Tesis ini dilatarbelakangi oleh realisasi laju penurunan kemiskinan di Indonesia yang berjalan lambat. Konsentrasi analisis dalam penelitian ini, membahas komposisi pertumbuhan ekonomi sektoral dan migrasi terhadap pengurangan kemiskinan di Indonesia, mengingat kedua hal tersebut merupakan determinan dalam pengurangan kemiskinan. Ruang lingkup sektoral yang dicakup di sini, meliputi wilayah pedesaan dan perkotaan serta lapangan usaha. Tujuan penelitian ini, untuk menganalisis dampak pertumbuhan ekonomi sektoral dan migrasi terhadap laju pengurangan tingkat kemiskinan, baik untuk wilayah pedesaan, perkotaan dan nasional.Model penelitian ini ada dua. Model I (konsumsi perkapita riil masyarakat pedesaan dan perkotaan). Model II (PDB riil perkapita sektoral). Pada model II, sektor ekonomi dibagi menjadi 4 sektor berdasarkan keterkaitan sektor (berdasarkan Tabel Input Output Indonesia 2008). Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa, (1) Sektor kunci mencakup sektor manufaktur. (2) Sektor forward oriented mencakup sektor pertanian. (3) Sektor backward oriented mencakup sektor listrik, gas, air bersih; sektor bangunan; sektor perdagangan, hotel, restoran; sektor transportasi, komunikasi; sektor jasa. (4) Sektor independent mencakup sektor keuangan, bank; sektor pertambangan, penggalian. Model I diestimasi dengan pooled regression residual. Model II diestimasi dengan bootstrap regression residual.Hasil pembentukan model I menunjukkan bahwa laju pertumbuhan perkotaan hanya mampu mempercepat laju pengurangan kemiskinan di perkotaan dan nasional, namun menyebabkan tingkat kemiskinan di pedesaan bertambah. Laju pertumbuhan pedesaan, mempercepat laju penurunan kemiskinan di pedesaan dan nasional, namun menyebabkan tingkat kemiskinan di perkotaan bertambah. Laju migrasi mempercepat laju pengurangan kemiskinan nasional dan menyebabkan tingkat kemiskinan di perkotaan bertambah. Hasil model II menunjukkan bahwa laju pertumbuhan sektor kunci tidak bersifat inklusif. Laju pertumbuhan sektor forward oriented bersifat inklusif di semua wilayah. Laju pertumbuhan sektor backward oriented bersifat inklusif di perkotaan dan nasional. Laju pertumbuhan sektor independent bersifat inklusif di pedesaan.
This thesis is motivated by the realization rate of poverty reduction in Indonesia that is still running slow. Concentration analysis in this study, discusses the sectoral composition of economic growth and migration on poverty reduction in Indonesia, since both of these are determinant of poverty reduction. Sectoral scope in this thesis, covering urban and rural areas as well as the field of business. The purpose of this study, to analyze the impact of sectoral growth and the rate of migration on poverty reduction, both for rural, urban and national.Two model used here. Model I (real per capita consumption of rural and urban). Model II (real GDP per capita sectoral). In model II, the economy is divided into four sectors based on it?s linkage (based on Table Input Output Indonesia 2008). The results are, (1) Key sector covering the manufacture. (2) Forward-oriented sector covering the agriculture. (3) Backward oriented sectors include electricity, gas, water; construction; trade, hotels, restaurants; transportation, communication, and the service. (4) Independent sector includes the financial sector, banks; mining, quarrying. First Model, estimated by pooled regression. Model II was estimated by bootstrap regression residual.First modeling shows that rate of urban growth accelerate of poverty reduction in urban and national, but it causes rural poverty increased. Rural growth, accelerate of poverty reduction in rural and nationwide, but it causes urban poverty increased. Migration, accelerate of poverty reduction nationally and led to increased levels of poverty in urban areas. Second model, indicate that growth rate of key sector is not inclusive. Growth rate of forward oriented sectors is inclusive in all areas. The growth rate of the backward oriented sectors, inclusive in urban and national. The growth rate of independent sector, was inclusif in rural. |
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