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"ABSTRACTWe develop a financial condition index (FCI) and examine the effects of monetarypolicy on financial conditions in Indonesia. We show that our FCI tracks financialconditions quite well because it captures key financial events (the Asian financialcrisis of 1997 - 1998, the Indonesian banking crisis, and the global financial crisis andits aftermath). A unique feature of our FCI is that it is quarterly and thus offers nearreal-time development in financial conditions. We also show that monetary policyshapes the FCI. A contractionary monetary policy leads to unfavourable financialconditions during the first two quarters, followed by favourable financial conditionsfor nearly three quarters. This finding is robust to an alternative identification strategy.Our findings highlight the critical role of the monetary authority in shaping financialconditions in Indonesia."

"We examine the usefulness of large-scale inflation forecasting models in Indonesia within an inflation-targeting framework. Using a dynamic model averaging approach to address three issues the policymaker faces when forecasting inflation, namely, parameter, predictor, and model uncertainties, we show that large-scale models have significant payoffs. Our in-sample forecasts suggest that 60% of 15 exogenous predictors significantly forecast inflation, given a posterior inclusion probability cut-off of approximately 50%. We show that nearly 87% of the predictors can forecast inflation if we lower the cut-off to approximately 40%. Our out-of-sample forecasts suggest that large-scale inflation forecasting models have substantial forecasting power relative to simple models of inflation persistence at longer horizons."