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Since Indonesia does not have a good vita! statistics registrationsystem, fertility rates for the country as a whole and any administrativesubdivisions must be estimated indirectly. This paper summarizes estimatesresulting from the application of four brdu-ect estimation techniques to sevenIndonesian data sets. The own-children method, the last live birth method, thePalmore method and the Rele method were applied to all seven data sets:Estimates were prepared for the whole country and its three major regions for1971 through 1991. Estimates for individual provinces were also calculated forsome dates. In addition, estimates from other methods, available for somedates and subnational areas, are presented The data sets used are the 1971Census, the 1976 Intercensal Survey, the 1980 Census, the 1985 Intercensalway; the 1987 National Indonesia Contraceptive Prevalence Survey; the I 990Census, and the 1991 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey. The resultsshow that fertility in Indonesia fell by at least thirty-nine percent between 1971and 1991, but the various methods do not agree on the levels of fertility,particularly the earliest dates .By 1991, however; three estimates of the totalfertility rate for Indonesia as a whole are in as a whole are in a small range:from a low estimate of 3.22 to a high of 3.35. Fertility declined rapidly in allof the major regions of the country, although fertility started at higher levelsoutside of Java and Bali and hence remains at higher levels today despiterapid declines. |
