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The aim of the present study is to build somemathematical models and then to forecast some fertility parametersin urban area of Bangladesh. For this purpose, the secondary timeseries data on Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Total Fertility Rate (FFR).Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) and Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)of various issues duly published by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics(BBS) have been used in the present study. A few mathematical timetrend models have been fitted to time series data of CBR, TFR, GRRand NRR It is _found that the CBR follows quadratic H.e. parabolic)polynomial model while the TPR, GRR and NRR follow simplelinear regression model. Model validation technique .such as Cross-Validity Prediction Power (C VFP), pi, , is applied to these modelsto verify how much these models are valid or not. It was found thatall these models are more than 95%, 79%, 82%, and 72% stablerespectively and their shrinkages are only 0.00739Z 0.032l33.0. 027916, and 0.0424229, respectively. These rates have beenforecasted during 1999-2005 using these time trend models. |
