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"ABSTRAKPenelitian bertujuan memperoleh model peramalan harga emas terbaik antara model GARCH dan EWMA. Variabel dependen adalah harga emas Antam sedangkan variabel independen terdiri dari harga emas dunia, IHSG dan JIBOR. Penelitian menggunakan data harian periode Agustus 2010 - September 2012. Variabel independen berpengaruh signifikan terhadap harga emas Antam dan secara simultan diperoleh R-Square sebesar 97,7375%. Model dalam pendekatan pola adalah GARCH (2,1) sedangkan pada pendekatan kausal GARCH (1,1). Nilai MAPE peramalan harga emas Antam bulan Oktober 2012 menggunakan pendekatan kausal sebesar 1,9114%, pendekatan pola 4,4379% dan EWMA 10,618824%. Dengan demikian, dalam penelitian ini model GARCH lebih akurat dibandingkan EWMA.

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ABSTRACTThe study aimed at obtaining the best gold price forecasting model between GARCH and EWMA models. The dependent variable is the price of Antam's gold while the independent variables consist of world gold prices, IHSG and JIBOR. The study uses daily data in August 2010 until September 2012. Independent variables significantly influence the Antam’s gold price and simultaneously acquired R-Square of 97.7375%. Models in the pattern approach is GARCH (2.1) whereas the causal approach GARCH (1,1). MAPE values of ​​Antam's gold price forecasting in October 2012 using the causal approach 1.9114%, the pattern approach 4.4379% and EWMA 10.618824%. Thus, in this study GARCH models are more accurate than EWMA."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui besaran tingkat risiko pada pengolahan dan pemurnian emas di PT Antam (Persero) Pulogadung. Proses pemurnian emas mengalami tiga tahapan proses utama, yakni proses peleburan, klorinasi, dan elektrolisis. Proses ini mempunyai berbagai bahaya dan risiko yang dapat menyebabkan gangguan kesehatan maupun cedera pada pekerja, diantaranya bahaya fisik berupa heat stress, bising, radiasi inframerah, discomfort glare; bahaya kimia berupa fume, gas klor, aqua regia, Natrium tetraborat; bahaya mekanik dan bahaya ergonomi. Penilaian risiko berpedoman pada penilaian risiko oleh William T. Fine. Dari hasil penilaian, risiko paling banyak berupa heat stress dan bising. Sedangkan pada existing risk level, tingkat risiko terbanyak berada pada tingkat acceptable dan tingkat risiko tertinggi adalah substansial pada risiko pengangkutan, kebisingan, terjatuh, terkena leburan dore, dan heat stress. Pada predictive level, hampir semua risiko berada pada tingkat acceptable dimana hanya tiga risiko yang berada pada tingkat substansial, yakni risiko penggunaan gas klor dan aqua regia.

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This study aims to determine the level of risk on the processing gold refining at PT Antam (Persero) Pulogadung. The process has three main stage, smelting, chlorination, and electrolysis. The process has various hazards and risks that may cause health disorder or injuries to workers, including phisical hazards such as heat stress, noise, infrared radiation, and discomfort glare; chemical hazards in form of fume, gas chlorine, aqua regia, and sodium tetraborate; mechanical hazards and ergonomics hazards. Risk assessment based on the risk assessment by William T. Fine.

From the result of the risk assessment, the most hazard is heat stress and noise. While on the existing risk level, the most risk level is acceptable level and the highest level of risk is substansial at risk of lifting and transport, noise, fall, exposed to molten dore, and heat stress. At predictive level, almost all of the risks are at acceptable levels in which only three risks are at substantial level that is using of chlorine gas and aqua regia."