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Abstrak :
This paper analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate and stock market in Jakarta,Singapore,malaysia,Thailand,Philippine and Hongkong using high frequency data.....

Abstrak :
Studi ini menganalisis integrasi pasar saham di beberapa negara di kawasan Asia Pasifik. Penelitian ini berfokus pada pasar saham lima negara, yaitu Jepang, Indonesia, Filipina, vietnam dan Bangladesh, dengan memberi perhatian khusus pada krisis keuangan 2008-2009. Studi ini dilatarbelakangi oleh penelitian mengenai integrasi pasar saham tradisional, yang menunjukkan bahwa pasar saham negara berkembang lebih tersegmentasi dan pasar saham negara maju sangat terintegrasi. Dengan menggunakan metode vector autoregressive (VAR), hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa pasar saham masih kurang terintegrasi. Pada periode sebelum krisis, hanya pasar saham Filipina dan Indonesia yang terintegrasi, sedangkan pasar saham Jepang terintegrasi dengan pasar saham Indonesia, Filipina dan Bangladesh. Sementara itu, pada periode setelah krisis, pasar saham Bangladesh tidak terintegrasi dengan pasar saham Jepang. ......This study analysis the integration of stock markets in some countries in the Asia-Pacific Region. The study focus on stock market in five county, namely: Japan, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam and Bangladesh, with special attention to the 2008-2009 financial crisis period. This study is motivated by the research of traditional stock market integration, which showed that stock markets in developing countries were more segmented while stock markets in developed countries were more integrated. By using vector autoregressive method (VAR), this study reveals that stock markets of those five countries were still less integrated. In the pre-crisis period, only the stock markets of Philippines and Indonesia were integrated, while Japan's stock market was integrated with the stock markets of Indonesia, the Philippines and Bangladesh. Meanwhile, in the period after the crisis, Bangladesh's stock market did not integrated with japan's.

Abstrak :
ABSTRAK This paper evaluates monetary policy transmission in both tranquil and turbulent periods for Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey. Using a structural vector autoregressive model, we find that the effect of structural shocks from supply, demand,and financial sources tend to fizzle out faster for Nigeria and Mexico compared toIndonesia and Turkey. Another important finding is that while monetary authorities in Indonesia and Turkey are more responsive to inflation those in Mexico and Nigeria are more influenced by the exchange rate. We also observe differences in the conduct of monetary policy between the tranquil and turbulent periods.

Abstrak :
Tesis ini bertujuan untuk menguji dan menganalisis hubungan kausalitas dan dinamis antara sentimen investor dan return pasar dengan melibatkan faktor inflasi. Alat ukur pendekatannya adalah mutual fund flow. Metode yang digunakan berbasis kuantitatif dengan analisa deskriptif, dengan menggunakan model Vector Autoregressive, analisa Impulse Response Function dan Variance Decomposition serta analisa Granger Causality. Hasil analisis menunjukkan adanya hubungan antara sentimen investor dengan return pasar, namun dampaknya tidak signifikan. Shock pada variabel dijelaskan paling dominan oleh dirinya sendiri, kecuali shock pada variabel excess return indeks pasar saham merupakan faktor paling dominan yang mempengaruhi fluktuasi yang terjadi pada return indeks pasar obligasi.

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This thesis aims to examine and analyze the causal relationship and the dynamics between investor sentiments and market returns that involving inflation. Mutual funds flow used as the proximity measurement instrument. Methods used are quantitative descriptive analysis, using the model of Vector Autoregressive, analysis of Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition and Granger Causality analysis. The analysis showed an association between investor sentiments and the market returns, but the influence is not significant. Shock on a variable commonly not giving significant impact, except for the variable itself, and the stock market index's excess returns which dominantly influencing bonds index fluctuations.

Abstrak :
Perbedaan utama antara JII dengan IHSG terletak pada screening process yang dilakukan terhadap JII. Beberapa penelitian terdahulu menyimpulkan bahwa JII memiliki risiko dan volatilitas yang lebih rendah dibandingkan indeks harga saham yang beraktivitas secara konvensional. Dinyatakan pula bahwa shariah screening process memberikan pengaruh positif terhadap kinerja portofolio saham syariah. Namun, berdasarkan pengamatan awal dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang, meskipun telah melalui serangkaian tahapan screening process, pergerakan JII cenderung memiliki pola yang hampir sama dengan pola pergerakan IHSG. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan model Vector Autoregressive (VAR) dan Impulse Response Functions. Indikator makroekonomi global direpresentasikan oleh harga minyak dunia, Fed Fund Rate, dan indeks Dow Jones, sedangkan indikator makroekonomi Indonesia direpresentasikan oleh tingkat inflasi dan nilai tukar. Berdasarkan model VAR, satu-satunya variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pergerakan kedua indeks saham tersebut adalah Indeks Dow Jones. Berdasarkan Impulse Respons Function, respon JII terhadap shock variabel makroekonomi, dapat dikatakan sama dengan respon IHSG. Setelah terjadi shock pada suatu variabel makroekonomi, baik JII maupun IHSG, ternyata tidak mampu kembali pada garis keseimbangan jangka panjang secara natural. Hal ini disebabkan tidak adanya perbedaan yang prinsipil dalam mekanisme perdagangan yang berlaku di Bursa Efek Indonesia baik untuk JII maupun IHSG. Namun demikian, JII tetap memiliki keunggulan karena telah melalui screening process yang pada dasarnya lebih menekankan pada aspek kehalalan.

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The main distinction between JII and JCI is that JII has the screening process, while JCI does not have one. Some previous studies concluded that JII has lower risk and lower volatility compared to conventional JCI. Moreover, it is stated that the sharia screening process give positive impact toward the performance of sharia stock. However, based on preliminary observation, in short term and long term, the movement of JII has similar pattern as the one of JCI pattern. This study uses Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and Impulse Response Functions. In this study, the crude oil price, Fed Fund Rate, and Dow Jones Index represent the global macroeconomic indicator, while inflation rate and exchange rate represent the indicator of Indonesia?s macroeconomic. By using VAR model, this study found that stock index movement, both of JII and JCI, are significantly influenced by Dow Jones Index. In addition, by using Impulse Response Functions, JII's response toward shock of global and Indonesia?s macroeconomic variables, which are used in this study, gives almost similar result toward the JCI's response. Overall, after the shock occured on macroeconomic variable, both JCI and JII, are unable to revert to the long term equilibrium line naturally. This is related to the trading mechanism at Jakarta Stock Exchange, which has no difference principle for both of JII and JCI. However, JII still has an advantage due to the screening process which give emphasis to "halal" aspect.

Abstrak :
Penelitian ini mengetahui ada tidaknya pengaruh shock terhadap fluktuasi faktor-faktor GDP, inflasi, SBI dan Kurs terhadap USD terhadap NPF dan FDR. Pada saat krisis maupun pasca krisis ekonomi. Untuk tujuan tersebut maka dilakukan pengujian menggunakan Vector Autoregressive (VAR) dengan menggunakan data bulanan dan kwartalan dari Januari 1997 hingga Juli 2008 yang diambil dari laporan keuangan BMI dan BI. Hasil pengujian menunjukkan bahwa dari masing-masing penelitian terlihat bahwa secara umum variabel NPF dan FDR merespon setiap shock yang ditimbulkan oleh masing-masing variabel ekonomi makro. Dengan demikian bahwa dari hasil penelitian tidak ada variabel ekonomi makro yang dominan terhadap NPF dan FDR.

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This research was done to see, whether several factors such as GDP, inflation, SBI and currency had their influence on USD, NPF and FDR during and after the economic crisis. To find out whether there are any correlations or not, this research used Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method, by using monthly and quarterly data from January 1997 to July 2008. Which taken from BMI and BI financial reports. The test results showed that in general, macro economic variable had no influence toward NPF and FDR, both during and after the economic crisis. Even though from the test results, there is a GDP variable which had positive correlation both during and after the economic crisis. However, it has no significant impact on NPF and FDR. Perhaps there is another variable which become internal strength from BMI in completing its finance.

Abstrak :
Tesis ini membahas hubungan kausal antara kebijakan dividen terhadap dividen, investasi dan utang (long term debt), kebijakan investasi terhadap keputusan dividen, investasi dan utang (long term debt) dan kebijakan pendanaan terhadap keputusan dividen, investasi dan utang jangka panjang. Dalam pengujian kebijakan deviden, investasi dan utang (long term debt1, sampel yang digunakan adalah seluruh perusahaan manufaktur yang terdiri dari tiga sub sektor yaitu industri barang konsumsi, industri dasar dan kimia serta berbagai industri dengan jumlah sampel 104 perusahaan manufaktur di periode 1997-2014). 2006. Variabel yang digunakan adalah dividen tunai yang dibayarkan perusahaan kepada pemegang saham, investasi dalam bentuk aset dan pendanaan dalam bentuk hutang jangka panjang. Pengujian ketiga variabel dividen, investasi dan pendanaan menggunakan Causality Ann Vector Autoregressive Amarah model dengan tingkat o = 10%, model sukses dalam memprediksi tiga variabel dividen, investasi dan utang jangka panjang, analisis dilakukan secara bersamaan. ......This thesis discusses the causal relationship between dividend policy on dividend, investment and debt (long term debt), investment policy on dividend decision, investment and debt (long term debt) and funding policy on dividend decision, investment and long term debt. In testing dividend, investment and debt policies (long term debt1, the sample used is all manufacturing companies consisting of three sub-sectors, namely the consumer goods industry, basic and chemical industry and various industries with a total sample of 104 manufacturing companies in the period 1997-2014). 2006. The variables used are cash dividends paid by the company to shareholders, investment in the form of assets and funding in the form of long-term debt.The test of the three dividend, investment and funding variables uses the Causality Ann Vector Autoregressive anger model with a rate of o = 10%, success model in In predicting the three variables of dividends, investments and long term debts, the analysis was carried out simultaneously.

Abstrak :
Skripsi ini menganalisis secara empiris hubungan harga minyak dunia West Texas Intermediate (WTI), nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (KURS), dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan. Periode data yang digunakan adalah Januari 2008 hingga Desember 2017 dengan metode Vector Autoregressive (VAR). Kausalitas Granger mengambarkan adanya hubungan satu arah antara IHSG dengan KURS dan terdapat pula hubungan kausalitas dua arah pada WTI dan KURS. Dari pengestimasian model VAR dapat disimpulkan bahwa IHSG dapat menjadi leading indicator terhadap variabel lainnya. Selain menggunakan VAR, penelitian ini juga menggunakan Impulse Response Function (IRF) dan Variance Decomposition (VD). Dari analisis IRF, didapatkan bahwa IHSG memberikan respon terhadap shock yang berasal dari IHSG itu sendiri. Sementara itu WTI dan KURS memberikan respon terhadap shock yang berasal dari IHSG, WTI dan KURS. Masing-masing respon tersebut menunjukkan laju perubahan variabel akan kembali ke titik keseimbangan (ekuilibrium) yang terjadi dalam jangka pendek. Sedangkan pada hasil analisis VD, masing-masing variabel menjadi kontribusi terbesar bagi pergerakan variabel itu sendiri. ......This thesis empirically analyzes the relationship between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) world oil prices, the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar, and the Composite Stock Price Index. The data period used is January 2008 to December 2017 with the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method. Granger Causality descibes a one-way relationship between JCI and KURS and there is also a two-way causality relationship between WTI and KURS. From estimating by the VAR model, it can be concluded that the JCI can be a leading indicator of other variables. In addition to using the VAR, this study also uses Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD). From the IRF analysis, it was found that the JCI gave a response to the shock originating from the JCI itself. Meanwhile, WTI and KURS provide responses to shocks from JCI, WTI and KURS. Each of these responses shows the rate of change in variables will return to the equilibrium point that occurs in the short term. While the results of the VD analysis, each variable becomes the biggest contribution to the movement of the variable itself.

Abstrak :
Faktor makroekonomi memiliki peran penting dalam pertumbuhan perkonomian sebuah negara. Hal ini secara tidak langsung juga menentukan kondisi dan aktivitas pasar modal negara tersebut. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh antara kebijakan moneter terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan IHSG pada Bursa Efek Indonesia BEI dengan menggunakan metode time series VAR Vector Autoregressive Representation dan data bulanan setiap variabel sebagai sampel selama periode 2009 ndash; 2016. Variabel dependen yang digunakan adalah Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan IHSG, sementara variabel independen yang digunakan merupakan variabel makroekonomi berupa variabel makroekonomi dengan 5 proksi, yaitu tingkat suku bunga SBI, jumlah uang beredar M2, inflasi, GDP riil, dan nilai tukar kurs. Hasil penelitian yang menemukan adanya kointegrasi kesetimbangan jangka panjang antara variabel makroekonomi dengan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan IHSG menunjukkan terdapat pengaruh signifikan antarvariabel yang menjadi indikator dari kestabilan suatu negara dan mempengaruhi tingkat return yang didapatkan pada pasar modal. ......Macroeconomic variable plays an important role in the economic growth of country. This indirectly also determines the condition and activities of the capital market. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the effect of monetary policy on Jakarta Composite Index JCI on Indonesian Stock Exchange BEI using time series VAR Vector Auto regression Representative method and monthly data of each variable as sample during period 2009 2016. Dependent variable used is Jakarta Composite Index JCI, while independent variable used is macroeconomic variable in the form of monetary policy with 5 proxies, i.e. interest rate SBI, money supply M2, inflation, real GDP, and exchange rates. The result found an existence of co integration long term equilibrium between monetary policies with Jakarta Composite Index JCI, in term of significant effects among these variables which consistent with the statement of Arbitrage Pricing Theory that macroeconomic factors become one affecting indicator of the stability rate of return earned on the capital market.

Abstrak :
Skripsi ini membahas hubungan kointegrasi dan kausalitas antara harga emas, harga minyak dunia, nilai tukar rupiah, dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan IHSG tahun 2007-2016. Penelitian ini adalah penelitian kuantitatif dengan data dari tahun 2007 hingga 2016. Data harga emas diperoleh dari World Gold Council, harga minyak dunia menggunakan West Texas Intermediate dari US Energy Information Administration, nilai tukar dari Bank Indonesia, serta IHSG dari laporan statistik Bursa Efek Indonesia. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa variabel harga emas, harga minyak dunia, nilai tukar rupiah, dan IHSG tidak memiliki hubungan kointegrasi dan variabel IHSG dan harga minyak dunia memiliki hubungan kausalitas terhadap nilai tukar rupiah. ......This thesis discusses the cointegration and causality relationship between gold price, crude oil price, rupiah exchange rate, and Indonesia Stock Exchange Composite Index IHSG period 2007 2016. This research is quantitative research with data from 2007 until 2016. Gold price data obtained from World Gold Council, crude oil price using West Texas Intermediate from US Energy Information Administration, exchange rate from Bank Indonesia, and IHSG from Indonesia Stock Exchange statistics report. The results of this study indicate that the variable gold price, crude oil prices, exchange rate of rupiah, and IHSG has no cointegration relationship and variable IHSG and crude oil price has causality relationship to rupiah exchange rate.