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"Data runtun waktu keuangan umum digunakan oleh investor untuk menganalisis pergerakan harga suatu aset investasi. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) adalah model runtun waktu yang biasa digunakan untuk menganalisis data keuangan. GARCH dapat menangkap pengelompokkan volatilitas yang menjadi karakteristik pada data-data keuangan. Pada dunia perekonomian terdapat keterkaitan antara suatu data keuangan dengan data keuangan yang lain. Oleh karena itu dikembangkan model multivariat GARCH (MGARCH) untuk memperlihatkan informasi tentang pergerakan bersama dua variabel atau lebih serta menggambarkan interaksi antardata keuangan yang diteliti. Pada skiripsi ini dibahas versi multivariat dari GARCH, yaitu Baba Engle Kroner dan Kraft (BEKK) GARCH. Pembahasan dimulai dari bagaimana pembentukan struktur varian kovarian bersyarat model BEKK MGARCH, penaksiran parameter, sampai analisis data menggunakan model BEKK MGARCH dengan asumsi error model berdistribusi normal multivariat. Metode yang digunakan untuk mengestimasi parameter adalah metode maximum likelihood. Penurunan analitik pada metode maximum likelihood dibantu dengan sifat yang ada pada quasi maximum likelihood di mana penurunan fungsi likelihood dilakukan dengan menurunkan setiap elemen pada matriks varian kovarian bersyaratnya. Namun estimasi secara analitik tidak dapat digunakan karena persamaan yang non linear, maka digunakan penyelesaian secara numerik menggunakan algoritma quasi-Newton Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfarb, dan Shanno (BFGS). Kemudian model diimplementasikan pada data harian harga penutupan saham BMRI dan BBCA. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas saham BMRI dan BBCA tanggal 01 April 2021 sampai dengan 31 Maret 2022 dipengaruhi oleh shock perusahaan sendiri pada masa lampau.

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Financial time series data has been widely used by investors to analyze the movement of any asset pricing. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) is a time series model that usually used to analyze financial datas. GARCH can capture the volatility clustering phenomenon found in most financial datas. In the economic world, there is relation between one to another financial data. Hence, GARCH model has been developed into its multivariate version called multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) to capture the information about comovement also the relationship between two or more variables. In this undergraduate thesis, we explain Baba Engle Kroner and Kraft (BEKK) multivariat GARCH, starting from how the structure of variance and covariance developed, parameter estimation, to implementation of BEKK MGARCH model assuming the error model has multivariate normal distribution. Parameter estimation will be done using the maximum likelihood method with property of quasi maximum likelihood. Parameter estimation can not be solved analytically because the likelihood function is non linear, so we used numerically method called quasi-Newton with Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfarb, dan Shanno (BFGS) algorithms. Then, this BEKK MGARCH model will be used to check the volatility spillover between BMRI and BBCA stock return. The analysis in chapter 4 shows that there is no volatility spillover between BMRI and BBCA. The volatility of their return is affected by their own past shock."

"Lingkungan bisnis sedang mengalami perubahan yang cukup signifikan Saat ini perusahaan dituntut untuk lebih fleksibel dalam beradaptasi dengan lingkungan bisnisnya baik secara internal area sekitarnya hingga dunia Oleh karena itu salah satu cara agar perusahaan dapat lebih fleksibel dalam beradaptasi dengan lingkungan bisnisnya adalah dengan pemanfaatan TI Adapun tujuan dari pemanfaatan TI di dalam perusahaan antara lain untuk mempermudah dalam mengakses informasi yang dibutuhkan oleh perusahaan begitu pun halnya dengan pemrosesan dan pengolahan data data yang berjalan di perusahaan tersebut sehingga diharapkan dengan pemanfaatan TI ini akan tercapai efisiensi yang pada akhirnya dapat meningkatkan produktivitas dan pelayanan perusahaan terhadap pelanggan dan mitra kerjanya Namun pemanfaatan TI pun membutuhkan investasi yang besar selain tantangan lain seperti penyelarasan strategi bisnis perusahaan dengan strategi pemanfaatan TI serta paradigma TI hanya sebagai cost centre Oleh karena itu sebelum melakukan investasi TI ada baiknya perusahaan untuk melakukan kajian analisis mengenai investasi TI yang akan dilaksanakan beserta identifikasi risiko yang mungkin akan menghambat investasi tersebut Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi manfaat bisnis yang akan diperoleh oleh PT XYZ dari rencana investasi pengembangan Oracle Finance serta melakukan identifikasi risiko yang mungkin menghambat terlaksananya investasi tersebut Hasil penelitian adalah teridentifikasinya 2 manfaat bisnis dengan nilai total manfaat sebesar Rp 3 633 202 500 dan 6 KRI yang berpotensi menghambat rencana investasi Diharapkan penelitian ini dapat memberi masukan bagi perusahaan dalam pelaksanaan rencana investasi serta memperkaya penelitian tentang manfaat bisnis dari investasi TI.

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The business environment is undergoing significant changes Currently company nowadays requires to be more flexible in adapting to the business environment internally to its surroundings and to the global world Therefore one way that companies can be more flexible in adapting to the business environment is the use of IT The purpose of using IT in the company among others is to facilitate the access to the information needed by the company as was the case with the data processing runs in the company will achieve efficiency by using IT which in times will improve productivity and company services to its partners and clients However the use of IT often requires large investment in addition to other challenges such as the alignment of business strategy with IT strategy and paradigm with IT merely as cost centre Therefore before making IT investments a company should develop a study regarding the analysis of IT investment plans to be carried out along with the risk identification that might hamper the investment This study aims to identify the business benefits that can be gained by PT XYZ from its investment plan on upgrading the Oracle Finance as well to identify the risk that may impede the implementation of the investment plan Results of the study shows two main business benefits that can be gain by PT XYZ with a total value of benefits Rp 3 633 202 500 and 6 Key Risk Indicators that potentially hamper the investment plan Hopefully this research can provide inputs for the company in the implemetation of the investment plan and enrich research on the business benefits of IT investment "

"Terkait fenomena krisis keuangan global yang terjadi saat ini, banyak sekali perusahaan yang hancur dan mengalami kebangkrutan. Saat sebuah perusahaan mengalami kebangkrutan, para investor dan krediturnya tentu akan sangat dirugikan. Oleh karena itu, investor dan kreditur memerlukan alat untuk memprediksi kondisi financial distress sebagai indikasi awal terjadinya kebangkrutan dengan tepat. Terdapat beberapa model yang dapat menjadi alat untuk itu, diantaranya yang dikemukakan oleh Altman (1968), Ohlson (1980), Zmijewski (1984), dan Springate (1978).Skripsi ini melakukan perbandingan keempat model prediksi financial distress di atas dalam konteks perusahaan di Indonesia. Perbandingan dilakukan dengan menganalisis tingkat akurasi model dan tingkat kesalahannya. Sampel yang digunakan adalah perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di BEI selama tahun 2005-2008. Teknik pengambilan sampel adalah matched-pair sampling dengan total sampel sebanyak 79 perusahaan.Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model asli yang paling baik adalah model Springate. Setelah dilakukan pengujian tambahan dengan mengubah nilai cutoffnya, model yang paling baik tetap Springate. Namun jika dilakukan modifikasi model, model yang paling baik adalah Ohlson. Pada bagian akhir penelitian ini mencoba melakukan prediksi atas 30 perusahaan yang terdaftar di BEI menggunakan model Springate asli, model Springate dengan perubahan cutoff, dan model modifikasi Ohlson. Hasil prediksi menunjukkan lima perusahaan diprediksi akan mengalami financial distress di masa depan.

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During global financial crisis, many corporations suffer from failure and bankruptcy. When a company suffers bankruptcy, its creditors and investors will have to suffer excessive loss. Therefore, they will need tools to accurately predict financial distress condition as an indication for bankruptcy. There are some models available, such as Altman (1968), Ohlson (1980), Zmijewski (1984), and Springate (1978).This research wants to know which financial distress prediction models is the most suitable to be used in Indonesia. To decide the best model, an analysis will be conducted based on accuracy and error rates of each models. Also, the purpose of this research is to conduct sensitivity analysis on the models, by modifying the cutoff score and modifying the whole model. Lastly, this research will make predictions for 30 companies listed in BEI by using the best known model. The samples used in this research is manufacturing companies listed in BEI during 2005-2008. The sampling technique used in this research is matched-pair sampling totaling 79 companies.The results of this research shows that Springate model is the best original model (without any modification). Even after modifying the cutoff scores, Springate model is still the best. After modifying the whole models, Ohlson model is proven to be the best, having superior accuracy and error rates of all models. This research also shows that between 30 predicted companies using the best three models of all treatment, there are 5 that will suffer financial distress in the future."

"ABSTRAKTesis ini membahas tentang analisis rasio keuangan seperti Return on Assets (ROA), Earning Per Share (EPS) dan Net Sales (Sales Growth) yang berpengaruh terhadap pengadopsian program Stock Option pada perusahaan publik yang melaksanakan Employee Stock Option Plans (ESOP) I tahun 2000-2007. Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk mengetahui pengaruh ROA, EPS dan Sales Growth terhadap ESOP dan juga membandingkan kinerja rasio keuangan tersebut sebelum dan sesudah pelaksanaan ESOP. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder dari laporan keuangan perusahaan dengan metode analisis deskriptif kuantitatif. Pengujian sebab akibat ini menggunakan regresi berganda dan uji beda rata-rata (mean).Dari hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa rasio keuangan Sales growth yang hanya berpengaruh positif secara signifikan terhadap ESOP sedangkan ROA dan EPS berpengaruh negatif. Sedangkan untuk perbandingan sebelum dan sesudah pelaksanaan ESOP rasio keuangan ROA dan Sales Growth memperlihatkan hasil positif sedangkan EPS tidak signifikan atau negatif, namun untuk ketiga rasio tersebut ROA, EPS dan Sales Growth memperlihatkan kenaikan kinerja keuangan perusahaan sampai 3 (tiga) tahun kedepan sejak pelaksanaan ESOP I.

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ABSTRACT

This thesis is about analyzing the effect of financial rasio such as Returnof Assets (ROA), Earning per Share (EPS) and Net Sales (Sales Growth) to the addoption of Stock Option program on the company which apply Employee StockOption Plans (ESOP) 1 in year 2000 until 2007. The purpose of this reseach is to analize what are the effect of ROA, EPS and Sales Growth to ESOP and to compare the performance financial rasio before and after the ESOP apply. In thisreseach we use secondary data from company financial report with kuantitative descreptive analize methode. The test of this effect will use double regresion anddifference mean.

From the result in this research showed that the financial ratio of Sales

growth that has the significant positive effect to ESOP and for both ROA and EPS have negative impact. And for the comparison before and after the ESOP apply, financial ratio of ROA and Sales Growth showed positive result and for the EPS is negative or insignificant. But for all the ratio ROA, EPS and Sales Growthshowed significant inprovement of company financial performance until 3 (three) years to come since the application of ESOP I."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji apakah EVA dan laba bersih mempengaruhi kemungkinan perusahaan menjadi target merger dan akuisisi. Pengujian ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode regresi logistik dengan menggunakan data perusahaan yang menjadi target merger dan akuisisi dan terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia pada tahun 2008 sampai 2012. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa EVA dan laba bersih mempengaruhi probabilita perusahaan menjadi target merger dan akuisisi. Nilai EVA yang tinggi akan meningkatkan probabilita perusahaan menjadi target merger dan akuisisi. Sebaliknya, laba bersih yang tinggi akan menurunkan probabilita perusahaan menjadi target. Pengujian lanjutan menunjukkan bahwa evaluasi atas nilai EVA oleh investor, kondisional pada nilai laba perusahaan tersebut. Perusahaan dengan EVA yang tinggi dan laba yang rendah, maupun perusahaan dengan EVA yang rendah dan laba bersih yang tinggi memiliki kemungkinan untuk menjadi target merger dan akusisi. Namun, perusahaan dengan EVA dan laba bersih yang rendah tidak memiliki pengaruh terhadap probabilita perusahaan menjadi target.

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The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of EVA and earnings of the company that became the target of mergers and acquisitions. This study uses logistic regression method of listed companies in Indonesian Stock Exchange that became mergers and acquisitions’ target during 2008 to 2012. Results of this study indicate that the higher the EVA, the higher the probability of a company becoming a target. In contrast, higher earnings will decrease the probability of the company being targeted. Further analysis reveals that investor's evaluation of EVA is conditional upon company’s earnings. Results show that high EVA and low earnings or low EVA and high earnings increase the probability of a company becoming a target. However, low EVA and earnings has no effect on the probability of being targeted for mergers or acquisitions."

"The purpose of this thesis is to analyze feasibility study based marketing and financial analysis of factory expansion of Olympic Group in Surabaya. Nowadays Olympic has more and more order from customer both domestic market and international market. Now the capacity of production has been already 720,000 units per year or value 250 M per year but it is still not enough to cover the orders. In order to fulfil the order and to reduce delivery cost from manufacturing Bogor to customers in Surabaya, Olympic has to increase the production capacity by expansion factory in several cities around in Indonesia. One of the city is Surabaya. In these thesis, I would like to examine the profitability in commencing the expansion of new factory in Surabaya and the feasibility of the business through the use of financial tools namely Payback Period, Profitability Index, Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Criteria for a project to be accepted is where Net Present Value is positive, Internal Rate of Return exceed the cost of capital and Profitability Index exceed 1. The project has result positive Net Present Value as Rp. 231,000,000.00;Internal Rate of Return (IRR) as 26 % which is exceed the cost of capital; Profitability Index exceeding to 1 as 2.47 ; Payback period is 2.06 years which is less than the period of project 10 years. Based on real option analysis, this factory expansion have positive Net Present Value as Rp 293,500,000. It means that there is no option to expand to some other location both of the optimistic and pessimistic forecast. Based on analysis, the project is feasible . The marketing mix strategy used to serve Olympic target market is SIVA (Solution, Information, Value, Access) model. The SIVA model take into account both buyers and sellers objectives by focusing primarily on the buyer . that adapted by combination between the 4Ps and 4Cs model, where 4Ps is a product ? centric approach while 4Cs is customer ? centric approach.When valuing capital budgeting project, firstly, it is recommended better to use real option analysis. Because from a valuation standpoint, these options are valuable because they allow decision makers to react to favorable or unfavorable new situations by dynamically adjusting the capital budgeting decision process for flexibility associated with the project. And secondly, it is recommended for marketing strategy should focus comprehensively on customer orientation by SIVA (Solution, Information, Value and Access) for all activities in Strategic Business Unit (SBU) rather than 4 Ps which on product-centric orientation."

"In decision making process a manager has to analyze the internal corporate in order to analyze the environment and the industry. In general the use of ratio analysis has weaknesses since the methodology is univariate. The ratios as variables have high correlation with each other.

The objects of this research are 1985-1987 financial statements of 19 pharmaceutical companies, which is located in DKI Jakarta. Based on the data available 12 financial ratios are calculated with Lotus 123 then they are classified into 5 groups. They are the types of companies, their sources of funds, ages, sizes and kinds of products. Two classes divide each group further by using Discriminant Analysis.

It's found that between those groups the patterns of the financial ratios are different. Certain ratios appear as discriminants for those groups more often than other ratios. The repeated occurrences of some ratios indicate the strength of discriminant analysis, which is easily applied in business. However, the findings are sensitive to some factors such as geographical, demographical factors and characteristics of industry."

"Laporan magang ini membahas mengenai evaluasi atas proses penyusunan kajian studi kelayakan finansial pada proyek jalan tol yang dilakukan oleh PT MAYC Advisory selaku anak usaha PT Yuga Labs Indonesia yang berfokus pada bidang jasa konsultansi keuangan. PT Yuga Labs adalah kantor akuntan publik yang menyediakan jasa audit & asurans, konsultansi, financial advisory, risk advisory, dan jasa terkait pajak serta hukum kepada klien yang merupakan perusahaan privat maupun publik. Tugas PT MAYC Advisory dalam proyek ini adalah untuk menguji dan menghitung kelayakan finansial sebuah proyek menggunakan parameter NPV, IRR, dan payback period termasuk sebelumnya terlebih dahulu membuat model finansial dan menghitung tingkat diskonto sebagai landasan penghitungan kelayakan finansial. Berdasarkan hasil evaluasi, proses penyusunan model finansial dan kalkulasi kelayakan finansial sudah sesuai dengan teori yang ada. Akan tetapi, ditemukan perbedaan dalam metode yang digunakan PT MAYC Advisory dalam menghitung tingkat diskonto dengan teori yang ada namun perbedaan ini disertai dengan alasan yang kuat. Laporan magang ini juga membahas tentang refleksi diri penulis selama pelaksanaan kegiatan magang serta rencana pengembangan diri usai penulisan.

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This internship report discusses the evaluation of the process of preparing a financial feasibility study on a toll road project carried out by PT MAYC Advisory as a subsidiary of PT Yuga Labs Indonesia which focuses on the field of financial consulting services. PT Yuga Labs is a public accounting firm that provides audit & assurance services, consultancy, financial advisory, risk advisory, and tax and legal related services to clients who are both private and public companies. The task of PT MAYC Advisory in this project is to test and calculate the financial feasibility of a project using the parameters of NPV, IRR, and payback period, including first making a financial model and calculating the discount rate as the basis for calculating financial feasibility. Based on the evaluation results, the process of preparing the financial model and calculating the financial feasibility is in accordance with the existing theory. However, there were differences in the method used by PT MAYC Advisory in calculating the discount rate with the existing theory, but this difference was accompanied by strong reasons. This internship report also discusses the writer's self-reflection during the implementation of the internship and self-development plans after writing."