Tujuan inti dari penelitian ini adalah melakukan assessmen terhadaphubungan antara perilaku “siklikalitas fiskal” dengan “volatilitas output”. Fokusstudi pada evaluasi efektivitas kebijakan fiskal dalam menstabilkan fluktuasi siklusbisnis, dan menganalisis dampaknya pada output agregat dan kesempatan kerja.Fluktuasi siklus bisnis diidentifikasi melalui perilaku volatilitas output, yang diukurdari rasio celah output terhadap output potensial, sementara perilaku siklikalitaskebijakan fiskal diukur dari rasio keseimbangan primer terhadap output potensial.Sementara itu, efektivitas fungsi stabilisasi kebijakan fiskal dalam memperkecilvolatilitas output diukur dari rasio keseimbangan primer siklikal dan rasiokeseimbangan primer yang disesuaikan secara siklis terhadap output potensialberkenaan dengan celah output.Studi ini menyimpulkan lima temuan pokok sebagai berikut. Pertama,kebijakan fiskal di Indonesia selama periode penelitian (1980:1 – 2010:4) lebihbersifat kontra siklis (countercyclical) dalam merespon siklus bisnis. Kedua,kebijakan stabilisator fiskal otomatis cukup efektif dalam menstabilkan fluktuasisiklus bisnis. Ketiga, langkah-langkah kebijakan fiskal diskresioner cukup efektifdalam mengurangi volatilitas output, sehingga menyimpulkan, kebijakan fiskalcukup efektif dalam menstabilkan fluktuasi siklus bisnis di Indonesia.Keempat,guncangan ekspansi fiskal melalui pemotongan pajak memberikan dampak yanglebih besar pada permintaan agregat, output agregat, dan kesempatan kerja,ketimbang ekspansi fiskal melalui belanja konsumsi pemerintah ataupun melaluibelanja investasi pemerintah. Kelima, guncangan ekspansi fiskal melaluipeningkatan belanja konsumsi pemerintah memberikan dampak yang lebih besarpada permintaan agregat, output agregat dan kesempatan kerja dibandingkandengan ekspansi fiskal melalui belanja investasi pemerintah
The main objective of this research is to conduct an assessment of therelationship between the behavior of “fiscal cyclicality” and “output volatility”. Thefocus of the study is to evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in stabilizingbusiness cycle fluctuations and to analyze the impact on aggregate output andemployment. Business cycle fluctuations are identified through the behavior ofoutput volatility, as measured by the ratio of the output gap to output potential,while the behavior of the cyclicality of fiscal policy is measured by the ratio of theprimary balance to potential output. Meanwhile, the effectiveness of thestabilization function of fiscal policy in reducing output volatility is measured bythe cyclical primary balance ratio and the cyclically adjusted primary balance ratioto output potential with respect to the output gap.This study draws five main conclusions, as follows: First, fiscal policy inIndonesia during the research period (1980:1 – 2010:4) is more countercyclical innature in responding to the business cycle. Second, the automatic fiscal policystabilizers are sufficiently effective in stabilizing business cycle fluctuations.Third, discretionary fiscal policy actions are sufficiently effective in reducingoutput volatility, so that it can be concluded that fiscal policy is quite effective instabilizing business cycle fluctuations in Indonesia. Fourth, a fiscal expansionshock via cuts in taxation produces a larger impact on aggregate demand, aggregateoutput and employment opportunities rather than fiscal expansion via governmentconsumption expenditure or through government investment expenditure. Fifth, afiscal expansion shock through increased government consumption expenditureprovides a larger impact on aggregate demand, aggregate output and employmentcompared with fiscal expansion via government investment expenditure. |
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