch, application of a minimum holding period, strengthening the control and supervision body, construction of a Bond Stabilization Fund framework, and promotion of project-financing bonds.;High foreign ownership of domestic government bonds (GB) could generate liquidity and reduce governments? cost of borrowing. However, they also contain risk in the case of sudden reversal. This study investigates the behavior of the foreign investors in the domestic Indonesian GB market by applying the vector auto regression (VAR) model. There are two factors that could determine foreign behavior in the domestic GB market, namely pull (or internal) factors and push (or external) factors. The finding from the VAR estimation provides evidence that oil price, as a push factor, positively drives foreign capital flows. Dynamic analysis from the Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that the shock of foreign capital flows negatively respond to GB yield, leading indicator, and exchange rate volatility, and vice versa. However, it has a positive impact on interest rates and vice versa. Based on its results, this study has important policy implications, such as government intervention in the secondary market through buyback and debt switch, application of a minimum holding period, strengthening the control and supervision body, construction of a Bond Stabilization Fund framework, and promotion of project-financing bonds.;High foreign ownership of domestic government bonds (GB) could generate liquidity and reduce governments? cost of borrowing. However, they also contain risk in the case of sudden reversal. This study investigates the behavior of the foreign investors in the domestic Indonesian GB market by applying the vector auto regression (VAR) model. There are two factors that could determine foreign behavior in the domestic GB market, namely pull (or internal) factors and push (or external) factors. The finding from the VAR estimation provides evidence that oil price, as a push factor, positively drives foreign capital flows. Dynamic analysis from the Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that the shock of foreign capital flows negatively respond to GB yield, leading indicator, and exchange rate volatility, and vice versa. However, it has a positive impact on interest rates and vice versa. Based on its results, this study has important policy implications, such as government intervention in the secondary market through buyback and debt switch, application of a minimum holding period, strengthening the control and supervision body, construction of a Bond Stabilization Fund framework, and promotion of project-financing bonds.;High foreign ownership of domestic government bonds (GB) could generate liquidity and reduce governments? cost of borrowing. However, they also contain risk in the case of sudden reversal. This study investigates the behavior of the foreign investors in the domestic Indonesian GB market by applying the vector auto regression (VAR) model. There are two factors that could determine foreign behavior in the domestic GB market, namely pull (or internal) factors and push (or external) factors. The finding from the VAR estimation provides evidence that oil price, as a push factor, positively drives foreign capital flows. Dynamic analysis from the Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that the shock of foreign capital flows negatively respond to GB yield, leading indicator, and exchange rate volatility, and vice versa. However, it has a positive impact on interest rates and vice versa. Based on its results, this study has important policy implications, such as government intervention in the secondary market through buyback and debt switch, application of a minimum holding period, strengthening the control and supervision body, construction of a Bond Stabilization Fund framework, and promotion of project-financing bonds.;High foreign ownership of domestic government bonds (GB) could generate liquidity and reduce governments? cost of borrowing. However, they also contain risk in the case of sudden reversal. This study investigates the behavior of the foreign investors in the domestic Indonesian GB market by applying the vector auto regression (VAR) model. There are two factors that could determine foreign behavior in the domestic GB market, namely pull (or internal) factors and push (or external) factors. The finding from the VAR estimation provides evidence that oil price, as a push factor, positively drives foreign capital flows. Dynamic analysis from the Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that the shock of foreign capital flows negatively respond to GB yield, leading indicator, and exchange rate volatility, and vice versa. However, it has a positive impact on interest rates and vice versa. Based on its results, this study has important policy implications, such as government intervention in the secondary market through buyback and debt switch, application of a minimum holding period, strengthening the control and supervision body, construction of a Bond Stabilization Fund framework, and promotion of project-financing bonds., High foreign ownership of domestic government bonds (GB) could generate liquidity and reduce governments’ cost of borrowing. However, they also contain risk in the case of sudden reversal. This study investigates the behavior of the foreign investors in the domestic Indonesian GB market by applying the vector auto regression (VAR) model. There are two factors that could determine foreign behavior in the domestic GB market, namely pull (or internal) factors and push (or external) factors. The finding from the VAR estimation provides evidence that oil price, as a push factor, positively drives foreign capital flows. Dynamic analysis from the Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that the shock of foreign capital flows negatively respond to GB yield, leading indicator, and exchange rate volatility, and vice versa. However, it has a positive impact on interest rates and vice versa. Based on its results, this study has important policy implications, such as government intervention in the secondary market through buyback and debt switch, application of a minimum holding period, strengthening the control and supervision body, construction of a Bond Stabilization Fund framework, and promotion of project-financing bonds.]