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Abstrak :
As the result of global financial liberalization there is a tendency for increasing number of portfolio INVESTMENT which in turn dominates the domestic financial market. This study aims to elaborate the effect of shortterm portfolio investment flows to the exchange rate. Using the method of Vector Auto Regressive (VAR), this study employs quarterly data from 1997 to 2007. The result shows that both real and nominal exchange rates are affected by the short-term portfolio investment flows dominantly. In particular the short-term portfolio investment inflows strengthen the local currency. Secondly, in other direction short-term portfolio investment flows also affected by both real and nominal exchange rate. Thirdly, the impact of shortterm portfolio investment flows to change of nominal exchange rate is temporarily due to adjustment toward equilibrium, but not for real exchange rate.

Abstrak :
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengukur efek dari pendanaan kredit bank terhadap nilai tambah industri pengolahan di Indonesia. Penelitian menggunakan data dari level subsektor industri pengolahan. Data yang digunakan adalah kredit subsektor, nilai tambah, tenaga kerja, modal tetap, upah minimum, nilai tukar dan produk domestik bruto. Periode penelitian tahun 2002-2012 dan menggunakan metode estimasi Two-Stage Least Square dengan Fixed Effect. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa ada pengaruh signifikan dari pendanaan kredit bank dalam mendorong nilai tambah industri pengolahan di Indonesia.

Abstrak :
ABSTRACT
This study tests for a long-run relation between oil prices and the rupiah US dollar exchange rate. We discover, first, that the long-run cointegration relation between oil prices and the real exchange rate (RER) is sensitive to different exchange rate regimes in Indonesia. Second, we find a long-run cointegrating relation between oil prices and the RER over the float exchange rate regime. However, in the managed float period, there is no evidence of a long-run relation between oil prices and the RER. In the long run, higher oil prices lead to an appreciation of the rupiah against the US dollar in the float period (post-August 1997 period). We demonstrate that these results are robust to different data frequencies.

Abstrak :
The main purpose of this study is to identify determinant factors of regional inflation in the decentralized Indonesia. Inflation nowadays may spread widerly and more difficult to handle than in the past. This condition has created difficulties for the central bank to maintain targeted inflation. The study employs field surveys and econometric tools. The field surveys are conducted in six cities--Medan, Semarang, Surakarta, Palu, Banjarmasin, and Pontianak. It is found from the cross tabulation that regional inflation is significantly affected by the infrastructure condition in the corresponding regions. Aside from the infrastructure condition, the logistic analysis concludes that regional inflation is also affected by local regulations. However, infrastructure still has a larger effect on inflation. The econometric methodology use unit root and Engle-Granger cointegration tests to prove whether the purchasing power parity among regions holds. It is found that purchasing power parity does not hold for all regions. Another tool is the variance decomposition?it is used to determine whether regional inflation is dominantly monetary or non-monetary factors. This study found that non-monetary factors are main contributors to regional inflation. Pooled data estimation with fixed effect shows that inflation is significantly influenced by non-monetary factors--the growths of local government revenues, routine expenditures, and local transportation costs. Local government routine expenditures have the largest elasticity on inflation.