[Target swasembada jagung di tahun 2016 perlu untuk dikaji ulang ketercapaiannya, karena target tersebut diiringi dengan beberapa kebijakan lainnya, seperti : penahanan stok di pelabuhan, pencabutan lisensi impor jagung oleh swasta, pemusatan manajemen stok jagung kepada Bulog. Apabila kebijakan-kebijakan tersebut tetap diimplementasikan di tengah kondisi pasar domestik yang kekurangan suplai, maka target swasembada jagung tahun 2016 akan menjadi malapetaka bagi para produsen pakan ternak yang memerlukan suplai jagung secara teratur. Studi ini ditujukan untuk meramal pencapaian target swasembada jagung di tahun 2016 dengan cara meramal produksi dan konsumsi pada tahun 2016 menggunakan beberapa alternatif metode : OLS, ARIMA, Time Trend Variable dan Recursive Model. Hasilnya, Indonesia akan mencapai swasembada jagung pada tahun 2016 dengan surplus sebesar 189.918 ton jagung pipilan kering dengan kadar air 25%. Namun mengingat kebutuhan industri pakan yang merupakan jagung pipilan kering dengan kadar air 15%, maka volume produksi yang menyusut akan membuat perhitungan di tahun 2016 malah menjadi defisit sebesar 2,51 juta ton. Apabila Indonesia ingin menutup defisit tersebut, diperlukan lahan jagung sebesar 4,3 juta hektar atau produktifitas lahan sebesar 63 kuintal per hektar.
Corn self-sufficiency target in 2016 feasibility needs to be revisited because the program brings along several policies, such as : stock restricting at the ports, private’s import license abolishing and centering stock management to Bulog. Unless the domestic market being surplus, the policies implemented will cause a menace for livestock feed producers—for they need a regular corn supply. This study aims to forecast whether the target is going to be achieved by forecasting corn production and consumption in 2016 using several methods : OLS, ARIMA, Time Trend Variable and Recursive Model. The result shows that Indonesia is forecasted to achieve corn self-sufficiency by 2016; shown by a surplus of 189.918 tonne (with 25% moisture content). However, it is should be considered that feed-mill industry needs corn with 15% moisture content—and drying the corn shrinks its mass; leading to decrease of surplus and even change it into deficit of 2.51 million tonne. If Indonesia aims to self-suffice the deficit, then Indonesia needs 4.3 million hectares of corn land or land productivity of 6.3 tonne per hectare.;Corn self-sufficiency target in 2016 feasibility needs to be revisited because the program brings along several policies, such as : stock restricting at the ports, private’s import license abolishing and centering stock management to Bulog. Unless the domestic market being surplus, the policies implemented will cause a menace for livestock feed producers—for they need a regular corn supply. This study aims to forecast whether the target is going to be achieved by forecasting corn production and consumption in 2016 using several methods : OLS, ARIMA, Time Trend Variable and Recursive Model. The result shows that Indonesia is forecasted to achieve corn self-sufficiency by 2016; shown by a surplus of 189.918 tonne (with 25% moisture content). However, it is should be considered that feed-mill industry needs corn with 15% moisture content—and drying the corn shrinks its mass; leading to decrease of surplus and even change it into deficit of 2.51 million tonne. If Indonesia aims to self-suffice the deficit, then Indonesia needs 4.3 million hectares of corn land or land productivity of 6.3 tonne per hectare.;Corn self-sufficiency target in 2016 feasibility needs to be revisited because the program brings along several policies, such as : stock restricting at the ports, private’s import license abolishing and centering stock management to Bulog. Unless the domestic market being surplus, the policies implemented will cause a menace for livestock feed producers—for they need a regular corn supply. This study aims to forecast whether the target is going to be achieved by forecasting corn production and consumption in 2016 using several methods : OLS, ARIMA, Time Trend Variable and Recursive Model. The result shows that Indonesia is forecasted to achieve corn self-sufficiency by 2016; shown by a surplus of 189.918 tonne (with 25% moisture content). However, it is should be considered that feed-mill industry needs corn with 15% moisture content—and drying the corn shrinks its mass; leading to decrease of surplus and even change it into deficit of 2.51 million tonne. If Indonesia aims to self-suffice the deficit, then Indonesia needs 4.3 million hectares of corn land or land productivity of 6.3 tonne per hectare.;Corn self-sufficiency target in 2016 feasibility needs to be revisited because the program brings along several policies, such as : stock restricting at the ports, private’s import license abolishing and centering stock management to Bulog. Unless the domestic market being surplus, the policies implemented will cause a menace for livestock feed producers—for they need a regular corn supply. This study aims to forecast whether the target is going to be achieved by forecasting corn production and consumption in 2016 using several methods : OLS, ARIMA, Time Trend Variable and Recursive Model. The result shows that Indonesia is forecasted to achieve corn self-sufficiency by 2016; shown by a surplus of 189.918 tonne (with 25% moisture content). However, it is should be considered that feed-mill industry needs corn with 15% moisture content—and drying the corn shrinks its mass; leading to decrease of surplus and even change it into deficit of 2.51 million tonne. If Indonesia aims to self-suffice the deficit, then Indonesia needs 4.3 million hectares of corn land or land productivity of 6.3 tonne per hectare., Corn self-sufficiency target in 2016 feasibility needs to be revisited because the program brings along several policies, such as : stock restricting at the ports, private’s import license abolishing and centering stock management to Bulog. Unless the domestic market being surplus, the policies implemented will cause a menace for livestock feed producers—for they need a regular corn supply. This study aims to forecast whether the target is going to be achieved by forecasting corn production and consumption in 2016 using several methods : OLS, ARIMA, Time Trend Variable and Recursive Model. The result shows that Indonesia is forecasted to achieve corn self-sufficiency by 2016; shown by a surplus of 189.918 tonne (with 25% moisture content). However, it is should be considered that feed-mill industry needs corn with 15% moisture content—and drying the corn shrinks its mass; leading to decrease of surplus and even change it into deficit of 2.51 million tonne. If Indonesia aims to self-suffice the deficit, then Indonesia needs 4.3 million hectares of corn land or land productivity of 6.3 tonne per hectare.] |
S61693-Abigail.pdf :: Unduh