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Abstrak :
ABSTRAK
Penelitian ini menganalisis spillover kebijakan QE Amerika Serikat terhadap aliran modal asing di Indonesia. Transmisi spillover QE melalui jalur likuiditas dan signaling masing-masing diukur menggunakan variabel 3-month T-bill rate AS serta VIX. Transmisi melalui jalur portfolio balance dikukur menggunakan variabel perbedaan suku bunga Indonesia dan AS, perbedaan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dan AS, serta spread credit default swap CDS Indonesia juga. Metode estimasi menggunakan teknik VECM. Ditemukan bahwa transmisi spillover QE terutama melalui jalur likuiditas dan signalling. Selain itu spread CDS juga signifikan mempengaruhi aliran modal asing. Jalur portfolio balance maupun perbedaan tingkat pertumbuhan PDB mempengaruhi investasi asing langsung.

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ABSTRACT
This study analyses the spillover of USA rsquo s QE policy towards capital flows in Indonesia. The spillover is estimated through the liquidity and signaling channels, respectively observed using the variables 3 month T bill rate and VIX. The spillover through the portfolio balance is observed using the variables of interest rate and growth rate differentials, as well as Indonesia rsquo s CDS spread. Estimation method used is VECM. The study finds that QE rsquo s spillover transmission to Indonesia goes through the liquidity and signaling channels. CDS spread also affects capital flow. The portfolio balance channel as well as the growth rate differential affect FDI.

Abstrak :
Industri pertambangan batubara adalah jenis industri yang membutuhkan modal besar dan memiliki risiko tinggi, sehingga penting untuk memperhatikan keberlangsungan pengusahaan sektor ini terutama dalam sarana permodalan usaha. Salah satu cara mendapatkan permodalan bagi keberlangsungan perusahaan tambang batu bara adalah melalui pasar modal. Minat investor untuk menanamkan modalnya di sektor tambang batu bara sangat ditentukan naik turunya harga saham sektor tambang batu bara. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh harga batubara terhadap harga saham sektor pertambangan batubara. Dengan menggunakan data sekunder runtun waktu dari periode Januari 2012 hingga Desember 2022 dan menerapkan metode Vector Error Correction Model (VECM),  penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa harga batubara berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap Harga Saham Sektor Pertambangan Batubara di Indonesia.  Lebih lanjut, penelitian ini juga menunjukkan bahwa pengaruh harga batubara memberikan kontribusi terbesar terhadap Harga Saham Sektor Pertambangan Batubara yaitu sebesar 27,56%. Sementara kontribusi pengaruh suku bunga, kurs, dan inflasi terhadap harga saham masing-masing adalah sebesar 22,09%, 21,65%, dan 17,97%. ......Coal mining is a type of industry that requires huge capital and carries high risks, so it is essential to pay attention to the sustainability of this sector, particularly the business capital. One way to obtain funding capital for the sustainability of coal mining companies is through the capital market. The ups and downs of stock prices determine the interest of investors in the coal mining sector. This study aims to analyze the effect of coal prices on stock prices in this sector. By using secondary data from January 2012 until December 2022 and applying the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method, this study shows that coal price has a significant positive correlation to stock prices for the coal mining sector in Indonesia. Furthermore, this study also shows that the effect of coal prices makes the largest contribution to the stock price of the coal mining sector, which is equal to 27.56%. Meanwhile, the contributions of interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation on stock prices were 22.09%, 21.65%, and 17.97%, respectively.

Abstrak :
Penelitian ini menganalisis hubungan antara konsumsi listrik dan pertumbuhan ekonomi pada level yang lebih disagregat yaitu pada sektor industri, bisnis dan rumah tangga. Selain itu penelitian ini juga memasukkan determinan ketiga yang diduga juga penting pengaruhnya ke pertumbuhan ekonomi dan konsumsi listrik yaitu tarif listrik. Lewat pemodelan VECM, ditemukan hubungan kausalitas searah dari konsumsi listrik ke pertumbuhan ekonomi di tingkat nasional. Sehingga Indonesia harus menambah pasokan listrinya untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Selain itu pengalihan subsidi listrik dan ke infrastruktur juga dapat meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. ......This research analyzes relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth which disaggregated into three levels: industry, business and household sector. This research also aims to analyze the third determinant which is fathomed having important role to those two variables. Through VECM modeling, it is found that one-way direction causality goes from electricity consumption to economic growth. Thus Indonesia needs to increase its electricity supply to maintain its economic growth. Besides that, the transformation of electricity subsidies into infrastructure also increases the economic growth.

Abstrak :
[ABSTRAK
Perdagangan Internasional memegang peranan penting terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Presiden Republik Indonesia melalui program Nawa Cita memiliki proyeksi pertumbuhan ekspor yang signifikan selama periode 2015-2019. Salah satu faktor pendukung dari keberhasilan pencapaian target ekspor Indonesia adalah aspek logistik yang terjadi pada pasar perdagangan Internasional. Ekspektasi pertumbuhan ekspor Indonesia pada masa yang akan datang dirasakan cukup berat mengingat tren total ekspor Indonesia cenderung turun selama empat tahun terakhir ditambah performa indikator logistik Indonesia yang dirasakan belum maksimal. Mengingat terjadinya penurunan ekspor Indonesia selama beberapa tahun terakhir, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi ekspor di Indonesia serta pengaruh logistik terhadap ekspor dengan mempertimbangkan strategic improvement yang dapat dilakukan untuk mencapai target pertumbuhan ekspor. Penelitian dengan metode Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) mendapatkan hasil bahwa pada jangka pendek variabel investasi asing (FDI) dan variabel ekspor sendiri pada lag sebelumnya berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ekspor, sedangkan pada jangka panjang variabel investasi domestik (PMDN), logistik (PDBT), dan nilai tukar berpengaruh signifikan yang positif terhadap ekspor. Performa logistik harus ditingkatkan dalam upaya mencapai target pertumbuhan ekspor Indonesia pada periode 2015-2019.

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ABSTRACT
International trade sector holds imperative role toward Economy of Indonesia. President of Republic of Indonesia through Nawa Cita agenda has significant export projection growth between periode of 2015-2019. One of key success factors to achieve such massive target is logistical aspect concurring within international trade circumstances. Future export?s expectation growth seems to be hard to be achieved in accordance with recent export performances which were slightly decreasing in previous years. This research is aimed to analyze certain factors which possibly affect the declining trend value of Indonesia?s export, also to scrutinizely analyze the impact of logistic toward export so that strategical improvement can be conducted in order to notch export?s target set in period of 2015-2019. This research used Vector Error Correction Model, with the result of several factors affecting export value of Indonesia. In the short term, Foreign Direct Investment and export itself in previous lag were giving impact significantly towards export value. Meanwhile in longer term, domestic investment, logistic, and exchange rate were significantly affecting export?s value positively. Logistic performances need to be enhanced in order to forge and notch the export value?s target within period of 2015-2019;International trade sector holds imperative role toward Economy of Indonesia. President of Republic of Indonesia through Nawa Cita agenda has significant export projection growth between periode of 2015-2019. One of key success factors to achieve such massive target is logistical aspect concurring within international trade circumstances. Future export?s expectation growth seems to be hard to be achieved in accordance with recent export performances which were slightly decreasing in previous years. This research is aimed to analyze certain factors which possibly affect the declining trend value of Indonesia?s export, also to scrutinizely analyze the impact of logistic toward export so that strategical improvement can be conducted in order to notch export?s target set in period of 2015-2019. This research used Vector Error Correction Model, with the result of several factors affecting export value of Indonesia. In the short term, Foreign Direct Investment and export itself in previous lag were giving impact significantly towards export value. Meanwhile in longer term, domestic investment, logistic, and exchange rate were significantly affecting export?s value positively. Logistic performances need to be enhanced in order to forge and notch the export value?s target within period of 2015-2019, International trade sector holds imperative role toward Economy of Indonesia. President of Republic of Indonesia through Nawa Cita agenda has significant export projection growth between periode of 2015-2019. One of key success factors to achieve such massive target is logistical aspect concurring within international trade circumstances. Future export’s expectation growth seems to be hard to be achieved in accordance with recent export performances which were slightly decreasing in previous years. This research is aimed to analyze certain factors which possibly affect the declining trend value of Indonesia’s export, also to scrutinizely analyze the impact of logistic toward export so that strategical improvement can be conducted in order to notch export’s target set in period of 2015-2019. This research used Vector Error Correction Model, with the result of several factors affecting export value of Indonesia. In the short term, Foreign Direct Investment and export itself in previous lag were giving impact significantly towards export value. Meanwhile in longer term, domestic investment, logistic, and exchange rate were significantly affecting export’s value positively. Logistic performances need to be enhanced in order to forge and notch the export value’s target within period of 2015-2019]

Abstrak :
Penelitian bertujuan untuk menganalisis dan mengetahui hubungan, arah hubungan, dan seberapa efektif kontribusi yang diberikan antara instrumen moneter Islam dengan cadangan likuiditas perbankan syariah. Metode yang digunakan adalah metode deskriptif dengan pendekatan kuantitatif. Teknik analisis data yang digunakan adalah metode VAR/VECM. Analisis deskriptif dengan VAR/VECM ini menggambarkan hubungan yang terjadi antara instrumen moneter Islam yaitu SBIS, Fasbis, dan IMA terhadap cadangan likuiditas, dan juga mengetahui arah hubungan serta kontribusi yang diberikan antara instrumen moneter Islam dengan cadangan likuiditas. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa antara variabel SBIS, Fasbis, IMA, dan likuiditas tidak memiliki hubungan dalam jangka panjang melainkan hubungan jangka pendek. Antara SBIS dan Fasbis, serta antara IMA dan SBIS memiliki hubungan dua arah. Sedangkan lainnya hanya memiliki hubungan satu arah saja. Dan kontribusi yang diberikan variabel SBIS dipengaruhi oleh faktor dirinya sendiri sebesar 100%, Fasbis sebesar 98%, IMA sebesar 94.5% dan Cadangan Likuiditas sebesar 41%. ......This study aim to see and analysis how correlation between Islamic monetary instrument to distribution liquidity reseve and its effectiveness contribution of Islamic banking in Indonesia. Method on this study is descriptive with quantitative approach. To get the purpose of this study, the analysis used Vector Auto Regression (VAR)/ Vector Error Correction Method (VECM). Descriptive analysis with VAR/VECM is to describe correlation between Islamic monetary instrument are SBIS, Fasbis, IMA and liquidity reserve. Furthermore, to direction of correlation and contribution between Islamic monetary instrument to liquidity reserve. The result of this study showed that SBIS, Fasbis, IMA and liquidity reseve did not have long-term correlation but short-term correlation. Between SBIS to Fasbis, and IMA to SBIS have two-way correlation. While, another variable have one-way correlation. Contribution made by SBIS, Fasbis, IMA, and liquidity reserve to theirselves respectively 100%, 98%, 94,5%, and 41%.

Abstrak :
The capital consists management of saving and investment (as the proxy of savings and loans), FDI, and DDI and is important production factors. The contribution of management of savings and investment are estimated using panel regression and Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) and also series regression. The results show that management of savings and investment has significant effect on economic growth with the respective negative and positive effects. Moreover, FDI, DDI, Labor by Sector (SMA), and Population Growth also play a significant role on growth with distinctive coefficient describing respective effects for each variable on growth. Furthermore, sector-specific analysis gives very dynamic effects on growth in the case of Indonesia. In order to identify long-run bidirectional relationship between variables, we employ Granger Causality Test using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). As presented in the result and analysis, no variables performing bidirectional relationship in the long-run.

Abstrak :
ABSTRAK Penelitian ini membahas pengaruh peranan sektor keuangan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia periode 2000-2013. Penelitian ini mencoba mencaritahu peranan sektor keuangan, khususnya perbankan dan pasar modal, dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Hasil pengujian secara empiris mengindikasikan bahwa dalam periode 2000 sampai dengan pertengahan 2013 terdapat bi-directional causality antara pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dengan penyaluran kredit perbankan dan kausalitas satu arah antara kapitalisasi saham di pasar modal dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Hasil dari Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) cenderung mendukung teori bahwa sistem keuangan berperan mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia melalui ketersediaan kredit yang memfasilitasi investasi, yang pada gilirannya akan menghasilkan pertumbuhan output riil.

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ABSTRACT This study discusses the Relations of Capital Market Capitalization, Credit Distribution, and Economic Growth in Indonesia from 2000 to 2013. This study tried to find out the role of the financial sector, especially banking and capital markets, to encourage the economic growth in Indonesia. Empirically test results indicate that over the period from 2000 to mid 2013, there are bi-directional causality between economic growth and credit volume, and a one way direction between economic growth and market capitalization in Indonesia. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methodology result seem to give strong support to the hypothesis that financial system can be an engine of economic growth in Indonesia through investment facilitation, which will generate growth in real output.

Abstrak :
This study examines marketing system of rice, emphasizing on horizontal and vertical integration of paddy and rice, both at regional and world market. The study also anlyzes price stabilization pf appady at farm level and rice at consumer level, and examines domestic buffer stocks managed by rice. Econometric metdhos of vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction model (VECM) are emplyed in this study. The results show that marketiung system of rice in Indonesia is very straightforward, involving commodity flow from paddy farmers, collector traders, rice millers, wholesalers, distributors, retail traders, and rice consumers. Rice markets in five major regions in Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Bali Nusa Tenggara showed horizontal market integration during the New Order regime (1968-1997)m albeit not in full integration. Rice markets were segmented during free-trade period (1998-2000), and during a managed-open market period (2001-2004). Vertical integration between paddy and ricve market only occurred during the New Order. Also, during that period, paddy price was relatively more stable than rice price in all three regimes. The study suggests that regulation in rice import should be continued, and policies on production improvmenet, land reform, and food diversification deserve more budget allocation. The government should develop regional price procurement system and strengthen rice buffer stock at regional level.

Abstrak :
The debate on the relationship between economic growth and financial development has been steadily growing in these recent years. However, the existing theoretical and empirical literature provides conflicting views in this respect. This paper proposes an empirical investigation of the nature of this relationship in the Moroccan context. More precisely, it explores the cointegrating and the causality issue between economic growth and financial development. The latter is measured by largely used indicators. In particular, we use capital market proxy, in addition to the traditional indicators of financial intermediation. The findings show that financial development explains significantly the growth, but the direction of causality depends on the indicator used to measure the financial deepening and the time horizon of analysis (short or long terms).

Abstrak :
Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis hubungan keseimbangan antar variable pembangunan ekonomi dan sosial daerah dengan menggunakan metode vector dan error correction model dan menganalisi kointegrasi serta kausalitas antar variabel dengan menggunakan metode cointegration dan causality. Metode yang digunakan ialah Error Correction Model (ECM) dan Vektor Error Correction Model (VECM). Variabel penelitian ini terdiri dari inflasi, Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK), dan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) yang mewakili variabel pembangunan ekonomi serta, variabel pembangunan sosial diwakili oleh Indeks Pembangunan manusia (IPM), Kemiskinan dan Pengangguran. Penelitian ini akan menggunakan uji root dengan menggunakan metode Augmented Dickey Fuller test (ADF-test). Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa terdapat pengaruh yang signifikan antara variabel inflasi dan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) di Provinsi Sumatera Selatan dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Sementara itu, variabel independen lainnya (IHK, IPM, Kemiskinan dan Pengangguran) dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang secara simultan berpengaruh pada PDRB. Terdapat hubungan keseimbangan Antar variable pembangunan ekonomi (PDRB, Inflasi, IHK) dan variabel sosial (IPM, Kemiskinan dan Pengangguran) di Provinsi Sumatera Selatan dengan menggunakan metode vector dan error correction model dan antar variable pembangunan ekonomi dan sosial berkointegrasi dan berkausalitas dengan menggunakan metode cointegration dan causality.