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Abstrak :
Kriminalitas mempengaruhi keputusan individu untuk bekerja pada sektor legal serta menciptakan timbulnya biaya peluang akibat perilaku asimetri. Penelitian ini menganalisis hubungan antara kriminalitas dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia periode 2011-2020, berfokus pada sejauh mana kriminalitas menghambat pertumbuhan ekonomi serta mengeksplorasi transmisinya melalui anggaran dan ketenagakerjaan. Model SAC Panel digunakan untuk mengantisipasi adanya ketergantungan spasial. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan adanya potensi kerugian yang signifikan dari peningkatan kriminalitas saat kondisi anggaran fungsi ketertiban-keamanan dan ketenagakerjaan kurang memadai. Di Indonesia, implikasi dari meningkatnya kriminalitas tidak hanya memberikan dampak merugikan bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi spillover bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi provinsi sekitarnya. ......Crime affects individual decisions to work in the legal sector and creates opportunity costs due to asymmetric behavior. This study analyzes the relationship between crime and economic growth in Indonesia for 2011-2020, focusing on how crime hinders economic growth and explores its transmission through budget and employment. A SAC Panel model is used to cover spatial dependencies. The estimation results show potential losses from increased crime when the budgetary conditions for law enforcement and employment functions are inadequate. In Indonesia, the implication of increasing crime does not only have a detrimental impact on the economic growth of a province but also has a spillover effect on the economic growth of the surrounding provinces.

Abstrak :
After the severe fall of oil price in 1986, Indonesia has consistently maintained structural adjustment policy which has successfully shift it dependence from the oil sector to the non-oil sector. This alteration was absolutely necessary due to the fact that Indonesian economic performance could never rely anymore on oil revenue, which also meant reducing the goverment role in driving the economic growth. In order to achive that goal, several macroeconomic policies such as deregulations have been conducted to give private sector more space and a bigger role in the economy. The bigger role for the private sector, the more market mechanism will take place in controlling the equilbrium process. Yet another problem raised, particularly in the regional point of view, that private sector always seek profit opportunity in areas which have large marginal revenue of product. This condition is significantly taking place in Indonesia with the Western part of Indonesia playing as an ace for private investors. This regional imbalance between the Western and Eastern part of Indonesia has not also been creating resources accumulation in the Western part but also dragging resources out from the Eastern part. This condition will eventually restrain overall economic maximization since the Eastern part: production and consumption possibility are non-optimized. This study will analyze the impact of the incerase in development expenditure ,especially infrastructure, on Eastern part's economic dynamic : growth, private investment and strucutral transformation, using a regional macroeconometric model. Other objective is to compare those dynamics under several development scenarios : growth centre scenario and underdevelopment areas scenario. Regional economic consideration has been taken place since we finally realized the fact that national oriented macroeconomic policy often fails to create the desired performance. The nobility of top down approach is faced with the prevailing facts that different regional characteristics, which used to be taken for granted, caused each region acts differently or even oppositely from what is expected to be. According to this issue, this study also addresses its analysis in comparing results from top down to bottom up policy excercise in developing Eastern part of Indonesia's economy.

Abstrak :
Perkembangan wilayah perkotaan di Indonesia merupakan proses dari aglomerasi ekonomi yang sangat besar dan biasanya diawali dari perkembangan meningkatnya skala produksi sektor industrI manufaktur. Aspek lokasi sangat penting dalam tahapan pembangunan ekonomi dari suatu negara. Aspek ruang memiliki dimensi geografis dan lansekap ekonomi (economic landscape) yang menjadi sangat penting dalam kerangka teori ekonomi pembangunan. Aspek ini dapat dianalisis dari ekonomi spasial dengan melihat dampak yang ditimbulkan dari konsenytasi ekonomi dan penduduk melalui proses aglomerasi ekonomi. Dengan menggunakan data panel dari tahun 2000-2012 pada 27 kota besar di Indonesia, maka penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat faktor-faktor penentu dari konsentrasi ekonomi dan penduduk di Indonesia. Penelitian ini juga melakukan analisis pengaruh dari aglomerasi ekonomi di wilayah perkotaan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode estimasi OLS Panel Data untuk model konsentrasi ekonomi dan penduduk, serta GMM untuk model Pertumbuhan Ekonomi yang dipengaruhi oleh aglomerasi perkotaan di Indonesia. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa bentuk aglomerasi yang terjadi pada wilayah perkotaan adalah jenis lokalisasi ekonomi dan berkembang menjadi urbanisasi ekonomi. Kondisi ini didorong oleh variabel PDRB signifikan terhadap produktifitas output sebagai representasi dari konsentrasi ekonomi. Semakin ke wilayah dataran rendah/pinggir pantai maka konsentrrasi ekonomi menjadi lebih tinggi. Variabel tenaga kerja dengan pendidikan tinggi dan produktifitas dari modal juga memiliki hubungan yang positif dengan konsentrasi ekonomi di wilayah perkotaan Indonesia. Konsentrasi penduduk dengan variabel city rank dipengaruhi oleh pendapatan per kapita, jumlah penduduk, kepadatan penduduk dan belanja pemerintah. Semakin ke Pulau Jawa maka konsentrasi penduduk perkotaan di Indonesia akan semakin tinggi. Jadi orang memilih untuk tinggal di kota karena memiliki peluang untuk memperoleh pendapatan yang lebih besar, dibanding wilayah pinggiran. Kota Jakarta tetap menjadi dominasi (super primate city) baik untuk konsentrasi ekonomi maupun penduduk dibannding dengan kota lainnya di Indonesia. Model rank size menunjukkan bahwa penduduk Indonesia sangat terkonsentrasi pada 3 kota utama dengan nilai koefisien paretonya dibawah 0,9. Penduduk sangat terkonsentrasi pada kota utama (urban primacy) yakni Jakarta, Surabaya dan Bandung dimana ketiganya berada di Pulau Jawa. Distribusi ekonomi justru jauh lebih tidak merata dibanding dengan konsentrasi penduduk, karena koefisien pareto nya sebesar 0,2. Variabel aglomerasi perkotaan yakni konsentrasi ekonomi dan penduduk juga memiliki hubungan yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, sehingga kota akan menjadi lebih besar skala ekonominya secara terus menerus. Belanja pemerintah akan mendorong tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi kearah yang lebih tinggi lagi.

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The development of urban areas in Indonesia is a process of agglomeration economies are very large and usually starts from the development of increased production scale manufacturing. Location is very important aspect in the stage of economic development of a country. Aspects of space as a geographic dimension and economic landscape, which became very important in terms of the theory of economic development . This aspect can be analyzed from the spatial economy by looking at the impact of economic and population concentration through the process of agglomeration economies. By using panel data from the years 2000-2012 in 27 major cities in Indonesia , the study aims to look at the determinants of economic concentration and the population in Indonesia . This study was also conducted an analysis of the effects of economic agglomeration in urban areas to the economic growth . This study uses panel data OLS estimates for the concentration of economic and population models , as well as the GMM for Economic Growth models are affected by urban agglomeration in Indonesia. The results showed that the shape of agglomeration occurs in urban areas is a kind of economic localization and urbanization evolved into the economy. This condition is driven by the GDP variable significantly to productivity output as the representation of economic concentration . The more to the lowlands / beachside then economic concentration becomes higher .Variable workforce with higher education and productivity of capital also have a positive relationship with the concentration of the economy in the region. The more to the lowlands / beachside then konsentrrasi economy becomes higher. Variable workforce with higher education and productivity of capital also have a positive relationship with economic concentration in urban areas of Indonesia. The concentration of residents with city rank variables influenced by income per capita, population , population density and government spending . Getting to the island of Java , the concentration of urban population in Indonesia will be higher. So people choose to live in the city because it has a chance to earn a larger income , compared to a suburb. Jakarta city remains a domination ( super primate city ) for both economic and population concentration than with other cities in Indonesia . The model shows that the rank size of the Indonesian population is highly concentrated in three major cities with pareto coefficient below 0.9 . Residents are concentrated in major cities (urban primacy ) namely Jakarta , Surabaya and Bandung which three are located in Java Economic distribution is far more uneven than the concentration of population , because of its Pareto coefficient of 0.2. Variable urban agglomeration namely economic and population concentration also has a significant relationship to economic growth , so that the city will be greater economies of scale continuously. Government spending will drive economic growth rate towards higher again.