"Pandemi COVID-19 telah menimbulkan berbagai permasalahan dan dampak negatif bagi perekonomian Indonesia, yang mengakibatkan penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang signifikan tahun 2020. Hal ini berdampak terhadap peningkatan kerentanan ekonomi dan mengancam ketahanan ekonomi. Penelitian ini meneliti pengaruh penerimaan pajak, suku bunga, harga minyak, harga emas, Indeks Dow Jones, dan COVID-19 terhadap nilai tukar, IHSG, dan ketahanan ekonomi serta merumuskan strategi mitigasi kerentanan ekonomi akibat pandemi COVID-19. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Vector Auto Regression (VAR)/Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) dan regresi logistik. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan penerimaan pajak, suku bunga, harga emas, Indeks Dow Jones, dan COVID-19 berpengaruh signifikan terhadap nilai tukar. Penerimaan pajak, suku bunga, harga minyak, Indeks Dow Jones, dan COVID-19 berpengaruh signifikan terhadap IHSG. Selain itu, penerimaan pajak di masa pandemi COVID-19, suku bunga di masa pandemi COVID-19, harga minyak, Indeks Dow Jones, dan IHSG berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ketahanan ekonomi. Strategi kebijakan untuk memitigasi kerentanan ekonomi pada masa pandemi COVID-19 adalah kombinasi kebijakan fiskal, moneter, dan kesehatan dengan menjaga penerimaan pajak tidak turun serta menurunkan suku bunga dan kasus COVID-19 secara simultan.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused various problems and negative impacts on the Indonesian economy which resulted in a significant decline in economic growth in 2020. This will increase economic vulnerability and threaten economic resilience. This study examines the effect of tax revenues, interest rates, crude oil prices, gold prices, the Dow Jones Index, and COVID-19 on exchange rates, JCI, and economic resilience and formulates strategies in order to mitigate economic vulnerability due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This study uses the Vector Auto Regression (VAR)/Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and logistic regression method. The results showed that tax revenues, interest rates, gold prices, the Dow Jones Index, and COVID-19 had a significant effect on the exchange rate. Tax revenues, interest rates, crude oil prices, the Dow Jones Index, and COVID-19 had a significant effect on the JCI. In addition, tax revenues during the COVID-19 pandemic, interest rates during the COVID-19 pandemic, crude oil prices, the Dow Jones Index, and the JCI had a significant effect on economic resilience. The policy strategy in order to mitigate economic vulnerability during the COVID-19 pandemic is a combination of fiscal, monetary, and health policies by simultaneously keeping tax revenues from going down and reducing interest rates and COVID-19 cases."
Jakarta: Sekolah Kajian Stratejik dan Global Universitas Indonesia, 2021