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"ABSTRAKRomer (1993) bahwa terdapat hubungan yang negatif antara keterbukaanperdagangan dengan inflasi. Untuk melihat konsistensi dari hubungan tersebut,nilai exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) yang telah diestimasi diikutsertakansebagai salah satu determinan penting untuk menjelaskan inflasi. Penelitian inimenggunakan data panel kuartalan yang bersifat unbalanced dari 6 (enam) negaraAsia terpilih pada kurun waktu 1994 sampai dengan 2013. Hasil regresi penelitianini menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan yang negatif antara keterbukaanperdagangan dengan inflasi, tetapi hasil ini menjadi tidak signifikan ketika ERPTdimasukkan ke dalam persamaan regresi yang sama dengan keterbukaanperdagangan. Sementara itu, nilai ERPT selalu bersifat positif dan signifikandalam menjelaskan inflasi di setiap model regresi yang digunakan. Hasil empirisini membuktikan bahwa hipotesis Romer ditolak di negara-negara Asia danpergerakan nilai tukar terhadap harga impor bersifat penting untuk menjelaskankenaikan inflasi pada kawasan ini.

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ABSTRACTThis research tests the hypothesis first cited by Romer (1993) that there exists anegative relationship between trade openness and inflation. To verify theconsistency of the relationship sign, estimated values of exchange rate passthrough(ERPT) to import prices are taken into account as an importantdeterminant of inflation. This research examines the answer by employingunbalanced quarterly panel data in 6 (six) selected Asian countries under theperiod of 1994 to 2013. The result indicates that there exists a negativerelationship between trade openness and inflation; however, it becomes notsignificant when ERPT values are included in the same regression equation withtrade openness. On the other hand, ERPT is always positive and significant toexplain inflation in every regression model employed. The empirical resultconfirms the rejection of Romer?s hypothesis in Asian countries and thereforehighlights the importance of exchange rate movements towards import prices as afactor that brings inflationary effect within this region."

"The impacts of exchange rate to an economy both domestically and internationally are an interesting discussion. One of the examples for discussion is exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). ERPT is defined as the rate of change of prices (domestic, imported or exported) as a result of change in exchange rate. Consumer price index (CPI) is one of the most frequent indicators used for measuring domestic price. This paper analyzes the impacts of exchange rate change (ERPT) to seven group of CPI in Indonesia. The Cholesky Decomposition is employed to identify structural shock of Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) which then combined with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for 48 time series units. The result shows that for the entire period there is an incomplete pass-through for the seven group of CPI. The largest effect occurs in the transportation and communication sector and food and beverages sector in which 35 percent of their changes in CPI are affected by change in exchange rate."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meneliti tingkat Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) pada negara-negara high income dan upper-middle income yang menerapkan kebijakan Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF). Data histori menunjukkan keanehan pergerakan tingkat inflasi selama 3 tahun terakhir. Tren inflasi pada negara pendahulu yang menerapkan kebijakan penargetan inflasi memiliki peningkatan inflasi signifikan pada periode 2020 – 2022 dan diikuti dengan tidak efektifnya kebijakan Inflation Targeting Framework. Dengan menggunakan model Vector Autoregression untuk data panel, penelitian ini mencoba mengkaitkan antara tingkat Exchange Rate Pass-Through dan tingginya tingkat inflasi. Mengingat Exchange Rate Pass- Through yang rendah menandakan bahwa perubahan nilai tukar terhadap harga impor bersifat inelastis yang memungkinkan pengurangan dampak fluktuasi nilai tukar pada inflasi domestik. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa terjadi penguatan dampak Exchange Rate Pass-Through pada periode sebelum dan saat abnormalitas. Perbedaan karakteristik ERPT dari kelompok negara high income dan upper-middle income membuat tantangan tersendiri dalam menghadapi fluktuasi nilai tukar. Selain itu juga, penelitian ini menemukan jalur transmisi dari penguatan dampak Exchange Rate Pass-Through pada harga impor menuju tingginya inflasi domestik terutama pada kelompok negara high income.

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This study aims to investigate the level of Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) in high- income and upper-middle-income countries that implement the Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) policy. Historical data indicates abnormality in inflation movements over the past three years. The inflation trend in pioneering countries that have adopted inflation targeting policies shows a significant increase in inflation during the period 2020 – 2022, followed by the ineffectiveness of the Inflation Targeting Framework. Utilizing a Vector Autoregression model for panel data, this research attempts to establish a link between the level of Exchange Rate Pass- Through and high inflation rates. Considering that a low Exchange Rate Pass-Through signifies that exchange rate changes against import prices are inelastic, this can potentially mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on domestic inflation. The study concludes that there has been a strengthening of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through effect in the periods before and during abnormalities. The differing characteristics of ERPT between high-income and upper-middle- income countries present unique challenges in managing exchange rate fluctuations. Furthermore, the study identifies a transmission path from the strengthening impact of Exchange Rate Pass-Through on import prices to high domestic inflation, particularly in high-income countries."