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"Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengeksplorasi kointegrasi dan interdependensi dari yield obligasi pemerintah 10 tahun pada negara-negara ASEAN 4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina dan Thailand), India, dan Cina dengan yield obligasi pemerintah AS, Jerman, dan Jepang. Penelitian ini mengaplikasikan model estimasi Vector Autoregression (VAR), Impulse Response Function (IRF), Variance Decomposition (VD) dan Granger Causality Test untuk mengobservasi hubungan dua arah antara variabel-variabel penelitian, dan menggunakan data mingguan dari yield obligasi pemerintah 10 tahun dari setiap negara selama periode penelitian Jan 2007 – Des 2022.Hubungan jangka panjang di estimasi dengan Johansen Cointegration Test. Hasil dari analisis menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat kointegrasi antara yield obligasi pemerintah 10 tahun untuk negara-negara ASEAN 4, India, dan Cina dengan yield obligasi pemerintah AS, Jerman, dan Jepang. Sementara hubungan jangka pendek di estimasi dengan model VAR. Uji kausalitas dengan Granger Causality menunjukkan pola hubungan satu arah antara negara-negara maju terhadap negara-negara berkembang. Melalui uji IRF dan VD dapat dilihat pengaruh yield obligasi negara AS yang cukup kuat terhadap negara-negara berkembang. Temuan pada penelitian ini diharapkan memperkaya penelitian yang fokus dalam meneliti hubungan antar negara, secara khusus penelitian yang berkonsentrasi pada obligasi pemerintah jangka panjang pada negara-ASEAN dan negara maju. Dan memberikan wawasan untuk strategi investasi bagi investor, serta bagi pemerintah dalam penentuan nilai kupon yield sebagai bagian dari kebijakan strategis.

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The purpose of the study is to explore cointegration and interdependency of 10 years government bond yield of ASEAN 4 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), India, and China with global government bond yield of USA, Germany, and Japan. The research applied estimating model of Vector Autoregression (VAR), Impulse Response Function (IRF), Variance Decomposition (VD) and Granger Causality Test to observe two-way relationship between variables and employed weekly data of 10 years government bond current yield of each country during period of Jan 2007 – Dec 2022.

Long-run relationship is assessed with Johansen Cointegration test. The outcome showed that there are no cointegration (long-run relationship) between 10 years government bond yield for ASEAN 4 countries, India, and China with global government bond yield of USA, Germany, and Japan. Short-run relationship estimated with VAR model. Causality test utilizing Granger Causality portrays one way relationship pattern from developed countries to emerging countries. And trough IRF and VD test strong influence of US bond yield toward emerging market countries is discovered.

The finding on this study enriched research that focused on observing relationship between countries, especially research that concentrated on long term government bond for ASEAN countries and developed countries. And the research unlocked insights for investor on their investment strategy as well as for regulator in determining yield coupon as part of strategic policy."

"ABSTRACTFor more than a decade, Indonesia has been practicing decentralization. During this period, local governments still experience difficulties in generating local revenues to fund their development. Local government bonds (LGBs) are actually one of the finest sources for financing local development. However until now there is no real practice in issuing local bonds in Indonesia though it is allowed in the existing regulation.There are still many considerations which hindered the realisation of LGB issuance ranging from the rule of mechanism to the local governments readiness themselves. To gain more insights about the issue, learning from another country (in Japan) on how they manage LGBs effectively and securely will be beneficial. Comparison model between the two countries is chosen to see the regulation and managerial aspects in LGB implementation including the main institution in central level, rules of the game, buyers and purposes. By having this comparison, it is expected that some crucial factors can be looked at, which may then provide us some information on why LGBs are yet to bloom in Indonesia. Moreover, the comparison is expected to provide some basis about the possibility to ease policy adoption for Indonesia in managing LGBs."

"ABSTRAKBisnis wealth management Indonesia saat ini dalam pertumbuhan positif seiring dengan jumlah jumlah High Network Individual HNWI yang selalu meningkat dalam 5 tahun terakhir. Turunnya suku bunga dan melemahnya mata uang rupiah menjadikan produk investasi sebagai salah satu pilihan bagi nasabah untuk menempatkan dananya. Hal ini terjadi di setiap industri perbankan, terutama bagi perusahaan bank milik negara. Adanya persaingan yang tinggi di pasar juga menyebabkan setiap bank untuk mendorong target pendapatan bagi bisnis wealth management, terutama pada penjualan reksadana dan surat berharga negara. Oleh karena itu, dalam penelitian ini peneliti akan menggambarkan bagaimana sebuah bank milik negara menghadapi tantangan yang tidak logis dari manajemen untuk memenangkan persaingan, dengan fokus penelitian pada Bank XYZ. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menemukan beberapa alternatif strategi bagi perusahaan dalam rangka meningkatkan pendapatan dari reksadana dan surat berharga pemerintah. Peneliti menggunakan metode studi kasus yang membahas situasi sebenarnya dari bisnis perusahaan. Data yang digunakan oleh penulis berasal dari

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ABSTRACT Indonesia wealth management business is currently in positive growth along with the number of Indonesia rsquo s High Network Individual HNWI that always increase in the last 5 years. The decline of interest rates and the weakening of rupiah currency make investment products as another option for customers to place the funds. This situation has been taking management rsquo s attention as a growing business in most of Indonesia banking industry, especially for state owned bank companies. Due to high competition in market, each bank should push the revenue target for wealth management business, especially on mutual funds and government securities sales. Therefore, in this study the researcher will describe how state owned bank companies faced the illogical challenge from management to win the competition, focusing on Bank XYZ. This study aims to find several alternative strategies for company in purpose to achieve targets with the focus on how to boost mutual fund and government securities revenue.The researcher used a case study method that discusses the real situation of the company 39 s business. The data used by the researcher comes from interviews result and data obtained directly from the company."

"Meskipun literatur yang memelajari kemampuan yield curve dalam memprediksi aktivitas perekonomian telah cukup banyak, sebagian besar literatur tersebut difokuskan pada data dari negara maju. Dengan demikian, bukti hubungan tersebut di negara-negara berkembang masih cukup langka. Studi ini menyelidiki apakah kurva yield curve memiliki kemampuan untuk memprediksi aktivitas ekonomi masa depan di negara-negara ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina, Singapura, dan Thailand) melalui penggunaan time-series OLS model. Studi ini menggunakan regresi bivariat sederhana anatara yield spread dan aktivitas ekonomi masa depan dan regresi multivariat yang menambahkan variabel moneter dan keuangan untuk menguji robustness dari hubungan tersebut. Secara keseluruhan, studi ini menunjukkan bahwa meskipun pasar obligasi di negara ASEAN-5 memiliki berbagai keterbatasan, yield spread terbukti memiliki kemampuan prediksi di negara-negara ASEAN-5 selain Filipina. Namun, kemampuan prediksi sebagian besar terbukti signifikan untuk time horizon yang lebih lama yang menyiratkan bahwa ada jeda waktu dalam hubungan antara yield curve dan aktivitas ekonomi.

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Despite the vast amount of literature that has examined the predictive ability of the yield curve on future economic activity, most of the literature are focused on the data for developed economies and thus, evidence of such relationship in developing countries is quite scarce. This study investigates whether the yield curve possess a predictive ability on future economic activity in the ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippine, Singapore, and Thailand) through the use of a time-series OLS model. We employ a straightforward bivariate regression between the yield spread and future economic activity and a multivariate regression that includes additional financial and monetary variable to test the robustness of the relationship. Overall, the result of our analysis shows that despite the various limitations in the ASEAN-5 bond market, the yield spread is proven to possess predictive ability in ASEAN-5 countries with the exception of Philippine. However, the predictive ability is mostly shown to be significant for the longer time horizon which implies that there's a time lag in the relationship between the yield spread and economic activity."

"ABSTRAKPerkembangan pasar obligasi di Indonesia sekarang ini cukup pesat, dibuktikan dengan pertumbuhan jumlah penerbitan obligasi di Indonesia tiap tahunnya. Obligasi Pemerintah Republik Indonesia memiliki pertumbuhan yang jauh lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan obligasi korporasi di Indonesia. Dengan besarnya jumlah penerbitan Surat Utang Negara diharapkan investor asing semakin untuk berinvestasi di Indonesia. Sehubungan dengan hal tersebut, likuiditas atas surat utang negara Indonesia harus diperhatikan. Dengan semakin banyaknya pihak asing yang tertarik membeli SUN diharapkan cenderung dapat meningkatkan likuiditas dari SUN. Dalam penelitian ini diteliti pengaruh antara arus transaksi yang dilakukan oleh pihak asing terhadap likuiditas SUN Fixed Rate SUN FR dan didapatkan hasil bahwa semakin besarnya transaksi beli yang dilakukan oleh asing akan semakin meningkatkan likuiditas SUN FR.

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ABSTRACTThe development of the bond market in Indonesia is now quite rapid, evidenced by the growth of number of bonds issuance in Indonesia each year. Government Bonds Republic of Indonesia growth higher than corporate bonds in Indonesia. With the large number of issuance of Government Securities, expected foreign investors increase to invest in Indonesia. In relation thereto, liquidity of Indonesian Government Bonds must be considered. With the increasing number of foreign investors to buying the Indonesian Government Bonds is expected to tend to increase the liquidity of government securities. In this research examined the effect between the flow of transactions conducted by foreign parties to the liquidity of SUN Fixed Rate SUN FR and obtained the result that the greater transactions conducted by foreign investors will further increase the liquidity of SUN FR. "

"ABSTRAKJumlah kepemilikan asing di pasar modal Indonesia cukup dominan. Laporan OJK mencatat pergerakan nilai tukar USD/IDR, kinerja indeks harga saham gabungan IHSG dan indeks yield Obligasi Indonesia cenderung mengikuti pergerakan arus modal asing. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Vector Autoregression untuk mengolah data time series periode 2011-2017 dan melihat hubungan antara arus modal asing, nilai tukar USD/IDR, return IHSG, yield obligasi pemerintah 10 tahun. Dari hasil uji estimasi var yang mencakup granger causality, impulse respon function, variance decomposition ditemukan bahwa variabel nilai tukar USD/IDR yang memegang peran penting dalam mempengaruhi pergerakan variabel penelitian lainnya. Temuan lainnya adalah perbedaan sifat investor asing dalam menghadapi pergerakan return IHSG dan yield obligasi pada pasarnya masing-masing. Dimana investor asing cenderung melepaskan portfolio Indonesia netsell ketika ada kenaikan yield, namun cenderung membeli portfolio Indonesia netbuy ketika return IHSG naik.

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ABSTRACT The amount of foreign ownership in Indonesian capital market is quite dominant. The OJK report notes the USD IDR exchange rate movement, the performance of the composite stock price index IHSG and the Indonesian bond yield index tend to follow the movement of foreign capital flows. This research uses Vector Autoregression method to process time series data from 2011 2017 period and see the relationship between foreign capital flows, USD IDR exchange rate, IHSG return, 10 year government bond yield. From the result of var estimation test which includes granger causality, impulse response function, variance decomposition, it is found that USD IDR exchange rate variable that plays an important role in influencing the movement of other research variables. Foreign flow, however, didn rsquo t give a significant impact. Other findings are similarity in the nature of foreign investors in the face of JCI return movement and bond yields on their respective markets. Where foreign investors tend to release the Indonesian portfolio netsell when there is a decrease in bonds yield increase or stock return increase price, but tend to buy Indonesian portfolio netbuy when it rises."