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"Discover a strategic planning method called scenario planning that is used to plan for the future of an organization while embracing uncertainty. A case study of the Royal Dutch/Shell Group illustrates the scenario planning method. And a checklist of trigger questions helps you identify organizational assumptions in the scenario planning process."

"This is the first book focused on how to do and use scenario planning - which is one of the most widely used tools in the world for strategic planning, change management, innovation, problem solving, and similar purposes - for social change at the community, national, and global levels. Adam Kahane is one of the world's pioneers and leaders on this topic and he is the author of two bestselling books."

"Abstract. The regional income of the Berau Regency has been depending on the mining sector for last five years. Unfortunately, both the value and quality of the mining sector are continuously declining. These conditions threaten the economic sustainability of the Berau Regency. The eco-tourism sector, if developed by proper management especially in terms planning, may be the best way to accommodate those threats. Scenario Planning is one of suitable planning approaches that are much more capable to accommodate the complexity and the uncertainty in comparison to the conventional approach. Scenario Planning is seldom used in Indonesia, especially in tourism planning. Scenario Planning in this research paper is using the TAID method that includes tracking, analyzing, imaging and deciding. Data were collected by interviews, secondary data and observation in order to fulfill tracking step. The output of tracking step will be analyzed by cross-impact analysis in order to build scenarios in analyzing step. The output of analyzing step is used to make a vision and formulate the strategies. This paper offers four alternatives of strategies, which are Dissemination, Optimization, Strengthening and Reform. This paper also provides descriptions of the conditions of the Derawan Islands District in the next 10 years through the lenses of different perspectives of planning approach. This can be used as one of the considerations for the government to develop eco-tourism in the Derawan Islands District.Abstrak. Pendapatan regional Kabupaten Berau bergantung pada sektor tambang pada lima tahun terakhir. Faktanya, Kualitas dan Nilai batubara terus menurun. Kondisi ini menjadi ancaman tersendiri terhadap keberlanjutan perekonomian di Kabupaten Berau. Pada tulisan ini disebutkan bahwa pengembangan ekowisata melalui manajemen yang tepat khususnya pada level perencanaan merupakan upaya yang bijak untuk menjawab ancaman tersebut. Perencanaan Skenario merupakan salah satu pendekatan yang relevan pada kasus ini, karena lebih mampu mengakomodir tingginya kompleksitas dan ketidakpastian ekowisata jika dibandingkan dengan pendekatan perencanaan konvensional lain seperti Perencanaan Strategis. Penggunaan Perencanaan Skenario dalam perencanaan pariwisata di Indonesia terbilang langka. Perencanaan Skenario pada tulisan ini menggunakan metode TAID yaitu tracking, analyzing, imaging dan deciding. Data pada tulisan ini dikumpulkan melalui wawancara, data sekunder dan observasi untuk memenuhi tahapan tracking. Keluaran tahapan tracking dianalisis menggunakan cross-impact untuk membangun skenario di tahapan analysing. Keluaran tahapan analysing menjadi input perumusan visi dan strategi pada tahap imaging dan deciding. Tulisan ini menawarkan empat alternatif strategi pengembangan ekowisata, yaitu Diseminasi, Optimalisasi, Penguatan dan Reformasi serta menggambarkan kondisi kepariwisataan Kecamatan Kepulauan Derawan satu dekade kedepan melalui sudut pandang pendekatan perencanaan berbeda. Hal ini dapat menjadi konsiderans pemerintah dalam mengembangkan ekowisata di Kecamatan Kepulauan Derawan."

"This work presents cases studies of applications of geotechnology such as geography Information systems, virtual reality and cellular automaton and multi-agent systems in the field of urban planning and design.These are joint research presentations with students and colleagues from Kanazawa University. All these case studies are about application in Japanese or Chinese cities, which are on-field examples reflecting the enormous spread of geo-computation technology. Nevertheless, the concepts have wide applicability to other contexts. The works can be classified into three types of Geotechnological applications at different levels of urban spaces, which are relevant to different kinds of urban planning and development projects. The book is comprised of part 1 geosimulation and land use plan, part 2, geo visualization and urban design, part 3 geography information system and planning support."

"Introduction to performance-based scenario planning -- The theoretical foundations of scenario planning -- The performance-based scenario system -- Scenario case study -- Project preparation -- Scenario exploration -- Scenario development -- Scenario implementation -- Project assessment -- Managing scenario projects -- Human perceptions in the scenario system -- Initiating your first scenario project."

"Persoalan pendidikan menengah dalam hal akses dan kualitas pendidikan di Provinsi DKI Jakarta masih menjadi perhatian di Provinsi DKI Jakarta. Akses dan kualitas tersebut belum sepenuhnya merata dan dapat dinikmati oleh masyarakat luas karena masih banyak masyarakat utamanya peserta didik di DKI Jakarta yang belum dapat dan kesulitan untuk melanjutkan pendidikan hingga ke tingkat pendidikan menengah SMA atau SMK di DKI Jakarta. Adapun kondisi pada pendidikan menengah seperti SMA dan SMK di Provinsi DKI Jakarta masih memiliki kekurangan dalam hal pemerataan kualitas sehingga harus diperhatikan karena pendidikan tersebut merupakan bagian dari pembangunan manusia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memberikan gambaran mengenai kondisi pendidikan menengah SMA dan SMK di Provinsi DKI Jakarta serta perkembangan dihadapi oleh pendidikan menengah tersebut, pendidikan tentunya akan menghadapi perubahan yang sangat pesat serta masa depan yang tidak pasti serta sulit untuk dibayangkan. Penggunaan cara berpikir skenario yang dituangkan ke dalam model skenario terkait dapat menjawab hal tersebut. Penelitian ini menghasilkan empat model skenario dalam kebijakan pendidikan menengah yang bermula dari skenario optimistis hingga skenario pesimistis serta penelitian ini juga memaparkan langkah dan strategi terkait yang dilakukan oleh Pemerintah Provinsi DKI Jakarta dalam kebijakan dan pengelolaan pada pendidikan khususnya pada pendidikan menengah tersebut.

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The problem of secondary education in terms of access and quality of education in DKI Jakarta Province is still a concern in Jakarta Province. Access and quality are not yet entirely evenly distributed and can be enjoyed by the wider community because there are still many people, especially students in DKI Jakarta who have not been able to and have difficulty continuing their education up to the secondary education level of Senior High School (SMA) or Vocational School (SMK) in Jakarta. The conditions in secondary education such as SMA and SMK in Jakarta Province still have shortcomings in terms of quality distribution so it must be considered because education is part of human development. This study aims to provide an overview of the condition of high school and vocational secondary education in Jakarta Province and the developments faced by secondary education, education will certainly face very rapid changes and an uncertain future and it is difficult to imagine. The use of scenario thinking that is poured into the related scenario model can answer this. This research produces four scenario models in secondary education policy starting from an optimistic scenario to a pesimistic scenario and this study also describes the steps and related strategies taken by the Jakarta Government in policy and management of education, especially in secondary education."