[ABSTRAK
Berdasarkan keyakinan bahwa siklus bisnis dapat mempengaruhi kinerjaperekonomian secara keseluruhan, penulis menganggap bahwa manajemen siklusbisnis adalah sesuatu yang penting untuk dilakukan. Perekonomian yang stabil,dalam persepektif sosial, kenyataannya lebih dipilih dibandingkan denganperekonomian dengan volatilitas yang tinggi.Manajemen siklus bisnis yang efektif harus didasarkan pada modelrepresentatif yang baik. Sayangnya, pemodelan siklus bisnis sampai saat inibelumlah tuntas. Evaluasi terhadap model RBC, model yang dianggap paling baikkinerjanya dalam menjelaskan siklus bisnis sampai saat ini, menunjukkan bahwamodel tersebut masih banyak mengandung kekurangan substansial yangfundamental. Oleh karenanya, sebagai bagian dari penelitian secara keseluruhan,penulis mengajukan sebuah model yang dinamakan Model Siklus Bisnis BerbasisAliran?Flow-based Business Cycle (FBC)?yang diharapkan mampu menutupikekurangan-kekurangan yang ada pada RBC.Tidak seperti penelitian berbasis RBC lainnya, penulis menjauh dari carakonvensional dalam kalibrasi model: penyesuaian spesifikasi fungsi utilitasdan/atau penyesuaian parameter-parameter sistem, baik jenis maupun jumlahnya.Fokus diarahkan pada mekanisme optimalisasi yang ada dalam model RBC danmenunjukkan bahwa mekanisme yang digunakan terlalu utopia dan tidak masukakal. Dengan menganalisis sistem secara utuh, penulis menawarkan sebuahmekanisme optimalisasi utilisasi yang cukup sederhana yang ketika digabungkandengan mekanisme penyesuaian variabel ekonomi secara gradual mampumenghasilkan sebuah model yang tidak hanya mampu menjelaskan fakta-faktasiklus bisnis Amerika Serikat dengan lebih akurat, namun mampu memberikancara pandang lain yang berguna bagi pemahaman siklus bisnis.Implikasi-implikasi FBC kemudian akan dimanfaatkan untuk menetapkansejumlah kebijakan umum berkaitan dengan keinginan agar sebuah perekonomianbisa berada dalam jalur pertumbuhan yang tinggi dan stabil. Alih-alih mendetil,kebijakan-kebijakan tersebut masih bersifat umum dan berada dalam tataranfilosofis. Diharapkan, penelitian-penelitian selanjutnya akan mampumemanfaatkan model tersebut untuk menyusun sebuah kebijakan yang baik danlebih operasional.
ABSTRACT
Based on a belief that business cycle has substantial effect to theperformance of the economy as a whole, I argue that the management of thebusiness cycle is something important to do. Stable economy, in the socialperspective and legal context, has been proven to be desireable compare tovolatile and unstable one.It is logical to expect that an effective management of the business cycleshould be based on a good, reliable, and accurate model. Unfortunately, businesscycle as a phenomenon has not been succesfully modeled to date. RBC models,considered to be the best model available in the realm, shows many substantialand fundamental shortcomings. Therefore, to fulfil the ultimate objective tooutline general policy to business cycle, I was forced to propose an alternativemodel?Flow-based Business Cycle (FBC), expected to perform better than RBCin explaining business cycle stylized facts and aspects beyond, but essential to,overall cycle undestanding.Unlike other RBC-based research, I kept myself away from conventionalapproach in model calibration, where attention is usually put in utility functionspecification and/or adjustment of system parameters, qualitatively andquantitatively. Focus is redirected to evaluate inherent optimizing mechanisms inRBC models and show that this mechanism is not only too complex but alsoquestionable. Analyzing the system as a whole, I then offer a much simplerutilization optimization mechanism that, when combined with the adjustmentmechanism of gradual economic variables, able to produce a model that is notonly able to explain the business cycle model stylized facts more accurately, butalso provide another useful and important insights.FBC?s behaviors and implications will then be used to establish a numberof general policies useful to steer economy into a path of high and stableeconomic growth. It is important to stress, though, the policies are general andphilosophical, rather than detailed and operational guideline. Hopefully, thisinitial work can trigger future studies, which able to utilize this proposed modelsin a more fruitful and practice ways.;Based on a belief that business cycle has substantial effect to theperformance of the economy as a whole, I argue that the management of thebusiness cycle is something important to do. Stable economy, in the socialperspective and legal context, has been proven to be desireable compare tovolatile and unstable one.It is logical to expect that an effective management of the business cycleshould be based on a good, reliable, and accurate model. Unfortunately, businesscycle as a phenomenon has not been succesfully modeled to date. RBC models,considered to be the best model available in the realm, shows many substantialand fundamental shortcomings. Therefore, to fulfil the ultimate objective tooutline general policy to business cycle, I was forced to propose an alternativemodel—Flow-based Business Cycle (FBC), expected to perform better than RBCin explaining business cycle stylized facts and aspects beyond, but essential to,overall cycle undestanding.Unlike other RBC-based research, I kept myself away from conventionalapproach in model calibration, where attention is usually put in utility functionspecification and/or adjustment of system parameters, qualitatively andquantitatively. Focus is redirected to evaluate inherent optimizing mechanisms inRBC models and show that this mechanism is not only too complex but alsoquestionable. Analyzing the system as a whole, I then offer a much simplerutilization optimization mechanism that, when combined with the adjustmentmechanism of gradual economic variables, able to produce a model that is notonly able to explain the business cycle model stylized facts more accurately, butalso provide another useful and important insights.FBC’s behaviors and implications will then be used to establish a numberof general policies useful to steer economy into a path of high and stableeconomic growth. It is important to stress, though, the policies are general andphilosophical, rather than detailed and operational guideline. Hopefully, thisinitial work can trigger future studies, which able to utilize this proposed modelsin a more fruitful and practice ways., Based on a belief that business cycle has substantial effect to theperformance of the economy as a whole, I argue that the management of thebusiness cycle is something important to do. Stable economy, in the socialperspective and legal context, has been proven to be desireable compare tovolatile and unstable one.It is logical to expect that an effective management of the business cycleshould be based on a good, reliable, and accurate model. Unfortunately, businesscycle as a phenomenon has not been succesfully modeled to date. RBC models,considered to be the best model available in the realm, shows many substantialand fundamental shortcomings. Therefore, to fulfil the ultimate objective tooutline general policy to business cycle, I was forced to propose an alternativemodel—Flow-based Business Cycle (FBC), expected to perform better than RBCin explaining business cycle stylized facts and aspects beyond, but essential to,overall cycle undestanding.Unlike other RBC-based research, I kept myself away from conventionalapproach in model calibration, where attention is usually put in utility functionspecification and/or adjustment of system parameters, qualitatively andquantitatively. Focus is redirected to evaluate inherent optimizing mechanisms inRBC models and show that this mechanism is not only too complex but alsoquestionable. Analyzing the system as a whole, I then offer a much simplerutilization optimization mechanism that, when combined with the adjustmentmechanism of gradual economic variables, able to produce a model that is notonly able to explain the business cycle model stylized facts more accurately, butalso provide another useful and important insights.FBC’s behaviors and implications will then be used to establish a numberof general policies useful to steer economy into a path of high and stableeconomic growth. It is important to stress, though, the policies are general andphilosophical, rather than detailed and operational guideline. Hopefully, thisinitial work can trigger future studies, which able to utilize this proposed modelsin a more fruitful and practice ways.] |
T42841-Ruli Tanio.pdf :: Unduh