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"ABSTRAKTesis ini membahas harga keekonomian gas di sektor Hulu dengan menganalisa harga keekonomian pengembangan lapangan atau Plant of Development-POD, Biaya Operasional, Abandonment Site Restoration beserta seluruh komponen keekonomian lainya seperti Asumsi harga, IRR, NPV, Tax, Perjanjian Jual Beli Gas serta komponen harga pada rantai nilai Industri Gas bumi dari hulu ke hilir dengan mempertimbangkan biaya-biaya yang dibutuhkan diantaranya biaya transmisi dan distribusi, pengalokasian gas, strategi dan kebijakan penetapan harga, skema penjualan serta type kontrak yang digunakan. Analisa ekonomi dilakukan dengan menghitung Net Back Value (NBV) serta Simulasi Monte Carlo untuk menggambarkan perubahan variable yang tidak pasti untuk mendapatkan sensitivitas dalam analisa ekonomi. Pada akhir penelitian ini diharapkan dapat diketahui seberapa besar harga keekonomian gas bumi di sektor hulu untuk alokasi kebutuhan gas domestic.

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ABSTRACTThis Thesis discusses the economic price of gas in Indonesia by analyzing the economic price of field development and gas industry value chain from upstream to downstream taking into account the costs required by the producer gas (upstream costs), the cost of transmission and distribution, gas allocation, strategy and pricing policies, sales scheme and type of contract used. Economic analysis is done by calculating the Net Back Value (NBV) as well as Monte Carlo simulations to describe the uncertain variables change to get the sensitivity of the economic analysis. At the end of this study are expected to know how big the economic price of natural gas in the upstream sector for allocation of domestic gas demand, as a case study in this research will also be analyzed Gas Sale Contract in Upstream Oil Company which will be evaluated against the results of the analysis of economic gas prices in Indonesia based on the simulation results of the value chain"

"Permasalahan industri gas domestik di Indonesia saat ini adalah ketidakpastian alokasi pasokan gas domestik, minimnya infrastruktur, serta permasalahan harga jual gas. Untuk meningkatkan alokasi gas industri, harga gas domestik seharusnya dinaikkan, sehingga disparitasnya tidak terlalu jauh dengan harga gas ekspor. Di sisi lain, adanya monopoli akses transportasi jalur pengangkutan gas di Indonesia menyebabkan industri harus membayar harga gas lebih mahal dari yang sewajarnya. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan simulasi untuk mendapatkan harga gas yang layak dalam rangka membantu Pemerintah dalam menetapkan harga gas agar tidak selalu terpaku pada harga gas yang ditetapkan oleh pedagang gas (trader) dan pengangkut gas (transporter). Metode yang digunakan dalam penentuan harga gas ini adalah metode Netback Value (NBV). Pengolahan data dalam penelitian ini menggunakan analisis ketidakpastian untuk mendapatkan validasi ketidakpastian dengan simulasi Monte Carlo menggunakan piranti lunak Crystal Ball. Berdasarkan penelitian, didapatkan rasio pembiayaan antara sektor hulu dan hilir untuk harga jual gas rekalkulasi dengan kondisi ideal (biaya transmisi jalur pipa Pertagas serta prediksi biaya distribusi didasarkan informasi laporan tahunan PGN) sebesar lebih dari satu atau mendekati satu. Hal ini masih wajar mengingat sektor hulu memiliki nilai investasi lebih tinggi untuk melakukan aktivitas ekplorasi dan produksi, dibandingkan dengan sektor hilir. Sementara itu, jika dibandingkan dengan harga jual gas bumi PGN baik untuk sektor listrik dan sektor industri non pupuk, terdapat perbedaan yang sangat signifikan sehingga menyebabkan rasio pembiayaan sektor hulu dan hilir tidak realistis.

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Domestic gas industry?s problems in Indonesia are uncertain allocation for domestic gas supply, lack of infrastructure, and also gas price issue. To improve the gas allocation for domestic industrial sector, domestic gas prices should be raised, so that the disparity between domestic gas price and export gas price is not too far away. On the other hand, the existence of monopoly of gas trader and transporter in Indonesia caused the industry has to pay the price of gas more expensive than normal. In this study conducted a simulation to get decent gas prices in order to give recommendation to the Government in determining the price of gas that does not always get hung up on the price of gas that is determined by gas traders and transporters. The method used in determining the gas price is the Netback Value method (NBV). The data in this study is processed using uncertainty analysis to with Monte Carlo simulation using Crystal Ball software. Based on the study, the cost ratio between the upstream and downstream sectors for gas price recalculation with ideal conditions (using Pertagas pipeline transmission costs and distribution cost based on annual report of PGN) is more than one or close to one. It is still reasonable considering the upstream sector has a higher investment value for exploration and production activities than the downstream sector. Meanwhile, when compared with the gas price from PGN, there are very significant differences that cause the cost ratio of the upstream and downstream sector is not realistic."

"[ABSTRAKKajian dilakukan dengan menganalisis seluruh komponen biaya yang mempengaruhiketetapan harga CNG, dengan simulasi Monte Carlo dengan bantuan perangkat lunakCrystal Ball yang mengacu pada kebijakan pemerintah berupa Peraturan MenteriESDM Nomor 19 Tahun 2010 yang telah menetapkan formula harga jual bahan bakargas untuk transportasi dengan mempertimbangkan harga di titik penyerahan (hulu),toll fee, investasi SPBG, biaya pengoperasian dan pemeliharaan SPBG, margin danpajak. Pada Kajian ini mengupas toll fee dengan memilih supply chain yang dianggaptepat untuk wilayah Jawa Bagian Barat. Hasil Kajian Harga CNG untuk RegionalJawa Bagian Barat, dimana simulasi dilakukan di wilayah DKI Jakarta didapatkanbahwa Keputusan Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Nomor: 2932K/12/MEM/2010: ?Harga Jual Bahan Bakar Gas yang digunakan untuk Transportasidi Wilayah Jakarta termasuk Bogor, Bekasi, Depok dan Tangerang adalah Rp3.100,00 (tiga ribu seratus rupiah) untuk tiap 1 (satu) Liter Setara Premium (LSP)termasuk pajak-pajak.? merupakan harga kompetitif yang dapat dilaksanakan untukwilayah Jawa bagian Barat. Dilihat dari hasil rekalkulasi yaitu harga CNG padatapping point Bitung sebesar $. 0.223 atau Rp. 2819,82 dan harga aggregasi sebesarRp. 2737,58 dengan harga riil berada pada rentang harga Rp.1857,43 hingga Rp.3890,32 (berdasarkan Indeks Harga Konsumen April 2015) dan pada wilayah tapingpoin Nagrak sebesar $. 0.209 atau Rp. 2631,02 dan harga aggregasi sebesar Rp.2795,51 dengan harga riil berada pada rentang harga Rp.2227,59 hingga Rp. 4533.44.

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ABSTRACTThe study was conducted by analyzing all the components that affect the cost of provision of CNG price, with a Monte Carlo simulation with the help of Crystal Ball software which refers to government policies such as the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 19 of 2010, which has set the pricing formula of gas fuel for transportation by considering the price at the point of delivery (upstream), toll fee, SPBGs investment, operating and maintenance costs SPBGs, margins and taxes. On This study peeling toll fee by choosing supply chain that is considered appropriate for the region Western of Java. Study results CNG price to Regional Java, where the simulation is done in Jakarta found that the Decree of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 2932 K / 12 / MEM / 2010: "Selling Price Gas Fuel used for transportation in Jakarta area including Bogor, Bekasi, Depok and Tangerang is $ 3100.00 (three thousand one hundred dollars) for every 1 (one) liter Premium Equivalent (LSP), including taxes. "a competitive price that can be implemented for the region western of Java. Judging from the results of recalculation is the price of CNG at the tapping point Bitung of $. 0.223 or Rp. 2819.82 and aggregation price of Rp. 2737.58 with the real price is in the range of price Rp.1857, 43 up to Rp. 3890.32 (based on the Consumer Price Index April 2015) and in the region of Nagrak tapping points. $.0.209 or Rp. 2631.02 and aggregation price of Rp. 2795.51 with the real price is in the range of price Rp.2227,59 up to Rp.4533.44.;The study was conducted by analyzing all the components that affect the cost of provision of CNG price, with a Monte Carlo simulation with the help of Crystal Ball software which refers to government policies such as the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 19 of 2010, which has set the pricing formula of gas fuel for transportation by considering the price at the point of delivery (upstream), toll fee, SPBGs investment, operating and maintenance costs SPBGs, margins and taxes. On This study peeling toll fee by choosing supply chain that is considered appropriate for the region Western of Java. Study results CNG price to Regional Java, where the simulation is done in Jakarta found that the Decree of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 2932 K / 12 / MEM / 2010: "Selling Price Gas Fuel used for transportation in Jakarta area including Bogor, Bekasi, Depok and Tangerang is $ 3100.00 (three thousand one hundred dollars) for every 1 (one) liter Premium Equivalent (LSP), including taxes. "a competitive price that can be implemented for the region western of Java. Judging from the results of recalculation is the price of CNG at the tapping point Bitung of $. 0.223 or Rp. 2819.82 and aggregation price of Rp. 2737.58 with the real price is in the range of price Rp.1857, 43 up to Rp. 3890.32 (based on the Consumer Price Index April 2015) and in the region of Nagrak tapping points. $.0.209 or Rp. 2631.02 and aggregation price of Rp. 2795.51 with the real price is in the range of price Rp.2227,59 up to Rp.4533.44.;The study was conducted by analyzing all the components that affect the cost of provision of CNG price, with a Monte Carlo simulation with the help of Crystal Ball software which refers to government policies such as the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 19 of 2010, which has set the pricing formula of gas fuel for transportation by considering the price at the point of delivery (upstream), toll fee, SPBGs investment, operating and maintenance costs SPBGs, margins and taxes. On This study peeling toll fee by choosing supply chain that is considered appropriate for the region Western of Java. Study results CNG price to Regional Java, where the simulation is done in Jakarta found that the Decree of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 2932 K / 12 / MEM / 2010: "Selling Price Gas Fuel used for transportation in Jakarta area including Bogor, Bekasi, Depok and Tangerang is $ 3100.00 (three thousand one hundred dollars) for every 1 (one) liter Premium Equivalent (LSP), including taxes. "a competitive price that can be implemented for the region western of Java. Judging from the results of recalculation is the price of CNG at the tapping point Bitung of $. 0.223 or Rp. 2819.82 and aggregation price of Rp. 2737.58 with the real price is in the range of price Rp.1857, 43 up to Rp. 3890.32 (based on the Consumer Price Index April 2015) and in the region of Nagrak tapping points. $.0.209 or Rp. 2631.02 and aggregation price of Rp. 2795.51 with the real price is in the range of price Rp.2227,59 up to Rp.4533.44., The study was conducted by analyzing all the components that affect the cost of provision of CNG price, with a Monte Carlo simulation with the help of Crystal Ball software which refers to government policies such as the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 19 of 2010, which has set the pricing formula of gas fuel for transportation by considering the price at the point of delivery (upstream), toll fee, SPBGs investment, operating and maintenance costs SPBGs, margins and taxes. On This study peeling toll fee by choosing supply chain that is considered appropriate for the region Western of Java. Study results CNG price to Regional Java, where the simulation is done in Jakarta found that the Decree of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 2932 K / 12 / MEM / 2010: "Selling Price Gas Fuel used for transportation in Jakarta area including Bogor, Bekasi, Depok and Tangerang is $ 3100.00 (three thousand one hundred dollars) for every 1 (one) liter Premium Equivalent (LSP), including taxes. "a competitive price that can be implemented for the region western of Java. Judging from the results of recalculation is the price of CNG at the tapping point Bitung of $. 0.223 or Rp. 2819.82 and aggregation price of Rp. 2737.58 with the real price is in the range of price Rp.1857, 43 up to Rp. 3890.32 (based on the Consumer Price Index April 2015) and in the region of Nagrak tapping points. $.0.209 or Rp. 2631.02 and aggregation price of Rp. 2795.51 with the real price is in the range of price Rp.2227,59 up to Rp.4533.44.]"

"Gas bumi diletakkan sebagai salah satu pilar industrialisasi nasional. Industri petrokimia terutama industri pupuk di Indonesia saat ini mengalami kendala dalam pemenuhan bahan baku utama yaitu gas bumi. Hal ini terjadi karena kurang minatnya produsen gas untuk menjual gasnya ke Industri pupuk yang dikarenakan harga jualnya yang lebih rendah dibandingkan dijual untuk kebutuhan listrik dan industri lainnya. Harga jual yang rendah tentu membuat keuntungan yang didapat produsen gas menjadi sedikit. Untuk itu diperlukan penelitian untuk menentukan seberapa besar keuntungan atau netback value yang didapat produsen gas dan pemerintah sehingga pemerintah dapat menetukan harga jual yang lebih bersaing serta pemerintah dapat menentukan besran subsidi yang akan diberikan kepada industri pupuk dengan tepat. Penelitian ini dimulai dengan pencarian data harga gas di sektor hilir berdasarkan kontrak yang sudah ada, kemudian mencari biaya-biaya dari sektor hilir ke sektor hulu yang meliputi biaya distribusi dan pengolahan gas. Pengolahan data dalam penelitian ini menggunakan analisis ketidakpastian untuk mendapatkan validasi ketidakpastian skema industri gas bumi dengan simulasi Monte Carlo menggunakan piranti lunak Crystal Ball. Pada akhir penelitian ini diharapkan dapat diketahui seberapa besar netback value gas bumi untuk kebutuhan domestik secara fundamental, serta dapat menjadi bahan evaluasi terhadap harga gas bumi di sektor hulu.

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Natural gas is placed as one of the pillars of national industrialization. Petrochemical industry especially fertilizer industry in Indonesia is currently experiencing difficulties in fulfilling the main raw materials, natural gas. This happens because of lack of interest in the gas producer to sell its gas to the fertilizer industry due to a lower selling price than the sale of electricity and other industrial needs. Lower selling price certainly makes the benefits being a little for gas producers. It is required a study to determine how much profit or netback value obtained gas producers and the government so that the government can determine the selling price is more competitive and can determine government subsidies will be given to the proper fertilizer industry.

The study begins with a search gas price data in the downstream sector based on an existing contract, then looks for the costs of the downstream to the upstream sector covering the cost of distribution and gas processing. Processing the data in this study uses uncertainty analysis to obtain the uncertainty schema validation natural gas industry with Monte Carlo simulation using Crystal Ball software. At the end of this study are expected to know how much the netback value of natural gas for domestic needs is and may be material to the evaluation of natural gas prices in the upstream sector."

"Peramalan permintaan material MRO pada industri migas sangat diperlukan untuk menunjang kegiatan pemeliharaan, perbaikan, dan operasi dalam kegiatan produksi. Maka dari itu diperlukan metode peramalan yang tepat untuk dapat mengendalikan persediaan material MRO. Dalam penelitian ini menggunakan salah satu metode machine learning yaitu Artificial Neural Network yang akan dibandingkan dengan beberapa metode tradisional.Metode peramalan yang menghasilkan nilai peramalan terbaik berupa nilai MSE terendah akan digunakan untuk memperoleh parameter pengendalian persediaan material berupa jumlah ROQ, safety stock, ROP, dan total biaya persediaan. Hasil yang menggunakan model continuous review system ini diharapkan dapat menurunkan total biaya persediaan.Adapun hasil pengendalian persediaan material tersebut akan dilakukan simulasi Monte Carlo untuk melihat range terhadap parameter pengendalian persediaan untuk mendapatkan proyeksi keadaan yang akan terjadi dikemudian hari. Selain itu dengan simulasi ini akan melihat pengaruh perubahan variabel uncertain terhadap perubahan total biaya persediaan.

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The forecast of MRO material in oil and gas industry is needed to support maintenance, repair, and operation activities in production. Thus, an appropriate forecasting method is needed to control the inventory of MRO material. This paper uses one of the methods of machine learning, which is Artificial Neural Network. This method will be compared with some traditional methods.

Forecasting method which gives out the best forecast error in a form of the lowest MSE which will be used to get a material inventory control parameter. The material inventory control parameter are ROQ, safety stock, ROP, and total cost of inventory. These result which used continuous review system model are hoped to reduce inventory total cost.

The result of those material inventory control will be done using Monte Carlo simulation to see the range toward inventory control parameter in order to get the projection of future situation. Furthermore, this simulation will also see the influence of the changing uncertain variable towards the change of inventory total cost."

"ABSTRAKHarga gas bumi domestik merupakan salah satu masalah utama dalam percepatan pemanfaatan gas bumi untuk keperluan domestik, guna mengurangi beban subsidi negara atas pemanfaatan bahan bakar minyak yang harganya terus melambung tinggi. Harga gas bumi domestik telah ditetapkan oleh pemerintah berdasarkan keekonomian biaya pengembangan lapangan gas, dalam hal ini ada komponen biaya hulu dan ada komponen biaya hilir. Komponen biaya hulu dalam pengembangan lapangan gas meliputi sunk cost, drilling cost, production facility cost, opex, abex, dan margin KKKS. Komponen ini dibagi dengan total cadangannya untuk mendapatkan biaya per unit energi (US$/MMbtu). Sedangkan komponen biaya hilir meliputi biaya pipa transmisi (tol fee), biaya pipa distribusi, dan margin harga hilir (margin transporter dan margin trader). Perangkat lunak dalam simulasi monte carlo ini menggunkan crystall ball, yang digunakan untuk memperoleh model distribusi dan nilai rata-rata dari setiap komponen biaya di hulu dan di hilir. Berdasarkan nilai rata-rata tiap komponen biaya tersebut akan didapatkan harga gas domestik sesuai dengan formula harga gas yang diskenariokan. Skenario dalam penelitian ini meliputi skenario harga gas dimana PLN membeli langsung dari KKKS, skenario harga gas dimana PLN membeli dari trader gas, dan skenario harga gas dimana PLN membeli gas LNG dari FSRU Nusantara Regas. Hasil dari penelitian ini berupa harga gas domestik untuk masing-masing skenario harga gas.

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ABSTRACTThe domestic gas prices is one of the main problems in accelerating the utilization of natural gas for domestic needs, in order to reduce the subsidy burden of the state in using of fuel oil that the prices raise continuously. The domestic gas prices have been set by the government based on the economic cost of development gas field, in this case there is cost component in the upstream and downstream. The cost component in the upstream for development gas field include sunk costs, drilling costs, production facility cost, opex, abex, and KKKS margin. This components are divided by the total reserves to get costs of per unit energy (US$/MMbtu). While the cost components in the downstream include the cost of transmission pipeline (tol fee), the cost of distribution pipeline, and downstream price margin (transporter margins and trader margins). The Monte Carlo simulations in this study use the crystall ball as software, which is used to obtain the distribution model and the average value of each cost component in the upstream and downstream. Based on average value of each cost component will be obtained the domestic gas price refers to the gas price formula scripted. The scenario in this study consist of gas price scenario in which PLN buys direct from PSC, gas price scenario in which PLN buys from traders gas, and gas price scenario in which PLN buys gas from the LNG FSRU Nusantara Regas. The results on this study is the domestic gas price for every gas price scenario."

"Infrastruktur gas bumi merupakan salah satu masalah utama dalam percepatan pemanfaatan gas bumi untuk keperluan domestik, pemanfaatan gas bumi sebagai sumber energi akan mampu mengurangi beban subsidi negara dalam pemakaian bahan bakar minyak (BBM) yang harganya terus melambung tinggi, dimana sebagian BBM masih tergantung dari import. Kurang berkembangnya infrastruktur gas bumi, mengakibatkan gas bumi cenderung di eksport daripada dimanfaatkan untuk kepentingan domestik. Sedangkan kecenderungan demand gas bumi domestik semakin meningkat, yang berakibat harga gas bumi cenderung semakin naik, dan banyak badan usaha (trader) berperilaku monopolistik. Untuk itu perlu penataan kebijakan yang merangsang pada percepatan pembangunan infrastruktur, dimana investor mendapatkan insentive dan kepastian berinvestasi. Dalam hasil penelitian ini diharapkan akan mendapatkan suatu skema harga yang wajar bagi pelaku usaha hilir migas namun akomodatif untuk end user. Analisa ekonomi dilakukan dengan menghitung seluruh komponen biaya di sektor hilir, dengan simulasi Monte Carlo dengan bantuan piranti lunak Crystal Ball.

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Natural gas infrastructure is one of the main problems in accelerating the utilization of natural gas for domestic purposes, the use of natural gas as an energy source will be able to reduce the subsidy burden of the state in the use of fuel oil (BBM) whose price continues to soar, where most of the fuel is still dependent on imported. Less development of natural gas infrastructure, resulting in the export of natural gas tends to be used rather than domestic interests, while the tendency of the domestic gas demand is increasing. As a result, the price of natural gas tends to rise, and many business entities (traders) behave monopolistically. For that we need policies that stimulate the arrangement of the acceleration of infrastructure development, where investors get incentives and certainty to invest. In the results of this study are expected to get a fair price scheme for downstream businesses accommodating to the end user. Economic analysis carried out by calculating the cost of all components in the downstream sector. Crystal Ball software is used to Monte Carlo simulation."

"ABSTRAKUntuk memenuhi kebutuhan energi seiring dengan menurunnya produksi minyak, pemanfaatan gas menjadi solusi untuk dapat memenuhi kebutuhan energi. Produksi gas Indonesia pada tahun 2015 adalah 8,102 MMSCFD berdasarkan data dari SKK Migas.Saat ini pemerintah sedang menggalakkan pembangunan jaringan gas kota di Indonesia, salah satunya di Kecamatan Muara Satu Kota Lhokseumawe. Salah satu perusahaan pemerintah berencana akan membangun 89.383 sambungan rumah tangga sampai tahun 2017 di seluruh Indonesia.Mengingat akan ada banyak proyek jaringan gas kota, penting bagi kita menganalisis risiko yang mungkin terjadi selama konstruksi maupun selama operasi dari jaringan gas tersebut. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan identifikasi risiko, kemudian mengelompokkan risiko tersebut sesuai kategorinya, kemudian dilakukan analisis kualitatif dan analisis kuantitatif dengan simulasi Monte Carlo, lalu hasilnya dievaluasi. Dengan menghitung risiko secara keseluruhan, risiko proyek jaringan gas di Kota Lhokseumawe ini tergolong rendah dengan nilai risk 3,72.Hasil penelitian ini adalah berupa strategi untuk menurunkan risiko-risiko dan kerugian yang mungkin timbul. Dengan adanya strategi penanganan terhadap risiko-risiko yang mungkin timbul, kerugian biaya dapat diturunkan menjadi 10% atau sekitar 4,5 milyar rupiah.

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ABSTRACTTo fulfill energy demand because of decreasing oil production, converting oil to gas is a good choice. Based on data from SKK Migas in 2015, Indonesia produced 8.102 MMSCFD gas.Nowdays, Indonesia?s government encourages gas pipeline project for citygas in several cities in Indonesia. One of company owned by government plans to build 89.383 connection until 2017 in Indonesia.In the future, there are many citygas projects in Indonesia, risk analysis during construction and operation of pipeline project will be an important thing. This research included risk indentification, grouping the risk into their categories, then we analyze the risk both qualitative and quantitative using Monte Carlo simulation. The summary of all risk calculation shows that this project has low risk with value 3.72.The results of this research are strategies to reduce and manage the risks during pipeline construction and operation of citygas project. By applying the strategies, risks can be reduced from 29% to 10%. It is equivalent with 4,5 billion rupiahs."

"Kelebihan produksi gas bumi dari lapangan-lapangan gas di Kalimantan Timur disebabkan oleh alokasi contracted demand yang sebelumnya untuk ekspor telah berakhir. Kontradiktif dengan hal itu pemenuhan kebutuhan akan gas bumi nasional masih mengalami kekurangan (defisit). Hal ini disebabkan oleh infrastruktur transportasi gas bumi di Indonesia yang belum memadai dan kurang menariknya harga jual gas bumi domestik jika dibandingkan harga jual gas bumi untuk ekspor.Salah satu pemasok gas bumi di daerah Kalimantan Timur berasal dari tipe cadangan gas stranded. Produksi Lapangan X yang menjadi obyek dalam penulisan ini merupakan bagian dalam pemasok gas bumi untuk daerah Kalimantan Timur yang berasal dari jenis cadangan gas stranded. Dalam mengembangkan lapangannya, kontraktor memiliki kendala dalam mencapai parameter keekonomian yang ditentukan. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) lebih besar dari Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR) sebesar 20% dan Bagian Pemerintah (Government Take) sebesar 30% digunakan sebagai ukuran (yardsticks) minimum ambang ekonomi dalam pengembangan Lapangan X.Analisis keekonomian Lapangan X dilakukan dalam rangka mempertahankan tingkat indikator keekonomian yang harus dicapai. Harga Gas (Gas Price), Biaya Operasi (Operating Cost) dan bagian antara pemerintah dengan kontraktor (Sharing Split) merupakan variabel PSC yang dianalisis untuk mendapatkan harga jual gas bumi yang memberikan pencapaian terhadap parameter keekonomian Lapangan X. Hasil dari analisis uji variabel PSC mendapatkan metode Uji Model Harga Gas Bumi dengan menggunakan model formula yang dilakukan eskalasi setiap tahunnya dan uji model Sharing Split sebagai metode terbaik yang dapat dipilih untuk pencapaian IRR masingmasing sebesar 20,6% dan 20,8% serta Government Take (GT) sebesar 37,4% dan 32,2%.Harga jual gas bumi yang dapat memberikan pencapaian ukuran (yardsticks) minimum keekonomian Lapangan X sebesar US$ 5,32-6,74/ MMBTU diberlakukan sebelum adanya perubahan titik serah terima gas bumi dan US$ 5,36-6,79/ MMBTU setelah adanya perubahan titik serah terima gas bumi. Jika dibandingkan dengan harga yang berlaku di pasaran (market), maka harga tersebut dapat digunakan sebagai harga jual gas bumi yang kompetitif untuk industri Pupuk.

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Over production of natural gas from gas fields in East Kalimantan is caused by the termination in allocation of previous contracted demand for exports. Contradictory to that, the needs of natural gas is still lacking (deficit). This is due to inadequacy of natural gas transportation infrastructure and less interesting selling price of domestic natural gas than the selling price of natural gas for export.

One of the supply of natural gas in the East Kalimantan region is derived from the type of stranded gas reserves. Production of Field X which become object in this paper is a one of the suppliers of natural gas to East Kalimantan region derived from the type of stranded gas reserves. In developing their field, the contractor has a constraint in achieving the economic parameters defined. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) greater than the Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR) by 20% and Government share (Government Take) by 30% is used as a measure (yardsticks) of minimum economic threshold in development of Field X.

Economic analysis of Field X conducted in order to maintain the level of the economic indicators to be achieved. Gas prices, Operating Costs and part of the government and the contractor (Sharing Split) is a PSC variable analyzed to obtain the sale price of natural gas that yields to the economic parameters of Field X. The results of PSC variable test analysis showed the method of Model Price Gas Test done using a model formula which escalates each year and Sharing Split Test Model as the best methods that can be selected for achieving 20.6% and 20.8% of IRR and 37.4% and 32.2 % of Government Take respectively.

The selling price of natural gas that can give attainment of Field X's economical minimum yardsticks is US $ 5.32 to 6.74/ MMBTU applied before the delivery point changes and about US $ 5.36 to 6.79/ MMBTU after changes in the delivery point of natural gas. When compared with the prevailing price in the market then this price can be used as the selling price of natural gas is competitive for fertilizer industry."

"Natural gas industries in indonesia is a good industries to be invested. It is due to Indonesia hasmany natural gas resources, the raising of BBM subsidies, and good promising market. From marketanalysis, the capacity for this industry is about l53,257.238 MMSCF/year, and this industry will beoperated for about 19 years. This plant will be built in Kecamatan Batui, Kabupaten Banggai, CentralSulawesi. The natural gas will be processed in two main process which are sweetening process andfraksionasi process. The operation mode of this plant is using continuous mode. Good processperformance of this plant is shown by energy efficiency of 82.61% (sweetening process) and 98.57%(Faltsionasi process). Economic analysis calculated that the total investment to build this plant is aboutUSS l60 million with manufacturing cost of USS 57. 7 million. NPV for this project calculated at USS 94million, 25% JRR, with payback periods in 6 years. The most sensitive for this project is productioncapacity , which is no less than 76,l36.884 MMSCF/year or 49. 68% from basic production capacity ofthis plant. Risk analysis of this plant using Monte Carlo 's method considering that the value of IRR ismore than the disconto level (11%), it can be summarized that the certainly of feasibility level of thisplant for city gas distribution using pipeline method is 82.l5%, whilst using CNG is 79. 78%. Based oneconomic analysis mentioned above, this plant is considered being feasible for a commercialcommencement."