ABSTRAK Turbulensi ekonomi global atau krisis ekonomi global merupakan satumasalah besar dalam perekonomian yang saling terintegrasi, khususnyapada saat ini. Adanya turbulensi ekonomi global yang tercermin melaluiindeks volatilitas global sebagai early warning system terhadap krisisyangberhubungan langsung dengan cadangan devisa, mengingat fungsicadangan devisa itu sendiri sebagai bentuk recovery atau intervensi terhadapterjadinya turbulensi ekonomi global. Oleh karenanya perlu dilihatbagaimana hubungan turbulensi ekonomi global (yang tercermin melaluiindeks volatilitas global) terhadap tren cadangan devisa di negara emergingmarket, khususnya di enam negara (Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philipina,Thailand, dan Turki) sebagai negara subjek penelitian, dengan membagikeenam negara tersebut menjadi dua kelompok; Fragile Groups (Brazil,Indonesia, dan Turki) dan Robust Groups (Malaysia, Philipina, danThailand).Selain tren cadangan devisa, penelitian ini juga akan melihatperubahan realokasi asset keenam negara tersebut, yang disinyalir banyakpergeseran kearah asset yang dinilai lebih likuid dan konvertibel. Tujuanpenelitian ini adalah menganalisis pengaruh indeks volatilitas globalterhadap tren cadangan devisa di negara emerging market dan menganalisisperubahan realokasi asset cadangan devisa mereka.Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian kuantitatif dengan menggunakandata panel, data yang digunakan berupa time series (tahun 1990-2014) dancross section (enam negara kelompok emerging market countries). Jenisdata yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder yangdiperoleh dari International Monetary Fund(IMF), International FinancialStatistics (IFS), World Bank Indicators (WDI), World Integrated TradeSolution (WITS), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) dan WorldBank. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah metode analisis panel denganmetode FEM digunakan alat bantu softwareSTATA 12. ABSTRACT Global economic turbulence or the global economic crisis is a bigproblem in an integrated economy, particularly at this time. Their economicturbulence global (economic shock) which is currently reflected through theindex of global volatility (VIX) as an early warning system against theeconomic crisis directly related to the foreign exchange reserves, given thefunction of foreign exchange reserves itself as a form of recovery orintervention against the potential risks global. Therefore, need to be seenhow the relationship between index of global volatility (VIX) to the trend offoreign exchange reserves in emerging market countries, especially in sixcountries (Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, andTurkey) as a state research subject, by dividing the six countries into twogroups; Fragile Groups (Brazil, Indonesia, and Turkey) and Robust Groups(Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). In addition to the trend of foreignreserves, this study will also see changes in asset reallocation of the sixcountries, which allegedly many shifts towards assets considered moreliquid and convertible. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effectsof global volatility index against the trend of foreign exchange reserves inemerging market countries and analyze changes in asset reallocation of theirforeign reserves.This research is a quantitative research using panel data, the dataused in the form of time series (years 1990-2014) and cross section (the sixnationgroup of emerging market countries). The data used in this researchis secondary data obtained from the International Monetary Fund (IMF),International Financial Statistics (IFS), the World Bank Indicators (WDI),the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the World Bank. Theanalytical method used is the analysis method panel with FEM method usedSTATA 12 software tools. |