Tesis ini membahas pengamh pola belanja pemerintah provinsi di Indonesia terhadap investasi swasta di provinsi terkait. Penelitian ini menggunalcan metodc Regresi Data Panel - Fixed Effect Methods (FEM) dan mencakup 19 provinsi dalam periode tahun 2003 - 2006. Hasil penelitian menyimpulkan bahwa bclanja operasional dan belanja modal pemerintah daerah secara agregat dan disagregat pcrpengaruh signiiikan dan berkorelasi positif dengan investasi swasta di provinsi terkait. Analisis lebih lanjut menyimpulkan bahwa pengaruh belanja operasional terhadap investasi lebih besar darlpada pengaruh belanja modal. Simpulan yang sama dipemleh jika sampel provinsi dikelompokan dalam kelompok provinsi besar, sedang, dan kecil, kecuali dalam kelompok provinsi kecil, di mana belanja modal tidak berpengaruh signifikan dan pengaruh bclanja opcrasional sama dengan pcngaruh belanja modal. Selain itu, penelitian terhadap variabel-variabel lain yang diamati menunjukan bahwa PDRB, Inflasi, dan Angkatan Kerja juga perpengaruh signiiikan dan berkorelasi positif. Kemudian, UMR berpengaruh signifikan dengan korolasi negatif. Namun, Persentasc Perubahan PDRB dan IPM tidak signifikan berpengaruh walau berkorelasi positif
This thesis studies the effect of government expenditures in Indonesia on private investment in the related province. This study used Data Panel Regression- Fixed EtTect Method (FEM) and covered 19 provinces for period of 2003- 2006. The result of this study found that local govemment operational expenditures and capital expenditures in aggregate and disaggregate significantly effect and positively correlated with private investment in the related province. Further analysis concluded that the eifect of operational expenditures is greater than that of capital expenditures. The same conclusion is obtained if the same sample is grouped into 3 (three) groups: large, middle, and smalL except for small province group, which the eifect of capital expenditures is insignificant and the effect of operational expenditures is equal to the eB`ect of capital expenditures. Beside it, study on other observed variables found that PDRB, inflation, and labor force also have significant effect and positive correlation. On the other hand, Regional Minimum Wage (UNH1) has significant effect but negative correlation. However, percentage change in PDRB and HDI does not have significant effect, even though have positive correlation. |
