Penelitian ini membahas pengaruh konsumsi alkohol dan pengangguran terhadap kriminalitas pada 34 provinsi untuk periode 2018 – 2020 di Indonesia melalui metode data panel. Penelitian ini mengestimasi model tipe kriminalitas yang diduga dipengaruhi oleh konsumsi alkohol, yaitu kejahatan terhadap nyawa, fisik, kesusilaan, hak milik menggunakan kekerasan dan narkotika. Metode analisis dalam penelitian ini menggunakan metode fixed-effect, random-effect, dan pooled least square. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga membahas hubungan agama terhadap konsumsi alkohol secara terpisah. Hasil estimasi penelitian ini menunjukkan konsumsi alkohol memilki pengaruh positif terhadap kejahatan terhadap nyawa. Kemudian, pengangguran memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap kriminalitas secara keseluruhan, kejahatan terhadap kesusilaan, dan kejahatan terhadap hak milik menggunakan kekerasan. Hal tersebut diduga adanya peningkatan efek keamanan di Indonesia. Selain itu, ketimpangan melalui indeks Gini memiliki pengaruh positif paling kuat terhadap kriminalitas, khususnya kejahatan terhadap nyawa. Persentase penduduk miskin memiliki pengaruh positif terhadap total kriminalitas dan kejahatan terhadap hak milik menggunakan kekerasan, sedangkan memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap kejahatan terhadap nyawa dan kejahatan terhadap narkotika. Proporsi populasi laki-laki memiliki pengaruh positif terhadap kriminalitas secara keseluruhan dan kejahatan terhadap narkotika. Tingkat pendidikan memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap total kriminalitas dan kejahatan terhadap fisik, namun memiliki pengaruh positif terhadap kejahatan terhadap kesusilaan, kejahatan terhadap hak milik menggunakan kekerasan, dan kejahatan terhadap narkotika. Kelompok usia 15 – 29 tahun memiliki pengaruh positif terhadap kejahatan terhadap hak milik menggunakan kekerasan, sedangkan memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap kejahatan terhadap nyawa dan kejahatan terhadap kesusilaan. Penduduk non-muslim memiliki pengaruh positif terhadap kriminalitas secara keseluruhan. Kemudian, proxy penegakan hukum melalui indeks pemberdayaan gender memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap seluruh tipe kriminalitas, kecuali kejahatan terhadap kesusilaan. Secara terpisah, persentase penduduk beragama Islam memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap konsumsi alkohol.
This study discusses the effect of alcohol consumption and unemployment on crime in 34 provinces for the period 2018 – 2020 in Indonesia and employs the panel data method. This study breaks down crimes by types, namely crimes against life, physical, decency, property rights using violence and narcotics. The method in this study uses the fixed-effect method. The break-downs are assumed caused by alcohol consumption. In addition to the alcohol consumption – unemployment and crime nexus, this study also briefly discusses the relationship between religion and alcohol consumption separately. First, the estimation results of this study indicate that alcohol consumption has a positive effect on crimes against life. Unemployment has a negative effect on overall crime, crimes against decency, and crimes against property rights using violence. It’s assumed that this phenomenon caused by an increase of safety effect in Indonesia. In addition, the Gini index has the strongest positive influence on crime, especially crimes against life. The percentage of poor people has a positive influence on total crime and crimes against property rights using violence, while the percentage of poor people has negative effect on crime against life and crime against drugs. The proportion of male population has a positive influence on overall crime and crime against drugs. Education level has a negative effect on overall crime and physical crimes, but has a positive influence on crime against decency, crimes against property rights using violence, and crimes against drugs. The age group of 15 – 29 years has a positive influence on crimes against property rights using violence, while the negative influence on crimes against life and crimes against decency. The non-Muslim population has a positive influence on overall crime. Then, law enforcement proxies through the gender empowerment index have a negative effect on types of crime, except crimes against decency. Lastly, from the separate estimation of religion and alcohol consumption nexus, the percentage of the Muslim population has a negative influence on alcohol consumption. |
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