[ABSTRAK
Kenaikan harga-harga properti hunian di Indonesia pada kurun waktu2010 ? 2012 telah menimbulkan kekhawatiran akan adanya bubble. Studi inibertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi potensi bubble di pasar properti hunian denganmenggunakan 5 (lima) indikator: perbandingan antara harga rumah aktual denganharga rumah berdasarkan predicted value-nya, perbandingan harga aktual denganharga fundamentalnya berdasarkan ekspektasi rasional, mengukur price to incomeratio dan price to rent ratio, menganalisis pertumbuhan kredit properti sertamelibatkan control chart.Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa properti jenis apartemen menunjukanadanya indikasi bubble, namun untuk tipe perumahan, walaupun mengalamikenaikan di tahun 2012, bukan merupakan indikasi bubble. Hal ini dibuktikan darihasil regresi yang dibuat menunjukan bahwa kenaikan harga rumah lebihdisebabkan oleh perubahan faktor fundamental seperti peningkatan pendapatanpenduduk, pertumbuhan populasi, tingkat inflasi yang stabil dan tingkatpengangguran yang cenderung turun, secara signifikan mempengaruhi kenaikanharga rumah.
ABSTRACT
The high increase of Indonesia?s property prices, particularly in theresidential sector, during 2010 ? 2012 has created a concern that it would lead to abubble. This study aims to investigate the potential housing bubble in Indonesiausing a combination of five (5) quantitative indicators, namely: a comparisonbetween actual and predicted housing value, a comparison between actual priceand fundamental price based on rational expectation, the price-to-income ratio andthe price-to-rent ratio, development of mortgage loans and control chart as astatistical tool to quantify housing / apartment bubbles.The results suggest that the apartment sector was on its way of formingbubble in 2012, whereas the landed-house sector showed no indications of animpending bubble. Furthermore, based on the regression analysis, the rise oflanded-house price was in line with fundamental factors such as increase inincome, population growth, inflation and lower unemployment rate, The high increase of Indonesia’s property prices, particularly in theresidential sector, during 2010 – 2012 has created a concern that it would lead to abubble. This study aims to investigate the potential housing bubble in Indonesiausing a combination of five (5) quantitative indicators, namely: a comparisonbetween actual and predicted housing value, a comparison between actual priceand fundamental price based on rational expectation, the price-to-income ratio andthe price-to-rent ratio, development of mortgage loans and control chart as astatistical tool to quantify housing / apartment bubbles.The results suggest that the apartment sector was on its way of formingbubble in 2012, whereas the landed-house sector showed no indications of animpending bubble. Furthermore, based on the regression analysis, the rise oflanded-house price was in line with fundamental factors such as increase inincome, population growth, inflation and lower unemployment rate] |
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