Metode Credit Risk+ digunakan untuk menghitung Economic Capital akibat risiko gagal bayar (default) pelanggan pada PT Toyota Astra Financial Services selama periode Januari 2007 hingga Desember 2010. Penggunaan metode Credit Risk+ yang membutuhkan input data sederhana, berupa portofolio eksposur default dan recovery rates, serta tidak mengasumsikan penyebab default, cocok digunakan untuk perhitungan risiko kredit retail. Asumsi default atau non performing loan menggunakan ketentuan Bank Indonesia, yaitu saat tunggakan melebihi 90 hari. Metode pengukuran Credit Risk+ dilakukan dalam tiga tahap, pertama dengan menghitung eksposur default portofolio, kedua dengan menghitung frequency of defaults, ketiga dengan menghitung probability of default yang digunakan untuk mencari distribution of losses yang terjadi pada PT Toyota Astra Financial Services. Frequency of defaults dihitung dengan menggunakan asumsi tingkat keyakinan sebesar 99%. Distribution of losses dihitung diperoleh dengan menghitung besarnya expected loss, unexpected loss serta economic capital. Besarnya modal yang digunakan untuk menutup unexpected loss inilah yang disebut sebagai economic capital. Dalam penelitian ini dilakukan backtesting dengan menggunakan loglikelihood ratio (LR) Test, dan diapatkan hasil sebesar 0 dimana hasil tersebut lebih kecil dibandingkan nilai kritis chi-squared sebesar 6.6439. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa metode Credit Risk+ yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini masih valid digunakan sebagai model internal untuk mengukur risiko kredit dan menghitung Economic Capital pada PT Toyota Astra Financial Services.
Credit Risk + methods is used to calculate the economic capital of customer default risk at PT Toyota Astra Financial Services during the period of January 2007 to December 2010. Credit Risk + method only requires simple data input, which is portfolio exposure to default and recovery rates, and do not assume the cause of default. With simplicity offered, this method is suitable for retail credit risk calculations. The assumption of non-performing loan or default is based of Bank Indonesia regulation, when the overdue days of defaults exceed 90 days. Credit Risk + measurement methods carried out in three stages, first by calculating the portfolio default exposure, second by counting the frequency of defaults, finally calculating the probability of default which is used to find the distribution of losses that occurred at PT Toyota Astra Financial Services. Frequency of defaults is calculated using the assumption of 99% confidence level. The Distribution of losses is obtained by calculating the expected loss, unexpected loss and economic capital. The amount of capital used to cover unexpected loss is referred as economic capital. In this work, backtesting is done by using Loglikelihood Ratio (LR) Test, and the obtained results is 0 which is smaller than the critical value of chi-squared of 6.6439. These results indicate that the method of Credit Risk + used in this work is still valid and can be used as an internal model to measure credit risk and calculate economic capital at PT Toyota Astra Financial Services. |
