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"ABSTRAK Studi ini mencoba menggali lebih dalam kedalam salah satu faktor dari modelFama-French three factor model, yakni faktor size effect. Studi ini sekali lagimembuktikan keberadaan dari size effect pada periode penelitian 10 tahun denganhorizon bulanan. Studi ini juga mencoba menggali lebih dalam, faktor-faktor apasajakah yang sesungguhnya mempengaruhi size effect. Faktor-faktor yangpotensial pada umumnya berkaitan erat dengan indikator makroekonomi dananomali-anomali lainnya. Studi ini mencoba menganlisa, variabel manakah yangakan memengaruhi size effect bulanan di Indonesia.

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ABSTRACT This study explores deeper into one of Fama and French’s factor from the threefactor model, which is the size effect. This study proves again the presence of sizeeffect for a 10 year period in a monthly time horizon, and tries to dig deeper intowhat factors actually creates the size effect. The potential factors are closelyrelated to macroeconomic indicators as well as other anomalies that affectsreturns. This study tries to analyze, which of these variables will affect themonthly size effect in Indonesia."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan kinerja portolio yang dibentuk. Portfolio dibentuk dengan menggunakan metoda efficient frontier yang sahamnya dipiilih berdasarkan tiga model yaitu Fama-French Three Factor Model, Carhart Four Factor Model, dan Fama-French Five Factor Model. Saham-saham yang terpengaruh oleh setiap variabel dalam setiap model akan dibentuk portfolio yang kemudian akan dilihat kinerjanya berdasarkan sharpe ratio dan treynor ratio. Penelitian ini menggunakan data return bulanan selama lima tahun dan data laporan keuangan dari masing-masing tahun selama periode data penelitian. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, ditemukan bahwa portfolio dengan Fama-French Three Factor Model merupakan portfolio yang lebih baik dibanding dengan portfolio Carhart Four Factor Model, sedangkan Fama-French Five Factor Model tidak dibentuk portfolio karena kurangnya jumlah saham yang terpengaruh oleh variabel dalam model tersebut.

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This study compared the performance of portfolios. Portfolios are built using efficient frontier method which stocks are selected based on three models that are Fama French Three Factor Model, Carhart Four Factor Model, and Fama French Five Factor Model. Stocks that are affected by each variables in each models are formed into portfolios which performance will be compared using sharpe ratio and treynor ratio. This study uses monthly stock returns through 5 years and financial reports data from every year of data period. The study resulted in porfolio based on Fama French Three Factor Model performed better than portfolio based on Carhart Four Factor Model, while Fama French Five Factor Model was not build into portfolio due to the lack of stocks affected by it 39 s variable."

"This paper constructed a small macro econometric model of Indonesia using annual timeseries data from 1986 to 2011. The model consists of 6 behavior, 1 identity equations, 7 endogenous and 5 exogenous variables. The model is generated by using simultaneousequationsimulation and the Two Stage Least Square (TSLS) technique.Then the dynamicsimulation of the whole model is performed. The performance of the model on thehistorical data is evaluated based on Root Mean Square Percentage Error (RMSPE).Fiscaland monetary policies are simulated in order to develop the multiplier. Finally,forecasting is generated to identify the future economic performance of Indonesia."

"Studi mengenai aglomerasi ekonomi sudah cukup banyak dibahas dalam literatur. Akan tetapi, studi yang menunjukkan hubungan kausal di negara berkembang, yang didominasi oleh sektor informal dan pekerja dengan skill yang rendah, masih terbatas. Salah satu kendalanya, pada keterbatasan data longitudinal dan data ukuran perkotaan yang belum dapat menggambarkan kepadatan ekonomi. Untuk melengkapi gap literatur, studi ini memperbaiki ukuran kota menjadi urban dan suburban, yang mencerminkan arus commuting, dengan menggunakan data Landscan 2010 dan 2015 sehingga dapat menggambarkan ukuran kepadatan ekonomi yang lebih baik dan mengurangi bias akibat measurement error. Secara empiris, hubungan kausal antara ukuran kota terhadap premium pasar tenaga kerja individu diperoleh dengan menggunakan skor indeks risiko kejadian gempa dan ukuran kekasaran kabupaten sebagai instrument variable (IV) dan penggunaan industri fixed effect untuk mengatasi masalah endogenitas dalam mengestimasi parameter. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa kepadatan kota dua kali lebih besar, meningkatkan upah sebesar 53 persen. Hasil ini lebih tinggi dari sebagian besar literatur lainnya, yang disebabkan sampel hanya meliputi wilayah perkotaan dan penggunaan ukuran kepadatan yang lebih presisi dibandingkan berdasarkan batas administratif, sehingga masalah bias akibat measurement error sangat mungkin diatasi dengan baik.

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The study of economic agglomeration has been widely discussed in the literature. However, studies that show causal relations in developing countries, which are dominated by the informal sector and workers with low skills, are still limited. The constraints are limitation of longitudinal data and urban size data, which cannot yet describe economic density. To complete the literature gap, this study improves the size of cities to become urban and suburban, reflecting the flow of commuting, using the 2010 and 2015 Landscan data to measure economic density better and reduce bias due to measurement errors. Empirically, using this density and using the 2SLS estimation technique with instrument variables in the form of earthquake risk and ruggedness measures and using industry and occupation fixed effect, the result of a city twice as large can increase wages 53 percent. This result is higher than most other literature because the sample only covers urban areas. The use of density measurements is more precise than based on administrative boundaries, so the problem of bias due to measurement error is very likely to be adequately resolved."

"The purpose of this book is to present a methodology for designing and tuning fuzzy expert systems in order to identify nonlinear objects; that is, to build input-output models using expert and experimental information. The results of these identifications are used for direct and inverse fuzzy evidence in forecasting and diagnosis problem solving.The book is organised as follows : Chapter 1 presents the basic knowledge about fuzzy sets, genetic algorithms and neural nets necessary for a clear understanding of the rest of this book. Chapter 2 analyzes direct fuzzy inference based on fuzzy if-then rules. Chapter 3 is devoted to the tuning of fuzzy rules for direct inference using genetic algorithms and neural nets. Chapter 4 presents models and algorithms for extracting fuzzy rules from experimental data. Chapter 5 describes a method for solving fuzzy logic equations necessary for the inverse fuzzy inference in diagnostic systems. Chapters 6 and 7 are devoted to inverse fuzzy inference based on fuzzy relations and fuzzy rules. Chapter 8 presents a method for extracting fuzzy relations from data. All the algorithms presented in Chapters 2-8 are validated by computer experiments and illustrated by solving medical and technical forecasting and diagnosis problems. Finally, Chapter 9 includes applications of the proposed methodology in dynamic and inventory control systems, prediction of results of football games, decision making in road accident investigations, project management and reliability analysis. "

"Semakin meningkatnya kebutuhan masyarakat pada energi semakin mendorong berkembangnya teori manajemen permintaan energi. Indonesia sebagai negarayang mengalami peningkatan kebutuhan konsumsi premium masih membutuhkan perbaikan dalam tata kelolakebijakan energinya. Salahsatunya dalam melakukan peramalan. Oleh karena itu,Dibutuhkan suatu cara agar dapat melakukan peramalan konsumsi BBM premium di Indonesia.Dalam penelitian ini, peramalan dilakukandengan dua cara. Yaitu dengan menggunakan Multi Linear Regrresi dan Neural network. Hasil yang didapat menunjukkan bahwa metode Multi linear regresi memperoleh keakuratan yang lebih baik dibanding Neural network.

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The increasing of energy consumption encouraging the development of energy demand management theory. Indonesia as a country which have increasing consumption premium fuel in few years is need to improve their energy policy, especially in forecasting. Therefore, there are need a methode to forecast premium demand in Indonesia. In this research, forecasting is done with using Multi Linear Regression and Neural Network. The result is the accuration of Multi Linear Regression methode better than the accuration of Neural network methode."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan menyelidiki keputusan menikah dikalangan perempuan terhadap pengaruh ekpektasi dari output perkawinan dalam proses pengambilan keputusan dan mengkaji premi upah pernikahan bagi laki-laki dan perempuan serta mencoba mengeksplorasi bias seleksi pada karakteristik yang dapat diamati. Data yang digunakan adalah data cross-sectional dari Survei Kehidupan Keluarga Indonesia 4 (IFLS4). Pertama, penelitian ini membuat sebuah model empiris dimana variabel probabilitas bekerja dan probabilitas memiliki anak sebagai variabel proksi terhadap ekspektasi dari output pernikahanan yang akan mempengaruhi probabilitas keputusan pernikahan perempuan. Kedua, untuk mengkaji premi upah, penelitian ini mempertimbangkan pernikahan sebagai perlakuan non-acak dengan potensi hasil upah yang heterogen untuk mengkaji premi upah di Indonesia. Kemudian, dengan menggunakan propensity score matching, bias seleksi antara pria dan wanita yang menikah dan lajang dapat ditentukan. Kesimpulannya pertama, keputusan menikah perempuan ditentukan oleh ekspektasi dari output perkawinan, yaitu peluang untuk bekerja dan peluang untuk mempunyai anak, serta oleh karakteristik individu itu sendiri, seperti usia, agama, dan suku. Kedua, terdapat faktor lain yang mempengaruhi keputusan pernikahan perempuan, namun dalam skala yang lebih kecil. Kecil kemungkinan untuk menikah bagi perempuan yang tinggal di kota dan ditemukan premi upah pernikahan baik bagi laki-laki maupun perempuan meskipun perempuan mempunyai premi upah pernikahan yang lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan laki-laki.

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This study tries to investigate the decision to marry among women on the effect of expected marital output in the decision-making process, examines the marriage wage premium for men and women, and tries to explore selection bias on observable characteristics using cross-sectional data from IFLS4. First, an empirical model is proposed where probability to work and probability to have children are used as proxies of expected marital output which will influence the probability of women’s marriage decision. Second, the study considering marriage as a non-random treatment with heterogenous potential outcomes of wage to examines wage premium in Indonesia. Then, using propensity score matching, selection bias between married and single men and women has been determined. The conclusions are first, women’s marriage decision determined by the expected marital output, which are probability to work and probability to have a child or children, and by the individual characteristics itself, such as age, religion and ethnicity. Second, other factors affect women’s marriage decisions, but to a lesser extent. Marriage is less likely for women who live in urban area and we find a marriage wage premium for both men and women though women have smaller marriage wage premium as compared to men."

"AbstrakOne aspect that concerns investors in valuing stocks is financial performance. The purpose of this research is to examine the effect of financial performance, firm size, and corporate social responsibility disclosure to the stock price in food and beverage sector companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Using a purposive sampling method has done the sample collection method and eleven of eighteen companies, which listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange in the years of 20013-2017, are used as the research samples. The method used in this study was Structural Equation Modeling Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS). The result of the research shows that financial performance, firm size, and corporate social responsibility disclosure affect the stock price. This result implies that the firm should improve the internal factors to increase stock prices."

"Penelitian mengenai hubungan likuiditas dan return di pasar modal terus mengalami perkembangan sejak pertama kali dilakukan oleh Amihud dan Mendelson (1986) terutama dalam hal ukuran yang digunakan. Penelitian kali ini dilakukan untuk menguji persistensi ada tidaknya premi likuiditas di Indonesiadengan mempelajari portofolio berdasarkan tiga ukuran likuiditas, yakni zeros, amihud, dan FHT. Berdasarkan analisis yang dilakukan, peneliti menemukan bahwa permintaan premi likuiditas terjadi pada saat krisis finansial.Selain itu, peneliti juga menemukan bahwa investor dalam mengkoreksi keputusan investasi mereka setiap enam minggu.

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Research on the relationship of liquidity and return on capital markets has been developing since the first conducted by Amihud and Mendelson (1986), especially in terms of the measurement used. This study is conducted to examine the persistence liquidity premiums in Indonesia by studying a portfolio based on three measures of liquidity, zeros, Amihud, and FHT. Based on the analysis, I found that the demand for liquidity premium exists on the financial crisis. In addition, it is also found that investors adjust their investment decision in every six weeks."

"Penelitian ini mengenai hubungan likuiditas dan return di pasar modal terus mengalami perkembangan sejak pertama kali dilakukan oleh Amihud dan Mendelson (1986) terutama dalam hal ukuran yang digunakan. Penelitian kali ini dilakukan untuk menguji persistensi ada tidaknyan premi likuiditas di Indonesia dengan mempelajari portofolio berdasarkan tiga ukuran likuiditas, yakni zeros, amihud dan FHT. Berdasarkan analisis yang dilakukan, peneliti menemukan bahwa permintaan premi likuiditas terjadi pada saat krisis finansial. Selain itu, peneliti juga menemukan bahwa investor dalam mengkoreksi keputusan investasi mereka setiap enam minggu.

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Research on the relationship of liquidity and return on capital markets has been developing since the first conducted by Amihud and Mendelson (1986), especially in terms of the measurement used. This study is conducted to examine the persistence liquidity premiums in Indonesia by studying a portfolio based on three measures of liquidity, zeros, Amihud, and FHT. Based on the analysis, found that the demand for liquidity premium exists on the financial crisis. In addition, it is also found that investorsadjust their investment decision in every six weeks."