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This study is an attempt to elucidate the patterns and trends of migration and urbanization in Indonesia, with specific reference to the last 50 years. Emphasis will be on the use of measures commonly used in demographic analyses in so far as they are relevant to understanding internal migration in Indonesia. In analyses of fertility and mortality useful measures for demographic analyses have been developed. The extensive use of life tables in studies of mortality estimating procedures in fertility studies indicate that demographic techniques can contribute in overcoming the problem of limited data, so that in the absence of good vital statistics a satisfactory estimate of demographic parameters can be made. The development of model life tables in the last two decades by the Princeton group and the United Nations was a breakthrough in overcoming problems caused by poor population data in many developing countries. This is particularly true for the purpose of estimating mortality and making population projections for a country. The wide use of these life tables, even with all their limitations, turn out to be very useful in elucidating the current? situation as a basis for future projection and important policy guidance. While the most sophisticated techniques in demography have been productively applied in analyze of fertility and mortality (Cho et al 1980), little has been done in the area of migration and urbanization analysis in Indonesia. Some scholars in analyzing migration based on the 1971 Census used limited measures of migration in Indonesia, both provincial and regional migration (Speare, 1975, Sundrum, 1976 and Hugo, 1975 and 1980): An analysis of a similar kind was made by McNicoll using limited data from the 1961 Census and the multiple rounds of the Socio Economic Surveys (Susenas) conducted by the Central Bureau of Statistics beginning in the early 1960s. In the area of urbanization, even fewer studies have utilized the available techniques in demography, probably with the exception of Hugo {1981). The analysis of migration in this study is based on theories and techniques of demography in order to provide a conceptual framework for understanding the phenomena and from there derive some policy implications and policy recommendations relevant for development. A population redistribution policy according to Pryor (1979) is expressed as follows : "The population redistribution policy of a nation can be viewed as reflecting the changing character and regional horizontal distribution of modernization and development, and the qualitative (vertical) aspects of the institutional and socio cultural milieu". Pryor further? elaborated that direct policies are deliberately created, have explicit intentions, are specific in some detail, are usually linked to both goals and projects, and their relevance and outcomes will be monitored and evaluated. Indirect policies are consequential and subsidiary to other goals, are implicit and non-purposive. It is part of the aim of this study to provide recommendations for a population redistribution policy. The study of migration can take different forms. It can be approached from an economic, demographic, sociological, geographic or other points of view. It can be approached from any combination of disciplines, in other words from an interdisciplinary perspective. The first systematic study of migration was one conducted by Ravenstein (1885, 1889). His paper presented in March 1885 be-fore the Royal Statistical Society in England and later published in the "Journal of Royal Statistical Society" in 1885, was called the "Laws of Migration". The paper based on the analysis of the 1881 British Census was criticized for not being empirically testable? |
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