[ABSTRAK
Perdagangan Internasional memegang peranan penting terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Presiden Republik Indonesia melalui program Nawa Cita memiliki proyeksi pertumbuhan ekspor yang signifikan selama periode 2015-2019. Salah satu faktor pendukung dari keberhasilan pencapaian target ekspor Indonesia adalah aspek logistik yang terjadi pada pasar perdagangan Internasional. Ekspektasi pertumbuhan ekspor Indonesia pada masa yang akan datang dirasakan cukup berat mengingat tren total ekspor Indonesia cenderung turun selama empat tahun terakhir ditambah performa indikator logistik Indonesia yang dirasakan belum maksimal. Mengingat terjadinya penurunan ekspor Indonesia selama beberapa tahun terakhir, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi ekspor di Indonesia serta pengaruh logistik terhadap ekspor dengan mempertimbangkan strategic improvement yang dapat dilakukan untuk mencapai target pertumbuhan ekspor. Penelitian dengan metode Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) mendapatkan hasil bahwa pada jangka pendek variabel investasi asing (FDI) dan variabel ekspor sendiri pada lag sebelumnya berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ekspor, sedangkan pada jangka panjang variabel investasi domestik (PMDN), logistik (PDBT), dan nilai tukar berpengaruh signifikan yang positif terhadap ekspor. Performa logistik harus ditingkatkan dalam upaya mencapai target pertumbuhan ekspor Indonesia pada periode 2015-2019.
ABSTRACT
International trade sector holds imperative role toward Economy of Indonesia. President of Republic of Indonesia through Nawa Cita agenda has significant export projection growth between periode of 2015-2019. One of key success factors to achieve such massive target is logistical aspect concurring within international trade circumstances. Future export?s expectation growth seems to be hard to be achieved in accordance with recent export performances which were slightly decreasing in previous years. This research is aimed to analyze certain factors which possibly affect the declining trend value of Indonesia?s export, also to scrutinizely analyze the impact of logistic toward export so that strategical improvement can be conducted in order to notch export?s target set in period of 2015-2019. This research used Vector Error Correction Model, with the result of several factors affecting export value of Indonesia. In the short term, Foreign Direct Investment and export itself in previous lag were giving impact significantly towards export value. Meanwhile in longer term, domestic investment, logistic, and exchange rate were significantly affecting export?s value positively. Logistic performances need to be enhanced in order to forge and notch the export value?s target within period of 2015-2019;International trade sector holds imperative role toward Economy of Indonesia. President of Republic of Indonesia through Nawa Cita agenda has significant export projection growth between periode of 2015-2019. One of key success factors to achieve such massive target is logistical aspect concurring within international trade circumstances. Future export?s expectation growth seems to be hard to be achieved in accordance with recent export performances which were slightly decreasing in previous years. This research is aimed to analyze certain factors which possibly affect the declining trend value of Indonesia?s export, also to scrutinizely analyze the impact of logistic toward export so that strategical improvement can be conducted in order to notch export?s target set in period of 2015-2019. This research used Vector Error Correction Model, with the result of several factors affecting export value of Indonesia. In the short term, Foreign Direct Investment and export itself in previous lag were giving impact significantly towards export value. Meanwhile in longer term, domestic investment, logistic, and exchange rate were significantly affecting export?s value positively. Logistic performances need to be enhanced in order to forge and notch the export value?s target within period of 2015-2019, International trade sector holds imperative role toward Economy of Indonesia. President of Republic of Indonesia through Nawa Cita agenda has significant export projection growth between periode of 2015-2019. One of key success factors to achieve such massive target is logistical aspect concurring within international trade circumstances. Future export’s expectation growth seems to be hard to be achieved in accordance with recent export performances which were slightly decreasing in previous years. This research is aimed to analyze certain factors which possibly affect the declining trend value of Indonesia’s export, also to scrutinizely analyze the impact of logistic toward export so that strategical improvement can be conducted in order to notch export’s target set in period of 2015-2019. This research used Vector Error Correction Model, with the result of several factors affecting export value of Indonesia. In the short term, Foreign Direct Investment and export itself in previous lag were giving impact significantly towards export value. Meanwhile in longer term, domestic investment, logistic, and exchange rate were significantly affecting export’s value positively. Logistic performances need to be enhanced in order to forge and notch the export value’s target within period of 2015-2019] |
T-Rafili Muhammad Hilman.pdf :: Unduh