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Abstrak :
ABSTRACT
This paper calculates and analyzes the Index of Syariah Financial Inclusion (ISFI) covering three dimensions; the accessibility, the availability and the usage of Islamic banking services. Using the annual data in province level in Indonesia during the period of 2010-2015, this paper found that the Index of Syarial Financial Inclusion is generally low and Bangka Belitung is the most financially inclusive province of Indonesia. Furthermore, the results show that the Index of Syariah Financial Inclusion is positively correlated with the Human Development Index. This conclusion suggests the promotion of Syariah Financial Inclusion to be a policy priority in Indonesia to achieve the central goals of inclusive growth, welfare and economic development.

Abstrak :
Using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data of 82 Indonesian cities, we propose the hypothesis of heterogeneity in the cities’ contribution to the aggregate Indonesian CPI. Using a price discovery model fitted to monthly data, we discover that (1) of the 23 cities in the province of Sumatera, five contribute 44% and nine contribute 66.7% to price changes, and (2) of the 26 cities in Java, four alone contribute 41.6% to price changes. Even in smaller provinces, such as Bali and Nusa Tenggara, one city alone dominates the change in aggregate CPI. From these results, we draw implications for maintaining price stability.

Abstrak :
This study estimates the forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for Sri Lanka using monthly data from 1980 to 2017. The results indicate that the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) followed the Taylor rule to set interest rates. Our forwardlooking model estimations show that the coefficient on inflation increases over time, reflecting the greater focus on price stability by the bank. The results suggest that the CBSL reacted to nominal exchange rate depreciation by tightening monetary policy. Although the degree of interest rate smoothness gradually decreases over time, the study shows that the CBSL did not react to movements in fiscal deficit during the period under investigation. This finding suggests that the inclusion of fiscal deficit in the Taylor rule does not provide a better specification of the policy reaction function in Sri Lanka.

Abstrak :
We examine the usefulness of large-scale inflation forecasting models in Indonesia within an inflation-targeting framework. Using a dynamic model averaging approach to address three issues the policymaker faces when forecasting inflation, namely, parameter, predictor, and model uncertainties, we show that large-scale models have significant payoffs. Our in-sample forecasts suggest that 60% of 15 exogenous predictors significantly forecast inflation, given a posterior inclusion probability cut-off of approximately 50%. We show that nearly 87% of the predictors can forecast inflation if we lower the cut-off to approximately 40%. Our out-of-sample forecasts suggest that large-scale inflation forecasting models have substantial forecasting power relative to simple models of inflation persistence at longer horizons.

Abstrak :
This paper investigates the role of financial technology (FinTech) in propelling economic growth in Indonesia from 1998 to 2018. The FinTech industry employs a technology-based business model to provide financial services, including lending, payment, investment, and financing services. The study is motivated by endogenous growth theory, which seeks to explain technology as the most important driver of economic growth. The study finds that FinTech startups are positively correlated with Indonesia’s economic growth. FinTech firms in their first year are found to be disruptive, but they fail to have serious consequences on Indonesia’s economic growth; however, they seem to significantly encourage economic growth in their second year. These findings are derived after accounting for other important growth determinants, namely, capital per labor, foreign direct investment (FDI), stock market development, and trade openness.

Abstrak :
This paper suggests a new agenda for constructing early warning models (EWMs) to enhance their effectiveness in predicting financial crises. The central argument of the new agenda aims to eradicate the weaknesses of existing EWMs, since their failure to predict the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 demonstrates the need to improve their efficiency. We document the history of EWMs and propose a new agenda as follows: 1) the accurate measurement of a financial crisis, 2) implementation of a fourthgeneration crisis model to capture the dynamic nature of the financial crisis, and 3) the inclusion of interconnectedness/contagion variables as explanatory variables for the financial crisis.

Abstrak :
Conventional monetary models focus on interest rates and omit monetary aggregates from policy discussions. This paper examines whether augmenting the measure of monetary policy with monetary aggregates helps determine more robust links between policy and economic fluctuations. After constructing the Divisia money index for the UK, I employ structural vector autoregression to identify two different UK monetary policy regimes. Inclusion of this (correct) measure of money and disentangling the money supply from demand resolve the price and liquidity puzzles. The results point to the informational content embedded in monetary aggregates, suggesting they should be taken into account in evaluations of monetary policy.

Abstrak :
This paper empirically analyses the role of Islamic banking in financial intermediation costs as measured by net interest margins for a leading dual banking country, Malaysia. Controlling for theoretically motivated determinants of the margins, the paper compares the interest/financing margins of conventional and Islamic banks and examines the impacts of Islamic banking presence on bank margins. The analysis provides evidence of the higher margins of Islamic banks compared to those of conventional banks. Further, the difference in bank margins between the two types of banks can be attributed to differences in market power, operating costs, and diversification. Finally, Islamic banking presence or penetration, as represented by the ratio of Islamic financing to aggregate bank credit/financing and, alternatively, the share of Islamic banking assets, is robustly associated with lower bank margins, on average. These results bear important implications for the development of the Islamic banking industry and in fostering the efficient allocation of financial resources by the banking system.