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"ABSTRAKEnergi merupakan aspek penting dan variabel tetap yang keberadaannya tidak dapat dipisahkan dalam kegiatan pembangunan. Dibutuhkan ketersediaan energi yang beragam dan terjangkau dalam jangka panjang dan dapat dimanfaatkan untuk berbagai keperluan pembangunan tanpa menimbulkan eksternalitas negatif.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa potret dan kebijakan energi untuk membangun skenario dan strategi kebijakan energi Indonesia dalam rangka mempersiapkan fondasi pembangunan di Indonesia. Metode penelitian yang digunakan menggunakan paradigma konstruktivisme dengan jenis penelitian deksriptif yang terdiri dari tiga tahapan. Tahap pertama adalah scenario planning Ringland, dilanjutkan scenario building Avin dan Dembner dan diakhiri dengan tahapan perancangan kebijakan energi jangka panjang.Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kelangkaan energi di Indonesia saat ini sebagian besar dipengaruhi oleh buruknya sistem tata kelola energi. Temuan atas berbagai inkonstitusionalitas kebijakan, serta fragmentasi kebijakan yang sangat menonjolkan ego sektoral sangat mendominasi pola pengelolaan energi Indonesia.Di sisi lain, kebijakan energi Indonesia belum berlandaskan pada integrasi dengan sektor-sektor lain di luar energi seperti sektor ekonomi, sosial, politik, lingkungan, dan teknologi. Akhirnya, empat skenario dibangun berdasarkan driving force yang membentuk kebijakan energi di Indonesia, yaitu demografi (pertumbuhan dan persebaran penduduk), cara pandang, lifestyle, politik lingkungan, good governance, otonomi daerah, fragmentasi politik, pertumbuhan ekonomi, efisiensi energi, harga energi dan investasi. Illusional scenario merupakan skenario yang paling mungkin terjadi dimana pertumbuhan ekonomi meningkat namun tidak terjadi peningkatan dalam faktor sosial politik Indonesia. Jika kondisi ini terus berlanjut, ancaman terhadap Pembangunan Indonesia semakin meningkat. Maka Peneliti merekomendasikan suatu model energy driven policy yang menempatkan energi sebagai leading sector dalam pembuatan kebijakan diantara sektor-sektor lainnya.

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ABSTRACTEnergy is an important aspect and fixed variable and its existence cannot be separated in development activities. Availability of diverse, affordable energy in the long run, and can be used for various construction purposes without causing a negative externality, is required.This study aims to analyze the portrait and energy policy scenarios and strategies to build Indonesia's energy policy in order to prepare the foundation for development in Indonesia. The method of this research uses the paradigm of constructivism and descriptive study which is consists of three stages. The first stage is Ringland scenario planning, followed by Avin and Dembner scenario building, and ends with designing a long-term energy policy.The results showed that the scarcity of energy in Indonesia is largely influenced by the poor energy management systems. Unconstitutionality of various policies as well as the policy fragmentation that really accentuate the sectoral ego, dominates the design of energy management of Indonesia.On the other hand, Indonesia's energy policy has not been based on integration with other sectors outside the energy sector as the economic, social, political, environmental, and technology. Finally, the four scenario built upon the driving force that shape energy policy in Indonesia, namely demographics (growth and population distribution), paradigm, lifestyle, environmental politics, good governance, decentralization, political fragmentation, economic growth, energy efficiency, energy prices and investment. Illutional scenario is the scenario most likely to occur when economic growth increases, meanwhile there was no increase in the Indonesian political and social factors. If this condition continues, the threat to Indonesia's development will increase. So that, the researchers recommend a model driven energy policy that puts energy as a leading sector in policy-making among other sectors."

"Seiring dengan percepatan globalisasi dan berakhirnya masa Perang Dingin, negara-negara semakin saling tergantung pada sektor energi. Kerjasama dan konflik merupakan pola hubungan yang muncul antar negara terkait keamanan energi. Situasi interdependensi dan common interst dalam hal keamanan energi menjadi dasar terbentuknya kerjasama energi. Bagi negara, kerjasama merupakan pilihan yang rasional dalam memenuhi keamanan energinya. Berbagai tipe kerjasama energi ditempuh oleh negara konsumen maupun produsen energi. Tulisan ini akan membahas situasi keamanan supply dan demand energi dalam hubungan antar negara. Keamanan energi berupa minyak bumi dan gas menjadi fokus utama tulisan ini dikarenakan dampak yang ditimbulkan keduanya dalam pasar energi global, ekonomi, hingga kebijakan luar negeri suatu negara. Hasil dari tulisan ini akan menunjukkan bagaimana interdependensi energi dan common interest negara akan minyak bumi dan gas , menjadi faktor yang memicu terciptanya kerjasama energi dalam berbagai tipe.

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Along with the globalization and the end of Cold War, states are going to be more dependent upon the energy sector. Cooperation and conflict are kind of relations occur related to energy security. The existence of interdependence and common interest become the foundation of the energy cooperation establishment. Cooperation is the rational choice for the states to fulfil their energy security. Various energy cooperation have been implemented by both consumer states and producer states. This literature review explain about the situation of energy security of supply and energy security of demand through the relations among states. Energy security which consists of oil and gas are the main focus of this paper as they have significant impact in the global energy market, economy, and states foreign policy. The result shows that energy interdependence and common interest toward oil and gas, turn out to be the factors causing the formation of energy cooperation in various type in the international relations."

"Skripsi ini membahas Ketahanan migas dalam perspektif kebijakan energi dan strategi NOC periode 1970-2010 melalui studi perbandingan Indonesia dan Malaysia. Penelitian ini adalah penelitian eksplanatif yang menggunakan metode kualitatif. Dengan menggunakan teori developmental state, konsep ketahanan energi (energy security), konsep desentralisasi, dan konsep paradigma kebijakan energi, hasil analisis dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa ketahanan migas di Malaysia lebih baik dibandingkan Indonesia.Hasil tersebut didasarkan atas kebijakan energi Malaysia yang mampu merespon dengan baik faktor karakteristik cadangan migas, karakteristik supply-demand migas, relasi pemerintah pusat dan daerah dalam pengelolaan sumber migas, dan relasi NOC dengan Pemerintah yang berperan terhadap ketahanan migas nasional. Selain itu, Petronas lebih unggul dalam jumlah kepemilikian cadangan migas baik di dalam negeri maupun luar negeri yang terlihat dari tingkat produksi migas yang mencapai dua juta barel setara minyak setiap hari. Keunggulan dari kebijakan energi dan strategi NOC Malaysia tidak terlepas dari perencanaan kebijakan energi yang lebih terkoordinasi, paradigma kebijakan energi supply demand dengan pendekatan demand side management yang mengkonstruksi kebijakan energi berdasarkan kondisi cadangan migas, dan model relasi pembagian tanggung jawab antara Petronas dengan Pemerintah Malaysia.

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This thesis discusses oil and gas security in perspective of energy policy and NOC?s strategies period 1970-2010 through comparative study in Indonesia and Malaysia. this is an explanative research using a qualitative method. In this research, the writer used the developmental state theory, the concept of energy security, decentralization concept, and the paradigm of energy policy concept, where the result of the analysis showed that oil and gas security in Malaysia is better compared to Indonesia.That result is based on Malaysia?s energy security policy that responds better to the following factors: characteristics of oil and gas reserves, characteristics of oil and gas supply-demand, the relationaship between central government and regional government, and the relationship between NOC and the government that contributed to national oil and gas security. Beside that, Petronas is superior in oil and gas ownership, both within and outside country. This is proven by their oil and gas production, which reaches two million boepd (barrel oil equivalent per day). The superior of Malaysia?s energy policy and NOC strategies cannot be separated from their more coordinated energy policy planning, a supply-demand energy policy paradigm using a demand side management approach that construct energy policy based on the condition of oil and gas reserves, and a relationship of shared responsibilities between Petronas and the Malaysian Government."

"Ketidakpastian energi di era globalisasi yang dilatarbelakangi oleh pengaruh Lingkungan Strategis: lokal, nasional, regional, dan internasional telah mengakibatkan carut-marutnya Sistem Ketahanan Energi Nasional (SKEN) di Indonesia sehingga diperlukan suatu model geostrategi perencanaan energi yang komprehensif dan interdisiplin. Model keuletan dan ketangguhan merupakan mixed model method yang mengidentifikasi karakteristik faktor-faktor eksternal dan internal secara kualitatif dan kuantitatif.Tujuan penelitian: 1). menganalisis faktor-faktor keuletan dan ketangguhan dalam dinamika sistem kebijakan ketahanan energi Indonesia pada empat variabel input; 2). Menganalisis tingkat pentingnya faktorfaktor keuletan dan ketangguhan terhadap Indikator Strategik output SKEN; dan 3). Menganalisis prioritas rencana stratejik intengrasi perencanaan Jaringan Energi ASEAN dalam pengembangan sistem ketahanan energi di Indonesia.Hasil penelitian selain merumuskan teori SKEN secara kontekstual juga menemukan model (Keuletan dan Ketangguhan) dalam pengembangan sistem ketahanan energi di Indonesia. Implikasi penelitian merekomendasikan pentingnya model keuletan dan ketangguhan dalam mentransformasi perencanaan dan kebijakan pengembangan sistem ketahanan energi Indonesia dalam pengembangan Jaringan Energi ASEAN.

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The uncertainty of energy in the era of globalization is grounded by the strategic environment influences; in local, national, regional, and international affecting the unclear National Energy Resilience System (SKEN) in Indonesia. Therefore, a comprehensive and interdisciplinary geostrategic planning model is required. The model, ductility and toughness, is proposed by using a mixed method study to identify external and internal factors characteristics in qualaitative and quantitative approach.

The study aims: 1) To analyze ductility and toughness factors in system dynamics in Indonesia's energy resilience system policy through four input variables; 2). To analyze the level of importance of ductility and toughness indicators on SKEN strategic planning output, and 3). To analyze the priority of strategic planning on ASEAN energy network planning related on Indonesia?s resilience energy system development.

The study has resulted not only to formulate the contextual of SKEN but also to find the model (ductility and toughness) upon development of Indonesia's reseilience energy system. Furthermore, the study has implication to recommend the importance of ductility and toughness factors to transform Indonesia's reseilience energy system planning and policy on ASEAN Energy Network development."

"Drawing on political science, economics, philosophy, theology, social anthropology, history, management studies, law, and other subject areas, In Search of Good Energy Policy brings together leading academics from across the social sciences and humanities to offer an innovative look at why science and technology, and the type of quantification they champion, cannot alone meet the needs of energy policy making in the future. Featuring world-class researchers from the University of Cambridge and other leading universities around the world, this innovative book presents an interdisciplinary dialogue in which scientists and practitioners reach across institutional divides to offer their perspectives on the relevance of multi-disciplinary research for 'real world' application. This work should be read by anyone interested in understanding how multidisciplinary research and collaboration is essential to crafting good energy policy."

"Fuel plays an important role in indonesia In line with the ongoing development, the consumption of fuei increases rapidly. Considering fuel as a sensitive· commodity, the government maintains the price of fuel at a very low price through subsidy. Later,it is realized that this policy has some negative effects, i.e. inefficiency in fuelconsumption, pollution, discourage the search for alternative energy sources, etc. However. the urgency of revoking fuel subsidy comes from the pressure of state budget ?s condition. Experiencing massive budget deficit, the government plans 10 cutits expenditure by reducing the subsidy. The subsidy reduction will cause the price of fuel to increase. While, we do not know the impact of the increase in fuel price on the economy.In view of that, the objectives of this thesis are. first, to estimate the likely impact of increasing the price of fuel on aggregate output. employment, saving and income distribution. Second, to detennine appropriate policy that may reduce the negative impact resulting from increasing price of fueLThe methodology used in this thesis is computable general equilibrium (CGE), CGEHas been selected because of its capability in describing interaction among sectors within economy. The advantage of using CGE models is that, one constructed, they yield a tractable tool for analyzing a wide range of possible policy changes. By using the CGE model, we do some scenarios of fuel price increase and investigate its impact on the economy The simulation result shows that the policy of increasing fuel price can be used to strengthen government budgeL However, the impact on unemployment should be seriously taken into consideration. Given the more vital role played by HSDO compare with that of gasoline and IDO in the economy, the percentage of price increase in HSDO should be lower than the other if the government wants to softenthe burden to society."