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"Penelitian ini menganalisis perilaku perusahaan dalam melakukan forestalling dalam berbagai kondisi struktur tarif cukai spesifik multitier di Indonesia. Hal tersebut dilakukan perusahaan sebagai bentuk antisipasi terhadap perubahan tarif cukai dan Harga Jual Eceran yang ditetapkan pemerintah. Kebijakan waktu pengumuman, penyederhanaan tier dan batas produksi juga memberikan insentif dan disinsentif bagi perusahaan untuk melakukan forestalling. Untuk melihat pengaruh perubahan struktur tarif tersebut digunakan data CK-1 pemesanan pita cukai yang diperoleh dari Direktorat Jenderal Bea dan Cukai DJBC , Kementerian Keuangan, sejak tahun 2009 sampai 2017. Hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan tarif cukai mendorong perusahaan untuk melakukan forestalling. Sementara kebijakan harga jual eceran, waktu pengumuman yang lebih lama serta selisih antara total produksi dan batas produksi menahan perusahaan untuk melakukan forestalling. Kebijakan simplifikasi dan peningkatan batas produksi mampu meredam derajat forestalling yang tinggi.

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This research analyzes tobacco industry behavior in forestalling in various condition of specific tariff structure of multitier in Indonesia. Forestalling developed by the firm as a anticipation of changes in excise tariffs and minimum retail price set by the government. The announcement time policy, tier simplification and production limits also provide incentives and disincentives for firm to do forestalling. To analyze the effect of change of tariff structure, CK 1 data ordering of excise band obtained from Directorate General of Customs and Excise DJBC , Ministry of Finance, from 2009 until 2017. Empirical result indicates that excise tariff policy encourages firm increase degree of forestalling . While the minimum retail price policy, longer announcement time as well as the difference between total production and production limits hold companies to forestalling. The policy of simplification and increased production limits can reduce the high degree of forestalling. "

"[ABSTRAKLPG merupakan salah satu bahan bakar yang digunakan untuk memasakoleh rumah tangga di Indonesia. Pemerintah menetapkan harga jual eceran LPGadalah sebesar Rp 4.250/kg atau Rp 12.750/tabung di penyalur, sementara hargajual di tingkat sub penyalur ditetapkan oleh Pemerintah Daerah melalui penetapanHET (harga eceran tertinggi), yang mungkin berbeda dari satu daerah ke daerahlain, dan untuk pengecer belum diatur. Tujuan kajian ini yaitu untuk mendapatkangambaran harga eceran LPG yang wajar ditinjau dari biaya distribusi LPG daripenyalur ? sub penyalur - pengecer. Metodologi yang digunakan yaitupenghitungan biaya distribusi LPG (biaya investasi, transportasi, dan logistik)kemudian melakukan analisa keeekonomian. Untuk mencari harga jual yangwajar, ditetapkan IRR terlebih dahulu, kemudian dilakukan trial hinggadidapatkan harga jual sesuai IRR yang ditetapkan yang besarnya 16,5%. Darianalisa keekonomian, untuk penyalur, sub penyalur yang tidak mengantarkanLPG 3 kg, dan pengecer telah ekonomis, sementara untuk sub penyalur yangmengantarkan LPG 3 kg belum ekonomis. dari penghitungan harga jual, hargajual yang wajar di penyalur sebesar Rp 14.254/tabung, di sub penyalur yangmengantar LPG 3 kg sebesar Rp 17.420/tabung, sub penyalur yang tidakmengantar sebesar Rp 15.645, dan pengecer sebesar Rp 16.423/tabung

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ABSTRACTLPG (Liquified Petroleum Gas) is one of fuels used for cooking by households inIndonesia. The government sets the retail price of LPG is Rp 4,250 / kg or Rp12,750 / cylinder at distributor level, while the selling prices at the level of subdistributorsis set by the local government through the establishment of HET(highest retail price), whic may be different from one region to another region andfor retailers have not been set yet. The absence of government control for settingthe price at causing an unexpected costumer cost, because sub-distributors andretailers can take an unfair margin (profit) . The purpose of this study is to obtaina reasonable retail price of LPG, perspectively distributor, sub distributor, andretailer levels. Calculations used data of LPG distribution costs (investment cost,transportation cost, and logistic cost), from which economic analysis was carriedout. To find a reasonable selling price, the IRR is set first, and then conducting atrial to obtain selling price corresponding IRR already set (IRR 16,5%). From theeconomic analysis, it is shown that the business of distributors, retailers, and subdistributorswithout delivering LPG is economical, while for sub-distributors whodeliver LPG is not economical. The selling price calculation found that thereasonable price at distributor level is Rp 14,254/cyinder, at sub-distributor levelis Rp17,420/cylinder, and without delivering lpg sub-distributor level isRp 15, 645/cylinder, and at retailer level is Rp 16, 423 / cylinder;LPG (Liquified Petroleum Gas) is one of fuels used for cooking by households inIndonesia. The government sets the retail price of LPG is Rp 4,250 / kg or Rp12,750 / cylinder at distributor level, while the selling prices at the level of subdistributorsis set by the local government through the establishment of HET(highest retail price), whic may be different from one region to another region andfor retailers have not been set yet. The absence of government control for settingthe price at causing an unexpected costumer cost, because sub-distributors andretailers can take an unfair margin (profit) . The purpose of this study is to obtaina reasonable retail price of LPG, perspectively distributor, sub distributor, andretailer levels. Calculations used data of LPG distribution costs (investment cost,transportation cost, and logistic cost), from which economic analysis was carriedout. To find a reasonable selling price, the IRR is set first, and then conducting atrial to obtain selling price corresponding IRR already set (IRR 16,5%). From theeconomic analysis, it is shown that the business of distributors, retailers, and subdistributorswithout delivering LPG is economical, while for sub-distributors whodeliver LPG is not economical. The selling price calculation found that thereasonable price at distributor level is Rp 14,254/cyinder, at sub-distributor levelis Rp17,420/cylinder, and without delivering lpg sub-distributor level isRp 15, 645/cylinder, and at retailer level is Rp 16, 423 / cylinder, LPG (Liquified Petroleum Gas) is one of fuels used for cooking by households inIndonesia. The government sets the retail price of LPG is Rp 4,250 / kg or Rp12,750 / cylinder at distributor level, while the selling prices at the level of subdistributorsis set by the local government through the establishment of HET(highest retail price), whic may be different from one region to another region andfor retailers have not been set yet. The absence of government control for settingthe price at causing an unexpected costumer cost, because sub-distributors andretailers can take an unfair margin (profit) . The purpose of this study is to obtaina reasonable retail price of LPG, perspectively distributor, sub distributor, andretailer levels. Calculations used data of LPG distribution costs (investment cost,transportation cost, and logistic cost), from which economic analysis was carriedout. To find a reasonable selling price, the IRR is set first, and then conducting atrial to obtain selling price corresponding IRR already set (IRR 16,5%). From theeconomic analysis, it is shown that the business of distributors, retailers, and subdistributorswithout delivering LPG is economical, while for sub-distributors whodeliver LPG is not economical. The selling price calculation found that thereasonable price at distributor level is Rp 14,254/cyinder, at sub-distributor levelis Rp17,420/cylinder, and without delivering lpg sub-distributor level isRp 15, 645/cylinder, and at retailer level is Rp 16, 423 / cylinder]"

"Impor bawang putih telah dilakukan oleh pemerintah Indonesia pada tahun 2011-2020 karena produksi dalam negeri hanya mencukupi sekitar tiga hingga lima persen dari kebutuhan masyarakat. Adanya tambahan pasokan bawang putih impor pada pasar dalam negeri akibat kebijakan impor tersebut diduga akan menurunkan harga eceran bawang putih. Penelitian ini bertujuan menguji pengaruh volume impor bawang putih terhadap harga eceran bawang putih di Indonesia. Dengan menggunakan metode Distributed Lag Model (DL-Model) dan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) serta data bulanan periode Januari 2011-Desember 2020, penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa pengaruh volume impor bawang putih mulai dapat menurunkan harga eceran bawang putih setelah satu bulan pelaksanaan impor. Pengaruhnya terus signifikan hingga 6 bulan pasca pelaksanaan impor. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka waktu satu bulan (jangka pendek), kebijakan melakukan impor bawang putih belum mampu mempengaruhi harga eceran bawang putih. Namun dalam jangka panjang (setelah satu bulan hingga 6 bulan), kebijakan melakukan impor bawang putih signifikan mempengaruhi penurunan harga eceran bawang putih.

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Garlic import has been carried out by Indonesian government in 2011-2020 because domestic production is only sufficient for about three to five percent of people’s needs. The addition supply of imported garlic in domestic market due to the import policy is expected to reduce garlic retail price. This study aims to examine the effect of garlic import volume on garlic retail price in Indonesia. By using Distributed Lag Model (DL-Model) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) with monthly data for Januari 2011 – December 2020, this study shows that the effect of garlic imports volume begins to reduce the retail price of garlic after one month of import implementation. The effect continues to be significant up to 6 months after the import implementation. These results indicate, within a period of one month (short term), the policy of importing garlic has not been able to affect the retail price of garlic. However, in the long term (after one month to 6 months), the policy of importing garlic significantly affects the decline in retail prices of garlic."

"Penelitian ini melingkupi analisis sederhana namun cukup mendalam tentang bagaimana kondisi makro ekonomi negara Indonesia memberikan dampak terhadap hampir semua bisnis, baik secara positif, maupun negatif. Salah satu topik yang senantiasa menarik untuk diangkat adalah industri tembakau yang memberikan kontribusi terbesar dalam APBN Indoonesia. Beberapa temuan membuktikan bahwa ternyata industri tembakau yang secara signifikan dibatasi ruang geraknya melalui berbagai regulasi yang mengikat, ternyata tetap bertahan dan tetap mengalami pertumbuhan meski selama beberapa tahun terakhir tidaklah terlalu signifikan.Tahun 2005 sekali lagi terbukti sebagai tahun penuh tantangan sebagai dampak dari perubahan kondisi pcrekonomian secara umum yang memberikan tekanan tersendiri terhadap industri tembakau sebagaimana halnya dengan industri lain di Indonesia. Industri tembakau terus mengalami pertumbuhan meski dengan angka yang tertekan secara signifikan di akhir kuartal kecmpat tahun 2005, seining dengan peningkatan harga jual Bahan Bakar Minyak yang menggerakkan laju inflasi, Industri juga harus menghadapi tantangan yang berasal dari peningkatan prosentase pajak yang dibebankan terhitung sejak bulan Juli 2005. Pemerintah mengumumkan kenaikan Harga Jual Eceran Rokok sebesar 15%, setelah dua tahun terakhir produsen mengupayakan untuk tetap menjaga stabilitas harga procluknya serta membatasi diri terhadap ekspansi pasar secara keseluruhan. Sehagai konsekuensinya, saat ini industri tembakau sedang dihadapkan pada prospek stagnasi yang potensial terjadi terhadap daya beli konsumen seiring dengan peningkatan laju inflasi.Untuk menjadi lebih fokus dalam membahas topik tentang industri tembakau, penelitian ini akan mengambil sampel PT British Amarican Tobacco Indonesia, Tbk (PT BATI) sebagai objek yang akan diteliti.PT BATI telah beroperasi selama lebih dari 88 tahun dan secara konstan dan konsisten mempertahankan sejarah dan nilai yang diyakininya yang diterjemahkan kedalam regulasi untuk memproduksi berbagai macam merek dalam lini produk rokok putih, dengan dilingkupi oleh standar rata kelola perusahaan yang tinggi. Di akhir tahun 2005, PT BATI telah berhasil mempertahankan pangsa pasar sebesar 31% dalam industri rokok putih di Indonesia.Penelitian ini akan menyoroti lebih dalam tentang analisis fundamental saham PT BATI dengan menggunakan Discounted Cash Flow untuk mendapatkan nilai Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF), sehingga di akhir perhitungan akan dapat ditemukan berapa sebenarnya nilai intrinsik dari saham BATI. Metode ini digunakan sebagai salah satu alat untuk melakukan proyeksi terhadap kondisi keuangan perusahaan di masa yang akan datang. Sedangkan biaya modal, akan digunakan Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), sementara tingkat rcsiko saham dircpresentasikan oleh nilai Beta. Pengukuran yang dilakukan juga melibatkan beberapa asumsi makro seperti: Produk Domestik Bruto, Suku Bunga Bank Indonesia, tingkat inflasi, nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar Amerika, serta prosentase Harga Jual Eceran (HJE) khusus untuk produk rokok.Dalam melakukan proyeksi terhadap kondisi masa datang, penelitian ini menggunakan 3 skenario: Most Likely, Optimistic, dan Pessimistic. Dengan mengambil due date per tanggal 27 Desember 2005, ternyata saham BATI yang diperdagangkan di BEJ ditutup dalam kondisi Overvalue, di mana harga saham ditutup pada level RP 6.500,00 sementara nilai intrinsik dengan menggunakan skenario Most Likely adalah Rp 6.287,00.Sebagai hasil akhir, penelitian ini memberikan rckomendasi bagi para Investor untuk melepas saham BATI karena nilainya saat ini sedang berada di atas nilai intrinsiknya. Sementara untuk PT BATI sendiri, Peneliti menyarankan agar perusahaan mencari alternatif strategi dalam upaya mempertahankan pangsa pasar yang ada, lebih jauh lagi, agar perusahaan dapat bertahan di dalam intensitas persaingan yang semakin tinggi.

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This study covers simple analysis on how macroeconomics condition of Indonesia affects almost every kind of business in positive or negative way. One of interesting subject to discuss is tobacco industry, which contributes the highest percentage of APBN. The evidence founded that tobacco industry which is significantly affected with tight regulatory keep on surviving and reaches its business growth.The Year 2005 proved once again to be a challenging year as the impact of general economic change placed pressure upon tobacco industry and almost all industries as well. The industry continued to grow although the rate of growth was significantly reduced in the fourth quarter of 2005 as fuel price increases drove up inflation. The Industry faced an additional challenge through an excise tax increase effective from July 2005. The Government announced at mid year a 15% increase in the Retail Price (HJE) after virtually two consecutive years of price stability and an expansion in the total market. As a consequence, the industry now faces the prospect of potential stagnation of consumer purchasing power if inflation continues to rise.In order to be more focus in array of discussion, this study take PT British American Tobacco Indonesia, Tbk (PT BATI) as subject to he discussed. PT BATI has operated in Indonesia for 88 year and constantly continues their history and regulation to produce range of white cigarette products while operating with the highest standards of corporate governance. At the end of year 2005, PT BATI has succeeded to maintain 31% market share in white cigarette industry.We will look closely to fundamental analysis of PT BATI?s stock with using Discounted Cash Flow to find Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) method as one of some ways to forecast cash flow of the company in the up-coming years. To support financial needs, Company uses both external and internal equity and liability. To measure Cost of capital, researcher uses Weighted Average Cost of Capital, and coefficient Beta represents the risk of individual equity (BATI's Stock). The measurement will also include some macroeconomics assumptions, such as: Gross National Product, Bank Indonesia commercial rate, inflation rate, currency rate (Indonesian Rupiah to American Dollar), and percentage of Retail Price (HJE) for cigarette products.In forecasting the future condition, this study uses three possible scenarios: Most Likely, Optimistic, and Pessimistic. The result of measurement shows that as per December 27 2005, BATI's stock traded in Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX) closed in overvalued condition. Using Most Likely scenario, intrinsic value per share was Rp 6.287, 00 and market stock price closed at Rp 6.500,00.As a result, this study recommends Investors to sell BATI's stock to raise gain in their investment due to overvalued of BATI's Stock at closing price as per December 27, 2005. For PT BA TI, this study recommends company to search brand new strategy to gain higher percentage of market share in white cigarette industry, even more fly to create a new playground out of current industry's intensity of rivalry."