ABSTRAK
Latar belakang: Keputusan pasien untuk menjalani bedah pintas koroner dipengaruhi risiko mortalitas. Skor Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction ACEF merupakan prediktor mortalitas 30 hari pascabedah pintas koroner yang sederhana dan telah ditunjukkan memiliki performa yang setara dengan skor lain yang lebih kompleks. Tujuan: Menilai performa kalibrasi dan diskriminasi skor ACEF dalam memprediksi mortalitas 30 hari pascabedah pintas koroner di RSUPN Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo RSCM . Metode: Penelitian ini merupakan studi kohort retrospektif terhadap pasien penyakit jantung koroner dewasa yang menjalani bedah pintas koroner di unit Pelayanan Jantung Terpadu PJT RSCM tahun 2013 ndash; 2015. Usia, kreatinin, dan fraksi ejeksi dinilai sebelum pasien menjalani bedah. Pasien diikuti hingga 30 hari pascabedah untuk dilihat outcome-nya meninggal atau tidak . Performa kalibrasi skor ACEF dinilai dengan uji Hosmer-Lemeshow dan plot kalibrasi. Performa diskriminasi skor ACEF dinilai dengan area under the curve AUC . Hasil: Sebanyak 308 subjek diikutsertakan dalam analisis. Performa kalibrasi skor ACEF dengan uji Hosmer-Lemeshow menunjukkan p=0,991 dan plot kalibrasi menunjukkan koefisien korelasi r=0,95. Performa diskriminasi skor ACEF ditunjukkan dengan nilai AUC sebesar 0,728 IK95 0,644; 0,811 . Simpulan: Skor ACEF memiliki performa kalibrasi dan diskriminasi yang baik dalam memprediksi mortalitas 30 hari pascabedah pintas koroner di RSCM.
ABSTRACT
Background The preference of patients to undergo coronary artery bypass grafting CABG surgery is influenced by the risk of mortality. Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction ACEF score is a simple predictor of 30 day mortality following CABG surgery and had been shown to be equivalent to more complex models. Aim To assess calibration and discrimination performance of ACEF score in predicting 30 day mortality following CABG surgery in Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study of adult coronary artery disease patients undergoing CABG surgery in Integrated Cardiovascular Center, Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital between 2013 ndash 2015. Age, creatinine, and ejection fraction value were obtained before surgery. The subjects were followed up for up to 30 days postoperatively to assess the outcome dead or alive . Calibration performance were assessed by Hosmer Lemeshow test and calibration plot. Discrimination performance were assessed by the area under the curve AUC . Results A total of 308 subjects were included in analysis. Hosmer Lemeshow test of ACEF score showed p 0.991 and calibration plot showed r 0.95. Discrimination of ACEF score was shown by the AUC value of 0.728 95 CI 0.644 0.811 . Conclusion ACEF score have a good calibration and discrimination performance in predicting 30 day mortality following CABG surgery in Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital. |
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