Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat dampak pengenaan tarif bea keluar biji kakao Indonesia terhadap ekspor produk kakao olahan dari Indonesia dan Malaysia di jangka panjang. Variabel penelitian yang digunakan adalah volume ekspor produk kakao olahan di Indonesia dan Malaysia, harga biji kakao Indonesia, harga biji kakao internasional, harga rata-rata ekspor kakao olahan di 5 negara kompetitor Indonesia dan Malaysia, volume impor kakao olahan di dunia dan dummy penerapan tarif bea keluar biji kakao Indonesia. Untuk menjawab tujuan penelitian maka digunakan metode Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) dan menggunakan bound testing cointegration untuk melihat hubungan kointegrasi dari variabel-variabel yang diteliti. Hasil analisis data menunjukkan bahwa pengenaan tarif bea keluar biji kakao di Indonesia berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap meningkatnya volume ekspor kakao olahan Indonesia di jangka panjang. Sedangkan bagi Malaysia, pengenaan tarif bea keluar biji kakao di Indonesia, berpengaruh tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap menurunnya volume ekspor kakao olahan Malaysia di jangka panjang.
The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of Indonesian cocoa beans export tax policy on Indonesia and Malaysia processed cocoa exports in the long term. The research variables are export volume of processed cocoa products in Indonesia and Malaysia, Indonesia price of cocoa beans, world price of cocoa beans, average price of exports of processed cocoa in 5 Indonesia and Malaysia competitor countries, import volume of cocoa in the world and the dummy tariff Export duty of Indonesian cocoa beans. To answer the research objectives method is used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL To answer the research objective, we use Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and using bound testing cointegration for testing the cointegration relationship between the research variables. The results show that in the long run, that the imposition of tariff on cocoa beans in Indonesia has a significant effect on the increase of export volume of Indonesia processed cocoa but for Malaysia, the imposition of tariffs out of cocoa beans in Indonesia, no significant effect on the declining vol of Malaysias exports of processed cocoa. |
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