Analisis determinan capital outflow Indonesia periode 1991:Q1-2011:Q4 pendekatan model revolving door = Analysis of Indonesian capital outflow determinants during / Andry Prima Sembiring
Sembiring, Andry Prima;
Solikin M. Juhro, supervisor; Telisa Aulia Falianty, examiner; Maria Goreti Arie Damayanti, examiner
([Publisher not identified]
, 2013)
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ABSTRAK Penelitian ini mengkaji keberadaan hubungan dua arah antara alirankapital keluar (capital outflow) dan tingkat hutang luar negeri (external debt netflow) dengan mengambil subyek penelitian perekonomian Indonesia dalam 20tahun terakhir. Pendekatan yang digunakan adalah dengan model Revolving Doorsecara simultan guna mengobservasi interaksi kedua variabel diatas. Didalampenelitian juga turut dianalisa peranan faktor kondusivitas ekonomi, yang diproksimelalui variable indeks manufaktur dan suku bunga differensial, serta peran faktorrisiko, yang diproksi melalui indeks volatilitas global VIX dan variable risikopolitik domestik ICRG.Hasil regresi 3SLS dan VEC secara signifikan menunjukkan adanya efekrevolving door di Indonesia dalam 3 tipe. Untuk setiap USD 1 peningkatan hutangluar negeri akan menyebabkan USD 1.05 capital outflow dan sebaliknya setiapUSD 1 capital outflow akan meningkatkan hutang luar negeri sebesar USD 0.64.Peningkatan indeks debt insolvency 1 bulan akan meningkatkan capital outflowsebesar USD 53 juta per kuartal. Sedangkan peningkatan kondusivitas ekonomi,yaitu suku bunga differensial dan pertumbuhan sektor manufaktur bersama-samadapat meredam USD 117 juta capital outflow per kuartal. Kedua faktor risiko jugatampak berkontribusi terhadap peningkatan capital outflow dan peningkatanhutang luar negeri walaupun tidak secara signifikan. Disini terlihat pentingnyabauran kebijakan pemerintah untuk menjaga kondisi hutang luar negeri yang sehatdan menciptakan kondusivitas ekonomi yang stabil guna menekan capital outflow. ABSTRACT This study analyze contemporaneous bi-directional causality betweencapital outflow and external debt net flow in the Indonesian economy during thelast 20 years. Revolving door analysis was deployed to observe the simultaneousinteraction between the above mentioned variable. We also incorporatedeconomic conductiveness factors, such as manufacturing sector index anddifferential interest rate, and also, risk factors, such as financial volatility indexVIX and domestic political risk ICRG, into the equations.3SLS and VEC result have clearly showed 3 types of revolving door flowsforming within Indonesian economy. The results indicates that for every USD 1increase of external debt will cause USD 1.05 increase of capital outflow and forevery USD 1 increase of capital outflow will cause USD 0.64 increase of externaldebt. Further, a 1-month increase in debt insolvency index will result in USD 53million capital to run out of the country quarterly. In the other hand, differentialinterest rates and manufacturing sector growth will cummulatively dampen USD117 million capital outflow quarterly. Both risk factors affects capital outflow andexternal debt although not significantly. These findings have shown theimportance of government policies mix to maintain a healthy level of externaldebt and also to promote a stable economic condition to prevent capital outflow. |
 T46632-Andry Prima Sembiring.pdf :: Unduh
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| No. Panggil : | T46632 |
| Entri utama-Nama orang : | |
| Entri tambahan-Nama orang : | |
| Entri tambahan-Nama badan : | |
| Subjek : | |
| Penerbitan : | [Place of publication not identified]: [Publisher not identified], 2013 |
| Program Studi : |
| Bahasa : | ind |
| Sumber Pengatalogan : | LibUI ind rda |
| Tipe Konten : | text |
| Tipe Media : | unmediated ; computer |
| Tipe Carrier : | volume ; online resource |
| Deskripsi Fisik : | xiv, 104 pages : illustration ; 28 cm + appendix |
| Naskah Ringkas : | |
| Lembaga Pemilik : | Universitas Indonesia |
| Lokasi : | Perpustakaan UI, Lantai 3 |
| No. Panggil | No. Barkod | Ketersediaan |
|---|---|---|
| T46632 | 15-18-186467593 | TERSEDIA |
| Ulasan: |
| Tidak ada ulasan pada koleksi ini: 20450789 |
