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"Sejak pemerintah memberlakukan kebijakan subsidi tetap untuk bahan bakar minyak (BBM) jenis solar, harga eceran solar bergerak secara cepat dan fluktuatif. Peraturan Presiden No.191 tahun 2014 tentang Penyediaan, Pendistribusian dan Harga Jual Eceran BBM telah memberi kewenangan kepada Menteri ESDM untuk menetapkan harga dasar dan harga jual eceran BBM, sehingga hampir sebulan sekali terjadi perubahan harga eceran solar. Tujuan tesis ini adalah untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan subsidi tetap harga BBM jenis solar terhadap perubahan harga sembako di Indonesia, dan menganalisis terjadinya transmisi harga antara harga solar dan harga sembako. Berdasarkan pengujian dengan pendekatan teori Asymmetric Vertical Price Transmission dan model Error Correction (ECM), didapatkan bahwa hubungan antara harga solar dan harga sembako bersifat tidak simetris, yaitu ketika harga solar naik, maka harga telur, beras dan daging ayam naik, namun ketika harga solar turun, harga telur, beras dan daging ayam tidak ikut turun. Harga telur, beras dan daging ayam terkoreksi kembali kepada keseimbangan jangka panjangnya dalam jangka waktu 2 sampai 4 bulan. Sedangkan untuk komoditi jenis gula, susu, minyak goreng dan daging sapi, pergerakan harga keempat komoditi tersebut tidak memiliki hubungan kointegrasi dengan harga solar. Faktor yang menyebabkan transmisi harga tidak simetris ini adalah kekakuan harga jasa transportasi dan perilaku spekulan yang memiliki market power dalam struktur pasar oligopoli, baik dalam rantai supply telur, beras dan daging ayam, dimana pedagang besar memiliki bargaining yang kuat dalam penentuan harga.

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Ever since the government formally issued fixed subsidy policy for diesel fuel, the price of diesel fuel has been very dynamic and volatile. Presidential Decree No.191/2014 has given authority to the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources for setting a basic price and selling price of diesel fuel. By the policy, the retail price of diesel fuel changes every month.

The purposes of this study are (1) to analyze the impact of fixed subsidy policy for diesel fuel on basic commodities price in Indonesia, and (2) to analyze price transmission between diesel fuel price and basic commodities price.

By using theory of asymmetric vertical price transmission and Error Correction Model (ECM), it can be shown that relations between diesel fuel price and basic commodities price is asymmetrical. It means when diesel fuel price increased, the price of eggs, rice and chicken meat increased accordingly, however, when diesel fuel price decreased, the price of egg, rice and chicken meat did not decrease. The price of egg, rice and chicken meat will be corrected to its long-term equilibrium with the diesel price for 2 to 4 months. Meanwhile, the price of other basic commodities such as sugar, milk, cooking oil and beef have not cointegrated with the diesel fuel price.

The asymmetric price transmission between diesel price and some of basic commodities is caused by price rigidity of transportation, and behavior of speculators which have market power in an oligopoly market structure in the supply chain of eggs, rice and chicken meat. In this case, big traders have a strong bargaining power for pricing."

"ABSTRAKPemerintah membuat kebijakan penurunan subsidi BBM karena subsidi BBM telah menjadi beban berat bagi APBN, dinilai tidak tepat sasaran, dan merusak lingkungan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan penurunan subsidi BBM dengan pemberian kompensasi berupa cash transfer dan non-cash transfer terhadap perekonomian, distribusi pendapatan rumah tangga, dan tingkat emisi CO2. Penelitian ini menggunakan SNSE Indonesia tahun 2008 sebagai alat analisisnya. Hasil simulasi penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan penurunan subsidi BBM dengan kompensasi berupa pemberian cash transfer berdampak lebih baik terhadap perbaikan tingkat ketimpangan distribusi pendapatan rumah tangga Indonesia dibanding dengan kompensasi non-cash transfer. Sedangkan hasil simulasi kebijakan penurunan subsidi BBM dengan kompensasi non-cash transfer menunjukkan bahwa kompensasi yang dialokasikan pada sektor yang terkait langsung dengan produk BBM bersubsidi (sektor angkutan darat) berdampak lebih baik dibanding pengalokasian pada sektor yang tidak terkait langsung dengan produk BBM bersubsidi (sektor konstruksi), baik dalam nilai perubahan PDB, total pendapatan rumah tangga, maupun perbaikan ketimpangan distribusi pendapatan rumah tangga. Namun alokasi kompensasi pada sektor angkutan darat berdampak pada peningkatan jumlah emisi CO2. Sementara itu, jika dilakukan kebijakan penurunan subsidi BBM satu jenis tertentu dengan tetap memberikan subsidi untuk dua jenis BBM lainnya, maka penurunan subsidi BBM jenis solar dinilai lebih efektif untuk menurunkan tingkat emisi CO2 dan menurunkan angka ketimpangan distribusi pendapatan.

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ABSTRACT

Fuel subsidides create a heavy burden for state budget, not effective as poor social protection and creating environmental problem. Fuel subsidies which are not well targeted tend to widen income distribution gap. This study aims to analyze the impact of fuel subsidies removal and cash transfer policies to Indonesian economy, household income distribution, and the level of CO2 emission. This study using Social Accounting Matrix Indonesia for the year of 2008 as a tool of analysis. As the results, fuel subsidy removal decreases income distribution inequality and GDP. Overall, fuel subsidy removal decreases CO2 emission, except for fuel compensation allocated in land transportation which increases the CO2 emission. This study also found that cash transfer as compensation gives better effect to the household income distribution compared with non-cash transfer compensation. Another finding was that subsidy removal with sector targeted policy gives better impact for the sector which had direct relation to the fuel subsidy sector than the sector indirect related. This study also identifies that the impact of the certain types of fuel subsidy removal differ each other. The subsidy removal for diesel affects on decreases of income distribution inequality and CO2 emission better than gasoline and kerosene subsidy removal."

"Penelitian ini mencoba untuk melihat dampak harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM) terhadap biaya transportasi di desa-desa di wilayah kepulauan kecil dan wilayah terluar dengan mengambil kasus kebijakan BBM satu harga periode tahun 2017-2019. Kebijakan ini memiliki tujuan untuk memberikan harga jual yang sama terhadap premium dan solar di seluruh Indonesia sehingga masyarakat tidak terbebani dengan biaya transportasi. Menggunakan pendekatan difference-in-differences (DID), penelitian ini menganalisis dampak penerapan kebijakan BBM satu harga terhadap biaya transportasi di 170 desa. Biaya transportasi digambarkan dengan biaya transportasi per kilometer menuju pusat pemerintahan. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan BBM Satu Harga dapat menurunkan biaya transportasi secara signifikan di wilayah terluar, namun belum dapat menurunkan biaya transportasi di wilayah kepulauan kecil. Setelah kebijakan BBM satu harga, biaya transportasi dari kantor kepala desa/kelurahan menuju ke kantor camat di desa dengan SPBU BBM satu harga di wilayah terluar secara signifikan lebih rendah sebesar Rp10.140 per kilometer jika dibandingkan dengan desa tanpa SPBU BBM satu harga, sementara di wilayah kepulauan kecil tidak secara signifikan lebih rendah sebesar Rp11.980 per kilometer. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan berbasis harga dapat menurunkan biaya transportasi di wilayah terluar, namun perlu mempertimbangkan kondisi geografis wilayah dalam penentuan lokasi penyalur BBM Satu Harga.

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This study tries to see the impact of fuel oil (BBM) prices on transportation costs in villages in small islands and outermost regions by taking the case of the one price fuel policy for the 2017-2019 period. This policy aims to provide the same selling price for premium and diesel throughout Indonesia so that people are not burdened with transportation costs. Using the difference-in-differences (DID) approach, this study analyzes the impact of one price fuel policy implementation on transportation costs in 170 villages. Transportation costs are described by transportation costs per kilometer to the center of government. The results show that the one price fuel policy can significantly reduce transportation costs in the outermost regions, but has not been able to reduce transportation costs in small island regions. After the one price fuel policy, the transportation cost from the village head's office to the sub-district head's office in villages with one price fuel gas stations in the outer regions is significantly lower at IDR 10,140 per kilometer compared to villages without one price fuel gas stations, while in the small islands it is not significantly lower at IDR 11,980 per kilometer. The results of this study indicate that price-based policies can reduce transportation costs in the outermost regions, but it is necessary to consider the geographical conditions of the region in determining the location of one price fuel distributors."

"Persoalan inefisiensi membuat kebijakan subsidi BBM kurang diminati oleh banyak negara dalam beberapa dekade terakhir. Meskipun demikian, penghapusan subsidi ini dapat berdampak negatif bagi perekonomian, khususnya terkait kemiskinan, apabila tidak diiringi dengan program kompensasi yang tepat. Artikel ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis program apakah yang paling tepat untuk diterapkan di Indonesia sebagai kompensasi penghapusan subsidi BBM. Program yang dibahas dalam artikel ini meliputi bantuan tunai, subsidi pangan, program pendidikan dan kesehatan, dan pembangunan infrastruktur. Dengan mempertimbangkan jangka waktu program, akurasi sasaran, dan isu kebebasan memilih, dapat disimpulkan bahwa tidak ada satu program yang unggul di ketiga aspek tersebut. Oleh karena itu, keputusan untuk memilih program mana yang akan diterapkan tergantung dari tujuan utama yang ingin dicapai oleh pemerintah. Tujuan jangka pendek dapat diwujudkan melalui bantuan tunai dan subsidi pangan sedangkan pembangunan sumber daya manusia dan infrastruktur dapat mewujudkan penghapusan kemiskinan secara lebih berkesinambungan.

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Inefficiency has led to fuel subsidies being a much less favourable policy for many countries dealing with oil price hikes over the last few decades. Nevertheless, removing fuel subsidies can have detrimental effects on the economy, particularly related to poverty issue, if there is no appropriate compensation program implemented. This study aims to assess what the most suitable compensation would be in the case of fuel subsidies being phased out in Indonesia. Four different programs considered in this study are a cash transfer, a food subsidy, an education and healthcare program, and investment in infrastructure. Evaluating these programs in terms of time frame, targeting recipients, and freedom of choice, it is found that there is no single program superior in all aspects. The decision on which program should be chosen by the government then depends on its main objective. While an immediate and short-run effect can be achieved by providing cash or inkind transfers to the poor, human capital accumulation and improvement in physical infrastructure offer a long-run and more sustainable effect on poverty alleviation."

"Dengan semakin menipisnya cadangan minyak di Indonesia, sedangkan permintaan energi terus mengalami peningkatan, sehingga diperlukan sumber energi alternatif yang dapat mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap minyak bumi. Sumber Daya Gas Bumi di Indonesia saat ini sangat besar, namun pemanfaatannya belum optimal untuk kebutuhan domestik. Pemerintah telah melaksanakan program Diversifikasi BBM ke BBG, namun belum berjalan efektif. Penelitian ini memproyeksi penyediaan dan permintaan gas bumi hingga tahun 2050, sehingga dapat dipetakan produksi dan konsumsi setiap wilayah dengan adanya substitusi BBG terhadap BBM. Permodelan penyediaan dan permintaan gas bumi menggunakan pendekatan sistem dinamik.

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With the depletion of oil reserves in Indonesia, while the demand for energy continues to increase, so we need an alternative energy source that can reduce dependence on petroleum. Gas Resources in Indonesia is very large, but not yet optimal utilization for domestic needs. The Government has been implementing fuel gas diversification program, but has not been effective. This research project the supply of and demand for natural gas by 2050, so it can be mapped production and consumption of each region with the substitution of fuel gas instead of fuel oil. Modeling the supply and demand for natural gas using a dynamic systems approach."

"ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis interaksi dinamis antara subsidi BBM, tingkat suku Bunga, dan Pertumbuhan PDB terhadap ruang fiskal di Indonesia selama penerapan kebijakan pengurangan subsidi BBM. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan data runtut waktu triwulanan dengan periode 2010:01-2017:04 dan teknik analisis metode time series vector error correction model VECM . Hasil Penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat interaksi dinamis antara subsidi BBM, tingkat suku bunga, pertumbuhan PDB terhadap ruang fiskal berdasarkan hasil hasil Kausalitas granger dan hasil estimasi VECM yang telah dilakukan. Hasil kausalitas granger yang menyatakan bahwa terdapat hubungan satu arah antara subsidi BBM dengan ruang fiskal yang mengindikasikan bahwa subsidi BBM dapat mempengaruhi ruang fiskal secara langsung. Sedangkan Perrtumbuhan PDB dan tingkat suku bunga tidak mempunyai hubungan kausalitas terhadap ruang fiskal, namun hasil tersebut sedikit berbeda dengan hasil estimasi VECM. Hasil estimasi VECM memperlihatkan bahwa berdasarkan data historis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini, akan terjadi penurunan ruang fiskal setelah tiga bulan pemerintah meningkatkan subsidi BBM dan akan terjadi penurunan ruang fiskal setelah tiga bulan setelah pertumbuhan PDB. Kata Kunci : Ruang Fiskal, Subsidi BBM, Tingkat Suku Bunga, Pertumbuhan PDB, Rasio Pajak, Harga Minyak Mentah, Kausalitas Granger, VECM.Klasifikasi JEL : E62, H23, H53.

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ABSTRACT This study aims to analyze the dynamic interaction between fuel subsidy, interest rate, and GDP growth on fiscal space in Indonesia during the implementation of fuel subsidy reduction policy. This research was conducted using quarterly queuing data with period 2010 01 2017 04 and time series vector error correction model VECM technique. The results showed that there was a dynamic interaction between fuel subsidy, interest rate, GDP growth on fiscal space based on the results of Granger causality and VECM estimation results that have been done. The result of Granger Causality which states that there is a one way relationship between fuel subsidy and fiscal space indicating that fuel subsidy can affect fiscal space directly. While GDP growth and interest rates do not have a causal relationship to the fiscal space, the results are slightly different from the VECM estimates. VECM estimates show that based on historical data used in this study, there will be a decrease in fiscal space after three months of government increases fuel subsidies and there will be a decrease in fiscal space after three months after GDP growth. Keywords Fiscal Space, Fuel Subsidies, Interest Rate, GDP Growth, Tax Ratio, Crude Oil Price, Indonesia, Granger Causality, VECM.JEL Classification E62, H23, H53"

"Tahun 2007 pemerintah Indonesia melaksanakan program konversi minyak tanah menjadi LPG dengan meluncurkan LPG 3 Kg untuk rumah tangga tidak mampu dan usaha mikro. Pada pelaksanaannya, kemungkinan rumah tangga nonsasaran juga menggunakan LPG subsidi. Untuk menghindari penggunaan LPG subsidi oleh rumah tangga nonsasaran yang berimplikasi terhadap beban fiskal pemerintah, perlu pemahaman tentang perilaku rumah tangga dalam memilih LPG nonsubsidi. Pendapatan rumah tangga, harga dan ketersediaan bahan bakar menentukan pilihan jenis bahan bakar memasak rumah tangga. Namun, belum melihat hubungan tersebut dalam pemilihan antara LPG subsidi dan nonsubsidi sebagai bakar bakar memasak rumah tangga. Dengan menggunakan data Susenas Maret 2018 dan Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (KESDM) yang berjumlah 194.062 rumah tangga Indonesia, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui bagaimana hubungan pendapatan, Harga Eceran Tertinggi (HET) LPG subsidi dan kuota LPG subsidi sebagai representasi ketersediaan bahan bakar terhadap pilihan penggunaan LPG nonsubsidi di rumah tangga Indonesia tahun 2018. Menggunakan model estimasi Multinomial Logit, studi ini menemukan bahwa kenaikan pendapatan, kenaikan HET LPG subsidi, dan pengurangan kuota LPG subsidi berkorelasi dengan peningkatan peluang pemilihan LPG nonsubsidi sebagai bahan bakar memasak rumah tangga Indonesia tahun 2018. Selain itu, penelitian juga menemukan bahwa mayoritas pengguna LPG susbidi adalah rumah tangga nonmiskin.

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In 2007, the Indonesia government launched a 3 kg LPG cylinder for poor households and micro-enterprises to reduce fuels subsidies burden. In implementation, the subsidized LPG may also used by non-target households which implicated to the goverment fiscal burden. In order to avoid this, its necessary to understand households behavior on non-subsidized LPG choices. Household income, fuel price and availability determine the choice of household cooking fuel types. However, existing studies have not seen the relationship between subsidized and non-subsidized LPG as household cooking fuel. Using March 2018 National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) and the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (KESDM) information, this study examine the relationship between income, highest subsidized LPG retail price (HRP) and subsidized LPG quota as a representative of fuel availability in Indonesian households with subsidized and non-subsidized LPG choices as cooking fuel in 2018. Multinomial Logit model estimation result found that an increase in income, an increase in subsidized LPG HRP and a decrease in subsidized LPG quotas are correlated with an increase in chances of choosing non-subsidized LPG as Indonesian cooking fuel in 2018. Furthermore, this study revealed that the largest subsidized LPG users are non-poor households."

"[ABSTRAKFenomena yang dihadapi masyarakat Indonesia pada akhir tahun 2014adalah kenaikan harga bahan bakar minyak jenis Premium akibat pemotongansubsidi.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meneliti adanya pengaruh tingkat hargaPremium terhadap perilaku berpindah merek dari produk subsidi ke produk Nonsubsidi.Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian deskriptif dengan menggunakan 142responden yang merupakan konsumen bahan bakar minyak jenis Premium dalamkurun waktu tiga bulan terakhir dari pengambilan data.Instrumen penelitian inimenggunakan kuesioner.Metode pengolahan data menggunakan analisisdiskriminan dengan menggunakan SPSS 20.0.Hasil penelitian menunjukanterdapat pengaruh tingkat harga bahan bakar minyak jenisPremium terhadapperilaku berpindah merek konsumen Premium.Penelitian ini juga mengungkapkanpengaruh etnosentrisme terhadap keputusan berpindah ke Pertamax atau pindahke Non-Pertamina.Hasil penelitian menyarankan kepada Pertamina untuksenantiasa mengevaluasi kebijakan harga bahan bakar minyak jenis Premium danmemberikan pendekatan pesan yang berbeda bagi konsumen dengan tingkatkecenderungan etnosentrisme yang berbeda;

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ABSTRACTDuring the end of 2014, Indonesian consumer is facing an increase in thesubsidized fuel ("Premium") price due to the government policy to cut fuelsubsidy. This research will focus on the effect of subsidized fuel price leveltowards the respondent's switching behaviour to non-subsidized fuel ("Pertamax"or "Non-Pertamina").This research is a descriptive research with 142respondentwhom has been using "Premium" fuel in the last three months (february-may).The instrument used is a questionnaire and the data is analyzed usingdiscriminant analysis in SPSS 20.0. Result shows that there is an effect ofsubsidized fuel pricelevel and ethnocentrism toward consumer's switchingbehaviour and decision. This findings suggest that Pertamina should evaluate the"Premium"'s pricepolicy and to give a different approach in messaging theconsumer based on their ethnocentricism tendency.;During the end of 2014, Indonesian consumer is facing an increase in thesubsidized fuel ("Premium") price due to the government policy to cut fuelsubsidy. This research will focus on the effect of subsidized fuel price leveltowards the respondent's switching behaviour to non-subsidized fuel ("Pertamax"or "Non-Pertamina").This research is a descriptive research with 142respondentwhom has been using "Premium" fuel in the last three months (february-may).The instrument used is a questionnaire and the data is analyzed usingdiscriminant analysis in SPSS 20.0. Result shows that there is an effect ofsubsidized fuel pricelevel and ethnocentrism toward consumer's switchingbehaviour and decision. This findings suggest that Pertamina should evaluate the"Premium"'s pricepolicy and to give a different approach in messaging theconsumer based on their ethnocentricism tendency.;During the end of 2014, Indonesian consumer is facing an increase in thesubsidized fuel ("Premium") price due to the government policy to cut fuelsubsidy. This research will focus on the effect of subsidized fuel price leveltowards the respondent's switching behaviour to non-subsidized fuel ("Pertamax"or "Non-Pertamina").This research is a descriptive research with 142respondentwhom has been using "Premium" fuel in the last three months (february-may).The instrument used is a questionnaire and the data is analyzed usingdiscriminant analysis in SPSS 20.0. Result shows that there is an effect ofsubsidized fuel pricelevel and ethnocentrism toward consumer's switchingbehaviour and decision. This findings suggest that Pertamina should evaluate the"Premium"'s pricepolicy and to give a different approach in messaging theconsumer based on their ethnocentricism tendency.;During the end of 2014, Indonesian consumer is facing an increase in thesubsidized fuel ("Premium") price due to the government policy to cut fuelsubsidy. This research will focus on the effect of subsidized fuel price leveltowards the respondent's switching behaviour to non-subsidized fuel ("Pertamax"or "Non-Pertamina").This research is a descriptive research with 142respondentwhom has been using "Premium" fuel in the last three months (february-may).The instrument used is a questionnaire and the data is analyzed usingdiscriminant analysis in SPSS 20.0. Result shows that there is an effect ofsubsidized fuel pricelevel and ethnocentrism toward consumer's switchingbehaviour and decision. This findings suggest that Pertamina should evaluate the"Premium"'s pricepolicy and to give a different approach in messaging theconsumer based on their ethnocentricism tendency., During the end of 2014, Indonesian consumer is facing an increase in thesubsidized fuel ("Premium") price due to the government policy to cut fuelsubsidy. This research will focus on the effect of subsidized fuel price leveltowards the respondent's switching behaviour to non-subsidized fuel ("Pertamax"or "Non-Pertamina").This research is a descriptive research with 142respondentwhom has been using "Premium" fuel in the last three months (february-may).The instrument used is a questionnaire and the data is analyzed usingdiscriminant analysis in SPSS 20.0. Result shows that there is an effect ofsubsidized fuel pricelevel and ethnocentrism toward consumer's switchingbehaviour and decision. This findings suggest that Pertamina should evaluate the"Premium"'s pricepolicy and to give a different approach in messaging theconsumer based on their ethnocentricism tendency.]"

"ABSTRAKPeningkatan kebutuhan domestik, peningkatan harga Bahan Bakar Minyak BBM di tingkat internasional, dan harga BBM jenis tertentu yang tetap, meningkatkan beban belanja subsidi BBM dalam APBN. Subsidi BBM yang berlebihan menimbulkan dampak negatif, sehingga perlu dilakukan upaya reformasi subsidi BBM jenis tertentu, salah satunya adalah kebijakan pengalihan alokasi anggaran subsidi BBM jenis tertentu melalui peningkatan harga BBM bersubsidi. Studi ini bertujuan menghitung potensi beban belanja subsidi yang dapat diturunkan/dialihkan dari upaya perbaikan kebijakan subsidi BBM dan memperkirakan dampak dari pengalihan alokasi anggaran subsidi BBM terhadap perekonomian nasional, baik terhadap output, pertumbuhan ekonomi, pendapatan masyarakat, maupun tenaga kerja. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa, pada tahun 2012, setiap 1 persen pengalihan alokasi anggaran subsidi BBM jenis tertentu, maka harga BBM bersubsidi akan meningkat sebesar 0,6 persen secara rata-rata, dan konsumsi BBM bersubsidi akan menurun sebesar 0,06 persen. Dengan menggunakan analisis Tabel Input-Output I-O Indonesia tahun 2012 yang di-update dengan metode RAS dari Tabel IO Indonesia tahun 2008, menunjukan bahwa pengalihan alokasi anggaran subsidi BBM pada tahun 2012 yang menurunkan konsumsi BBM sebesar 6 persen dan apabilat dialokasikan ke bidang infrastruktur, sektor industri non migas atau sektor pertanian, ternyata mampu meningkatkan output, nilai tambah atau PDB, pendapatan masyarakat, dan lapangan kerja dalam perekonomian nasional. Output perekonomian dan pendapatan rumah tangga nasional akan maksimal apabila pengalihan alokasi anggaran subsidi BBM tersebut dialokasikan untuk investasi di bidang infrastruktur. Nilai tambah bruto PDB dan penyerapan tenaga kerja akan maksimal jika pengalihan alokasi anggaran subsidi BBM dilakukan untuk investasi di sektor pertanian. Sedangkan investasi di sektor industri non migas dari pengalihan alokasi anggeran subsidi BBM tidak dapat mengoptimalkan dampaknya terhadap perekonomian nasional.

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ABSTRACTThe increase in domestic demand, increase in international prices of fuel oil and fixed price of certain types of subsidized fuel, causing the increase of national budget APBN expenditure in certain types of fuel subsidy. Excessive fuel subsidies has a negative impact, so it is necessary to reforms several fuel subsidy, one of the policy is saving certain types of fuel subsidy through increased prices of subsidized fuel. This study aims to calculate the potential cost of subsidy that can be derived reallocate from the fuel subsidy policy reform and estimate the impact of the fuel subsidy savings to the national economy, both on output, economic growth, incomes, and employment. The study shows that in 2012 every 1 percent r reallocations in certain types of fuel subsidy, the subsidized fuel prices will increase by 0,6 percent on average, and the consumption of subsidized fuel will decrease by 0,06 percent. By using analysis Input Output I O Table of Indonesia in 2012 which is updated with the RAS method from I O Table of Indonesia in 2008, it shows that 100 percent reallocations in fuel subsidies in 2012 that lowered fuel consumption by 6 percent and the savings are allocated to the infrastructure sector, non oil industrial sector or the agricultural sector, was able to increase output, value added or GDP, incomes, and employment in the national economy. Economic output and household national income would be maximized if the fuel subsidy savings allocated for investment in infrastructure. Gross Domestic Product GDP and employment would be maximized if the fuel subsidy savings allocated for investment in the agricultural sector. While investment in non oil sector of the allocated fuel subsidy savings cannot optimize its impact on the national economy."