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Abstrak :
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat dampak kebijakan anti dumping terhadap volume impor baja di Indonesia. Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Ordinary Least Square OLS dengan model efek tetap menggunakan sampel unbalanced data panel transaksi impor dari 56 negara yang terdiri dari negara-negara yang dikenakan BMAD atas impor baja kode HS tertentu named countries dan negara-negara yuang tidak dikenakan BMAD atas impor baja non-named countries periode tahun transaksi 2007-2015. Dengan obyek negara Indonesia yang memiliki karakteristik berbeda dengan negara-negara maju objek penelitian terdahulu seperti di di Amerika Serikat, Uni Eropa, Jepang dan negara maju lainnya., penelitian ini mengkonfirmasi adanya dampak trade reduction dan trade diversion sebagai dampak kebijakan BMAD baja di Indonesia. Hasil empiris penelitian ini menemukan adanya trade reduction pada volume impor baja dari named countries namun tidak membuktikan adanya trade diversion volume impor baja dari non-named countries.

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This research aims to look at the impact of anti dumping policies against steel imports volume in Indonesia. Research methods used in this research is the Ordinary Least Square OLS with a fixed effects model using a sample of unbalanced data panel the transaction import from 56 countries comprising the countries that imposed upon the imported steel BMAD HS code a specific named countries and yuang countries not subject to import steel top BMAD non named countries period in the transaction 2007 2015. With Indonesia State objects that have different characteristics with developed countries such as those in the earlier study objects in the United States, European Union, Japan and other developed countries, this research confirms impact of trade reduction and trade diversion as the impact of policy on steel BMAD Indonesia. The results of empirical research is finding the existence of trade reduction in the volume of steel imports from the named countries but does not prove the existence of trade diversion of steel import volumes from non named countries.

Abstrak :
Studi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis efek trade creation dan trade diversion dari penerapan AIFTA pada ekspor dan impor Indonesia menggunakan data agregat dan disagregat yang terdiri dari 6 komoditas. Sampel penelitian terdiri dari 25 negara pada periode 2006-2017. Metode estimasi menggunakan Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). Hasil estimasi menunjukkan penerapan AIFTA menimbulkan efek negatif export trade diversion yang signifikan. Pada data disagregat, net trade creation terdapat pada komoditas food-drinks-tobacco and live animals, energy products dan raw materials. Selain itu, net trade diversion terdapat pada komoditas other manufactured goods dan machinery and transport equipment ......This research aims to analyzes the effects of trade creation and trade diversion of the AIFTA implementation on export and import of Indonesia using agregate and disagregate data consists of 6 commodites. This study’s sample consists of 25 countries from 2006-2017. Estimation method using Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). The result indicate that there are significant evidence for the export trade diversion. Using disaggregated data, net trade creation effect is found in food-drinks-tobacco and live animals, energy products, and raw materials commodity. Meanwhile, net trade diversion effect is found in other manufactured goods and machinery and transport equipment commodity.

Abstrak :
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa efek trade creation dan trade diversion dari implementasi ACFTA terhadap perdagangan bilateral ekspor dan impor produk industri kreatif fesyen dan kerajinan di Indonesia dengan 15 negara mitra dagang yang termasuk anggota ACFTA dan non-anggota ACFTA selama periode tahun 2000-2013. Penelitian ini diestimasi menggunakan model gravity yang dimodifikasi dengan menambahkan variabel dummy FTA sebagai proxi dari dampak implementasi ACFTA yaitu trade creation, export trade diversion dan import trade diversion. Hasil estimasi penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa implementasi ACFTA memberikan efek trade creation, export trade diversion dan import trade diversion yang positif dan signifikan terhadap perdagangan produk industri kreatif fesyen dan kerajinan di Indonesia. Hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa implementasi ACFTA tidak hanya menciptakan efek trade creation dengan meningkatkan perdagangan intra-regional antar anggota ACFTA, tetapi juga dapat menciptakan trade expansion (positive trade diversion) dengan meningkatkan ekspansi perdagangan extra-regional dengan negara non-anggota ACFTA baik dari sisi ekspor dan impor.

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This research aims to analyzes the effects of trade creation dan trade diversion of the ACFTA implementation on the bilateral trade for export and import of creative industries products for fashion and craft in Indonesia with 15 countries of trading partners including member and non-member of ACFTA over the period 2000-2013. This study estimated using gravity model modified with FTA dummy variables as proxi of the impact of ACFTA implementation, namely trade creation, export trade diversion, and import trade diversion. The results show that the effects of trade creation, export trade diversion and import trade diversion are significant and positive on the trade of creative industries products for fashion and craft in Indonesia. It indicates that ACFTA implementation not only increasing trade creation of intra-regional trade among member countries, but also increasing trade expansion (positive trade diversion) of extra-regional trade with non-member countries in terms of export and import.

Abstrak :
Keikutsertaan dalam perdagangan bebas memberikan dampak yang beragam bagi negara anggota. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa efek trade creation dan trade diversion dari implementasi ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Agreement AKFTA pada lima 5 kategori produk manufaktur di Indonesia dengan 20 negara mitra dagang yang termasuk anggota dan non-anggota AKFTA periode 1990-2015. Metode estimasi menggunakan model gravity yang dimodifikasi dengan menambahkan variabel dummy FTA sebagai proxi dari dampak implementasi AKFTA dengan variasi model fixed effects. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya efek trade creation dan trade diversion dimana pada sisi impor menunjukkan efek yang hampir sama pada kelima klasifikasi produk, sedangkan sisi ekspor efeknya bervariasi untuk masing-masing klasifikasi produk. ...... The impact of a free trade agreement FTA establishment is different for each country involved. This paper highlights the effect of ASEAN Korea Free Trade Agreement AKFTA on Indonesian manufacturing products which devided into five categories of manufacturing goods. By using a panel data with augmented gravity model and fixed effects approach, this paper investigates evidence of trade creation and trade diversion effects of Indonesia with 20 trading partner countries, covering a 26 year period dating from 1990 2015. The results identified the presence of both trade creation and diversion effects. While the results on import side almost similar for five products classification, the results on export side vary among categories.

Abstrak :
ABSTRACT
Along with an attempt to promote the export performance of manufacturing goods, the number of investigation about the potential benefit or harm of free trade agreements is still weak in Indonesia. This paper highlights the effect of ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Agreement (AKFTA) on Indonesian export of manufacturing products since AKFTA as one of the significant initiatives in Southeast Asia is expected to boost Indonesian export. By using augmented gravity models with panel data, this paper investigates the presence of trade creation and trade diversion effects on Indonesian export with 20 trading partners, covering a 26-year period from 1990-2015. Fixed effects with least square dummy variable (LSDV) models are applied to tackle the endogeneity problems of FTA by controlling the unobserved heterogeneity. The results showed that trade diversion outweighs trade creation effects in almost all categories, confirming a decrease in export from member to non-member countries.

Abstrak :
Dengan sering diberlakukannya tindakan anti-dumping (AD) yang dilakukan oleh Indonesia terhadap negara-negara yang melakukan dumping selama dua dekade terakhir, penting untuk memeriksa dampak apa yang telah dihasilkan oleh kebijakan ini terhadap impor dari negara-negara tersebut. Secara empiris, penelitian ini menguji pengaruh langkah-langkah AD terhadap impor Indonesia menggunakan data UN Comtrade pada tingkat produk kode HS 6 digit. Bukti yang disajikan dalam makalah ini menunjukkan bahwa AD memang memiliki pengaruh pembatasan yang signifikan terhadap impor dari negara-negara yang dikenakan bea masuk AD. Langkah-langkah AD berhasil mengurangi nilai impor produk yang bersangkutan sekitar 126% selama periode pengenaan. Selain itu, tidak ada bukti efek pengalihan perdagangan ke negara-negara yang tidak dikenakan bea masuk AD. Selama tiga tahun pertama kebijakan AD, nilai impor ke negara-negara yang tidak dikenakan bea masuk AD menurun sekitar 53%. Oleh karena itu disimpulkan bahwa kebijakan AD Indonesia telah membantu menekan impor yang tidak diinginkan dan karenanya memenuhi syarat sebagai efektif. Model empiris studi ini diestimasi menggunakan penduga sistem GMM. ......With the frequent imposition of anti-dumping (AD) actions carried out by Indonesia over the past two decades, it is necessary to examine what impact these measures have had on the countrys imports. Empirically, this study examines the effect of AD measures on Indonesian imports using UN Comtrade data at the 6-digit HS codes product level. The evidence presented in this paper shows that AD does have a significant restriction effect on imports from named countries. AD measures succeeded in reducing the import value of the products concerned by about 126% during the period of imposition. In addition, there is no evidence of trade diversion effects to non-named countries. During the first three years of AD measures, the value of imports to non-named countries decreased by around 53%. It is therefore concluded that Indonesias AD policy has helped to check unwanted imports and therefore may qualify as effective. The empirical model of the study is estimated using the system GMM estimator.

Abstrak :
Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi dampak implementasi ACFTA, AKFTA, dan AJFTA terhadap perdagangan internasional di sektor elektronik antara ASEAN dan mitra dagangnya. Pendekatan yang digunakan didasarkan pada konsep trade creation & trade diversion oleh Jacob Viner. Kami menggunakan data ekspor sektor elektronik dalam tingkat HS Level 6 yang mencakup 264 produk. Data ekspor yang kami gunakan berasal dari 28 negara dalam rentang waktu 2003 hingga 2020. Untuk estimasi, kami menggunakan metode PPML yang dilengkapi dengan beberapa effects seperti time-effect, country-effect, dan country-time effect Kami menemukan bahwa AJFTA, AKFTA, dan ACFTA menghasilkan trade creation dalam ekspor ke sesama anggota FTA. Kami juga menemukan bahwa implementasi ketiga FTA juga menurunkan ekspor ke non member meski tidak signifikan. Kami juga mendapati adanya trade deflection dalam aktivitas ekspor dari nonanggota ke anggota FTA. Hasil ini dapat diatribusikan kepada jaringan produksi yang ekstensif antara ASEAN dan ketiga negara tersebut. Selain itu, implementasi FTA juga memperluas akses pasar untuk input di Asia.. Secara agregat, kita dapat menyimpulkan bahwa terdapat fenomena trade creation dalam sektor elektronik di ASEAN dan ketiga negara tersebut (Jepang, Korea, dan China). ......This study aims to evaluate the impact of the implementation of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA), ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Agreement (AKFTA), and ASEAN-Japan Free Trade Agreement (AJFTA) on international trade in the electronics sector between ASEAN and its trading partners. The approach used is based on the concept of trade creation and trade diversion proposed by Jacob Viner. We utilized export data from the electronics sector at the HS Level 6, covering 264 products. The export data used in this study is sourced from 28 countries over the period from 2003 to 2020. For estimation, we employed the PPML (Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood) method, considering several effects such as time-effect, country-effect, and country-time effect. The findings reveal that AJFTA, AKFTA, and ACFTA resulted in trade creation in exports among FTA member countries. We also found that the implementation of these three FTAs led to a decrease in exports to non-member countries, although the impact was not significant. Furthermore, we observed trade deflection in export activities from non-member countries to FTA member countries. This outcome can be attributed to the extensive production networks between ASEAN and the three partner countries (Japan, Korea, and China). Additionally, the FTA implementation expanded market access for inputs in Asia. In aggregate, we can conclude that there is a trade creation phenomenon in the electronics sector within ASEAN and these three partner countries (Japan, Korea, and China)."

Abstrak :
This thesis uses general equilibrium model to examine the economic impact of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) on Indonesia. The analysis covers how price and quantity change in response to tariff liberalization under ACFTA framework. Demand and supply elasticity is needed to calculate welfare effects. Difference-in-differences method is applied to estimate demand elasticity while supply elasticity is calculated through Instrumental Variable (IV) regressions using tariff as an instrument. The results show that Indonesia's demand is elastic enough and supply to Indonesia is fairly elastic. Indonesia consumers are willing to substitute products between different sources due to price changes. ACFTA would increase production quantity for all member countries but had insignificant effect on reducing price of goods. Furthermore, I confirm result from existing literature that trade creation effect is dominated than trade diversion effect.