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Climate changes and global warming had a great impacts on rainfall patterns. The rainfall patternschanges can influence on rainfed land cropping system. In relation to that fact, study on change of rainfall patternand it?s impacts on rainfed land cropping system had been carried out at the West Java. The study based onrainfall and crop production data that was analyzsed by Adaptive Neuro-Fazzy Inference System. The resultsshowed that the pattern of rainfall at West Java region in the last 30 years has changed and tend to decline. Longrainy season becomes shorter and extreme rainfall (droughts or floods) has increase. Long rainy season changedfrom 6-7 months to 4-6 months and led to a shorter period of growing season. Early planting changed and backabout 1-2 dasarian of early planting is usually done in 14th dasarian. In the area of West Java, production of riceand corn trend to increase while soybean production tends to decline. Model production of food crops which wereanalyzed by ANFIS very accurate and can be used for projecting the production of rice, corn, and soybeans.Perubahan iklim dan pemanasan global sangat mempengaruhi perubahan pola curah hujan. Perubahan polacurah hujan tersebut berdampak pada sistem pertanian tanaman pangan lahan tadah hujan. Sehubungan dengan halitu telah dilakukan penelitian mengenai perubahan pola curah hujan dan dampaknya terhadap sistem pertaniantanaman pangan lahan tadah hujan di Jawa Barat. Penelitian menggunakan data curah hujan dan produksi tanamanpangan yang dianalisis menggunakan model Adaptive Neuro-Fazzy Inference System. Hasil penelitianmenunjukan bahwa pola curah hujan di wilayah Jawa Barat pada 30 tahun terakhir mengalami perubahan dancenderung menurun. Lama musim hujan menjadi lebih pendek dan curah hujan ekstrim (kekeringan atau banjir)semakin meningkat. Lama musim hujan berubah dari 6-7 bulan menjadi 4-6 bulan dan menyebabkan periodemasa tanam lebih pendek. Awal tanam mengalami perubahan dan mundur sekitar 1-2 dasarian dari awal tanamsebelumnya yang biasa dilakukan pada dasarian ke 14. Di wilayah Jawa Barat, produksi tanaman padi dan jagungcenderung meningkat sedangkan produksi tanaman kedelai cenderung menurun. Model produksi tanaman panganhasil analisis ANFIS sangat akurat dan dapat dipergunakan untuk memproyeksikan produksi padi, jagung, dankedelai. |
