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"This paper builds a regional macroeconomic model of DKI Jakarta and attempts to analyze the impacts of declining DAU revenues on the overall DKI Jakarta economy. The model uses microeconomic foundations, consists of four blocks, and is made up by 48 behavioral equations and 23 identities. The model adapts Doubinis? Chicago Metropolitan Area econometric model with some modifications. Two Stage Least Squares Methods are employed to estimate both parameters and prediction power of the model. There are two scenarios designed for forecasting, first, the scenarios of constant DAU of Rp 773,02 billion, and second, the scenario of 20% DAU decline. Comparing the constant and the declining DAU scenarios, the DAU decline does affect the growth of manufacturing sector and its number of employment, government investments, expenditures, and revenues, and the overall regional economy. However, this decline does not affect the activities in the non-manufacture sector and its employment, local government taxes and charges, and private consumptions and investments. Even though it affects the regional economy but the negative impact on growth is still less than 20%. "

"The intergovernmental transfer system currently applied in Indonesia is intended to prevent the intervention of political powers. However, there are indications of political determinants behind central government transfers to sub-national governments. In order to prove the existence of these political factors, this research utilizes empirical panel data models of Dana Alokasi Umum (DAU), Dana Dekonsentrasi and Tugas Pembantuan using political variables. Results show that while there are no signicant political variables in the DAU and Dana Dekonsentrasi models, there is a political determinant behind the amount of Dana Tugas Pembantuan, where a higher seat share for the Golkar party representing a province in the national parliament will entitle the province to a relatively higher share of the Dana Tugas Pembantuan.

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Sistem transfer antarpemerintah di Indonesia dibuat dengan tujuan mencegah campur tangan politik terhadap sistem transfer pemerintah. Namun begitu, terdapat indikasi keberadaan determinan politik dalam menentukan transfer pemerintah pusat terhadap pemerintah daerah. Untuk membuktikan keberadaan faktor-faktor politik tersebut, digunakan model data panel yang berusaha menunjukkan determinan politik pada Dana Alokasi Umum (DAU) serta Dana Dekonsentrasi dan Tugas Pembantuan. Hasil studi menemukan bahwa tidak ada campur tangan politik dalam menentukan transfer DAU dan Dana Dekonsentrasi, namun ditemukan determinan politik pada Dana Tugas Pembantuan, di mana provinsi yang memiliki proporsi kursi Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (DPR) Partai Golkar yang lebih tinggi mendapatkan Dana Tugas Pembantuan yang lebih besar."

"Peran kota sebagai pusat aktivitas utama ekonomi dewasa ini, menjadi daya tarik mengapa pertumbuhan kota perlu diperhatikan. Kota memiliki populasi yang besar, dan cenderung meningkat pesat dari waktu ke waktu. Makalah ini mengkaji faktor-faktor yang menyebabkan pertumbuhan kota, serta mengkaji pola pertumbuhan kota di Indonesia.Pertumbuhan kota diukur menggunakan pertumbuhan populasi dan angkatan kerja. Hasil analisis memperlihatkan kepadatan penduduk dan spesialisasi ekonomi secara negatif signifikan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan kota. Sedangkan primacy, manufaktur dan tingkat pendidikan secara positif signfikan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan kota.Selain itu, pendapatan dan pengeluaran pemerintah tidak signifikan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan kota. Demikian pula, variabel geografis dan ukuran kota, yang juga tidak signifikan berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan kota."

"From January 1, 2001, when new autonomy laws were implemented, lndonesia began to move toward decentralization of what had been a highly decentralized. This policy adopts two complimentary laws. Law No.22/1999, which basically the devolution policy, has been accompanied by La No.25/1999, which basically reflect that decentralization policy in Indonesia has adopted the concept of ?money follows function?.Law No.25/1999 describe the fiscal decentralization process that will create a new intergovernmental transfer scheme between the central government and local government. Some of items in the law were really new ones such as the natural resources revenue sharing, income tax sharing, general allocation fund (OAF) and specifics allocation fund (SAF). The policies oftax and natural resource revenue sharing can result in fiscal imbalance among regions. Tax and natural resources revenue sharing will benefit only to urbanized and natural resources rich regions Because of it, Central Government created General Allocation Funds. This fund has block grant characteristic and will be given to regions by fiscal gap conception. The purpose is to equalize fiscal capacity among regions that in turn also can reduce disparity among them.The Simultaneous Macro Econometric Model is made for analyzing the fiscal decentralization impact to economic growth and region disparity. The policy simulation in this model used transfer fund from central government such as Tax Revenue Sharing, Natural Resource Revenue Sharing and General Allocation Fund. The simulation is carried out to see the optimality of various possible existing policies. The optimality is measured by evaluating the high rate of economic growth and low disparity."

"Undang-undang 22/0 dan 25/99 telab merubah pola hubungan pusat-daerah di Indoensia dari pola sentralistik menjadi desentralisis yang efektif berlaku sejak bulan Januari 2001. Lebih jauh pemerintah juga mengeluarkan Peraturan Pemerintah (PP) yang mengatur lebih detail tentang kewajiban dan kewenangan daerah, hutang daerah dan hal lainnya, selain beberapa sektor penting seperti sistem peradilan, agama, keamanan dan hal lain yang masih dibawah tanggung jawab dan kewenangan pemerintah pusat.Konsekuensi langsung dari perubahan ini adalah pemerintah harus mengatur pemerataan dan sustainabilitas anggaran antar daerah. Mengingat karakteristik antar daerah sangat bervariasi dalam hal kandungan sumber daya alam, dan sumber daya manusia, dan juga selepas krisis yang menerpa Indonesia, maka permasalahan yang dihadapi pemerintah pusat dalam menjalankan proses desentralisasi ini, menjadi tidak ringan.Satu hal yang jelas, implementasi proses desentralisasi ini, akan mengurangi penerimaan pemerintah pusat secara langsung sementara agenda peningkatan kesejahteraan, penurunan kesenjangan dan upaya peningkatan pertumbuhan lintas wilayah, sudah didepan mata."

"Matrices of International Trade model shows world equilibrium and the inter-linkage among countries through trade. This approach enable us to decompose trade multiplier into direct import requirement, indirect import requirement, internal and external propagation as components of total trade multiplier. We also can run growth simulation to identify the distribution of trade gain as previously applied by Miyazawa, Hewings and other authors. Using trade flow data from 178 countries, and focusing on the big five ASEAN, we conform the most important role of Singapore and Malaysia in this region. We also find the role of United States and Japan as biggest and most important trading partner. Unsurprisingly, growth simulation shows unequal trade gain distribution between ASEAN countries and their trading partner."

"Regional autonomy program is the form of fiscal decentralization policy in Indonesia, legally started with the law of Regional Government No.22/1999 about de-concentration azas, which imply power or authority sharing and No.25/1999 about decentralization, which imply financial sharing between central and regional government. Financial sharing is tax and natural resources sharing revenue. This financial sharing type can widen fiscal gap between regions. As the solution, the central government gives block grants. Interregional Input-Output (IRIO) model can be used to analyze the impact of fiscal decentralization policy on sectoral and regional linkages, multipliers, growth, equalization, and efficiency of the regional economy. The analysis use shock variables of inter-governmental transfer including tax sharing revenue, natural resources revenue and block grants. They are treated as an exogenous variable package by regional government expenditure. The expenditures are in the form of investment and consumption based on IRIO model to analyze the optimality of policy variation. The analysis shows that the optimality of growth, equalization, and economic efficiency will be reached if the allocation of inter-governmental transfer is exactly the same as the potency and linkages between sectors and regions. We find the current formulation of intergovernmental transfer by central government, potent to increase regional disparity. Central government should reformulate division of inter-governmental transfer to avoid fiscal decentralization to be contra productive policy."

"Labor absorption hardly depends on the economic capacity and in the absence of market imperfection, the labor will be allocated efficiently among sectors. However, the assumption is hardly found in reality, and this give us a space to identify the explanatory variable of labor absorption. This research analyze the sectoral labor absorption based on J. Ladent model that internalize the demographic variable together with economic variable. We apply this model to analyze the sectoral labor absorption in Cental Java using annual basis data from 1978-1999, and simulate the sectoral labor absorption under three different scenario; quo, optimist and pessimist scenario. The result shows labor absorption is highly correlated to labor quality, economic capacity and investment. Based on simulation, we-find that any shock on demographic or economic variable yield unequal impact on labor absorption accros sector. We find strong causality between GDP and national unemployment, and labor absorption. We also conform the lack of foreign capital investment as the main source of in-optimal leading sector development. "

"Adanya faktor skala ekonomi dalam pemilihan lokasi menyebabkan beberapa perusahaan yang sejenis memilih berada pada lokasi yang berdekatan, sehingga membawa dampak menurunnya biaya produksi perusahaan. Aglomerasi industri ini dapat menjelaskan mengapa suatu kota memiliki perusahaan yang jenisnya sama lebih dari satu, dan adanya kecenderungan bahwa kota akan berkembang di sekitar lokasi industri. Suatu kota industri yang besar terbentuk karena adanya aglomerasi ekonomi dalam produksi, dimana terdapat dua jenis aglomerasi ekonomi, yaitu localization economies dan urbanization economies.Analisis regresi data panel menunjukkan bahwa terdapat perbedaan hasil yang mendasar antara industri dengan klasifikasi ISIC 2 digit dengan industri berdasarkan klasifikasi ISIC 3 digit. Sub-sektor industri di DKI Jakarta yang mengalami aglomerasi industri ialah subsektor Industri Tekstil, Pakaian Jadi, dan Kulit, Industri Kertas dan Barang-Barang dari Kertas, Percetakan dan Penerbitan, Industri Kimia dan Barang-Barang dari Kimia, Petroleum, Batu Bara, Karet, dan Barang dari Plastik, Industri Barang-Barang dari Logam, Mesin dan Perlengkapannya, Industri Pengolahan Lainnya. Sedangkan sub-sektor Industri Makanan, Minuman Serta Tembakau, Industri Kayu dan Barang-Barang dari Kayu, Termasuk Alat-Alat Rumah Tangga dari Kayu, Industri Barang-Barang Galian Bukan Logam, dan Industri Dasar Logam tidak mengalami aglomerasi. Pada golongan pokok industri teridentifikasi tidak terjadi aglomerasi industri."

"This study aims (1) to construct an Econometric Input-Output Model for Indonesia, that emphasizes the linkage between sectors, and (2) to analyze the impact of budget allocation on development expenditure to Indonesian's economy in 2002.

The model, constructed by combining the advantages of an input-output model and an econometric model, is called the Indonesian Econometric Input-Output Model or "Model Input-Output Ekonometrika Indonesia" (MIENA). MIENA consists of 112 dynamic simultaneous equations which utilize secondary data from 19SO-20UO. The equation parameters are estimated by using a combination of three estimation methods: (1) Ordinary Least Squares, (2) First Order of Autoregressive and (3) Second Order of Autoregressive. The model is validated by the Gauss-Siedel Method, it is then used for protections and policy impact analysis simulations on budget development expenditure and world economic conditions.

The study finds that the impact of budget reallocation for development expenditure (final demand, output, income, and sectoral employment) is better than the budget allocation for development expenditure in the National Budgetary Plan (RAP3N) for 2002. The plantation sector contributed the most to supporting output multiplier and high income. The food, beverages, and tobacco industries contributed the most to yield a high employment multiplier."